The Title Race - 2021/22

[Tarzan41]

Liverpool will not drop 1 point and it’s a lot easier for them with the officials in there pocket we however have to work hard to get a result and Pep be telling his players we need to be scoring 3/4 goals a game so it takes the Var cheating out of the officials hands!

Since that 2-2 draw at home to Liverpool the feeling had after that result was we lost the league that day! Hope am wrong..

No. It’s impossible to drop one point

 

[Tangled up in blue.]

I agree, think Liverpool will edge all their remaining games if they beat Newcastle, which is their biggest challenge because of the short turnaround this week.

We have seen a few times before with City how the 12.30pm kick-off after the Wednesday can make a draw seem like a good result in the end.

Personally. I believe our toughest games our are next two, either side of the Real games.

A major game for Leeds, all contrived to see us fail in the 5.30pm kick-off, followed by an in-form, counter-attacking Newcastle at our place, with nothing to lose.

In all honesty I think weve got more chance of dropping points than the dippers

 

[tolmie's hairdoo]

In all honesty I think weve got more chance of dropping points than the dippers

If we blast Real out of sight tomorrow night, I doubt City will drop any points either.

 

[Cricket Blue]

In an ideal world
we win the LEAGUE
we win the CL
Chavs win the FA Cup
Leaves Dippers with the Mickey Mouse cup which upon a few weeks ago they didn't care for.

 

[Tangled up in blue.]

The fixtures have fallen very kindly for us. We have 4 days to prepare for Leeds. Liverpool have 70 hours to prepare for what is a tougher game at Newcastle. Then we both have a similar time span to each other to prepare for the following home prem games of which theirs (v Spurs) is the tougher. I can see us being 3 to 5 points clear by the evening of Sunday May 8.

Not if the officials have anything to do with it

 

[bluemcr]

Lets hope the officials do their job at Newcastle.

Exactly! They know that if they're playing shit they can dive and get a pen go on to win the game.

 

[jim_tolmies_perm]

In an ideal world
we win the LEAGUE
we win the CL
Chavs win the FA Cup
Leaves Dippers with the Mickey Mouse cup which upon a few weeks ago they didn't care for.

And then i woke up :-)

 

[Cricket Blue]

And then i woke up :-)

ah fuck em, in Pep we trust. He won't let us down. However can't legislate for VAR!!

 

[alexmcity]

The key is that nothing is certain: City/Liverpool may win all their games, but it's not highly likely (say 75%). It's more likely that City win all their games in comparison to Liverpool, but it's not guaranteed. And there is no recipe to win all games, for football involves luck (and VAR...).

The "if Liverpool/City win this game, then this will happen" takes are a bit naive, imo. Try to think in probabilities instead of relying on vague and unreliable intuitions. And take context into account: don't think of the difficulty of games in isolation, but try to factor in physical and mental fatigue from previous games. For instance, given that Liverpool's games vs Villa and Southampton come after a series of games, including games vs Spurs and Chelsea respectively, they may be more difficult than if considered out of context.

It's possible that Liverpool win everything, but it's quite unlikely (1/10). City have roughly 2.5 times better chance to win the double than Liverpool the quadruple. Everything is possible, some outcomes are significantly more likely than other outcomes, though.

Now, intuitions may be reliable at times. Personally, I have sometimes pretty strong intuitions, and they come true. But such intuitions (e.g., that Jesus will finish the season strongly, wrote about this already in March) are based on rational expectations (calculations), they are more rational than it may seem.

 

[cibaman]

The key is that nothing is certain: City/Liverpool may win all their games, but it's not highly likely (say 75%). It's more likely that City win all their games in comparison to Liverpool, but it's not guaranteed. And there is no recipe to win all games, for football involves luck (and VAR...).

The "if Liverpool/City win this game, then this will happen" takes are a bit naive, imo. Try to think in probabilities instead of relying on vague and unreliable intuitions. And take context into account: don't think of the difficulty of games in isolation, but try to factor in physical and mental fatigue from previous games. For instance, given that Liverpool's games vs Villa and Southampton come after a series of games, including games vs Spurs and Chelsea respectively, they may be more difficult than if considered out of context.

It's possible that Liverpool win everything, but it's quite unlikely (1/10). City have roughly 2.5 times better chance to win the double than Liverpool the quadruple. Everything is possible, some outcomes are significantly more likely than other outcomes, though.

Now, intuitions may be reliable at times. Personally, I have sometimes pretty strong intuitions, and they come true. But such intuitions (e.g., that Jesus will finish the season strongly, wrote about this already in March) are based on rational expectations (calculations), they are more rational than it may seem.

I think there’s also an expectation that if one team drops points the other team won’t. That might not true. In 11/12, after we lost at Arsenal, I was convinced that we had blown any chance of winning the league. But then United lost at Wigan. We started playing with freedom they got the jitters. I’ve always thought that if we hadn’t lost at Arsenal, United would have beaten Wigan. It would still have been a 5 point gap but without the momentum change

It wouldn’t surprise me that if Liverpool or City drop points, the other will also drop points