The Title Race - 2021/22

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To call the title race over with 17 matches to go and a potential 8 point lead would be very Raggish.

I seem to recall a situation a decade back when a local side had an 8 point lead with 6 matches to go and still lost it. They also blew a big lead in 1967-68.

I know that Liverpool fans would be getting the 2021-22 League Championship t-shirts printed already as per 2013-14.

There is a long way to go before any title race can be called.
 
JGL07 said:
To call the title race over with 17 matches to go and a potential 8 point lead would be very Raggish.

I seem to recall a situation a decade back when a local side had an 8 point lead with 6 matches to go and still lost it. They also blew a big lead in 1967-68.

I know that Liverpool fans would be getting the 2021-22 League Championship t-shirts printed already as per 2013-14.

There is a long way to go before any title race can be called.
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absolutely. Anyone saying this is done doesnt know football properly imo. Not an insult either. Any one-event can change the tide, Pep knows this and we have to be steady and able to absorb anything that might upset what is a procession, but its important to keep it steady,.
 
David El Mago Silva said:
Chelsea are currently 10 points behind us and we play them next. Let's say we lose which isn't beyond the realms of possibility, they'll be 7 points behind us with 48 points still to play for. We'd still be in a strong position but bigger turnarounds have happened and at a far later stage in the season, namely 2011/12.

Liverpool are 11 points behind us with a game in hand. Let's say in the next round of fixtures we lose to Chelsea and Liverpool beat Brentford, both results hardly impossible, that makes it 8 points. Let's also assume for arguments sake that Liverpool win their game in hand to make it 5 points. Finally, we still have to play them later in the season and if we were to lose it would be 2 points.

Admittedly these are the worst case scenarios where everything goes against us but I don't think those results are that unrealistic. We also have to factor in the latter stages of the Champions League and potential absences due to injury or covid. Of course these apply to Liverpool and Chelsea just as much as they apply to us but we don't know how those three factors will impact on the rest of our respective seasons.

Having said all that, I am actually pretty confident we'll see it through but there's still a long way to go.
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Read this to ground your feet
 
it is not over by a long way, but we have it to lose only.
we will go through a bad patch, we will get butterflies.
not to win the league is throwing it away

id say 85 points will be enough but can see us getting above this
 
mccity said:
Well admittedly it does come off as overly confident, but assume we beat Chelsea and knock them out of the race.

Realistically the only way Liverpool catch up to us is if we replicate some of our worst ever form under Pep. And barring a huge injury crisis there's no reason why that would happen.

Of course, Liverpool could go on a huge winning run, but they obviously don't have it in them to do that this season. Even in games they've won they've looked worse than previously. They struggle against almost every decent side.

I do understand why some of the confidence can seem arrogant, but Pep Guardiola has zero history of ever losing a league from the position we're in now.
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I like the idea but until there is not enough points to go past us I’m saying nothing Haha
 
Let's compare how City and Liverpool fair in the 2nd half of recent seasons:

17/18

City 45 pts, Liverpool 40 pts

18/19

City 54 pts, Liverpool 46 pts

19/20

City 43 pts, Liverpool 44 pts

20/21

City 45 pts, Liverpool 35 pts


That is, IF City repeat their worst 2nd half of a season since 17/18 and Liverpool repeat their best 2nd half of a season since 17/18, then City will finish on 90 pts and Liverpool on 87 pts.

Generally, the probability of City winning the league is really high, without being a certainty of course. Personally, I think that Chelsea will finish above Liverpool due to their depth. While I agree with 358 that our chances are about 85 %, I reckon they underestimate Chelsea (2%) and overrate a bit Liverpool (13%).

The best statistical model is just a model, though. Reality is less predictable than we would like it to be.

Edit: Our worst 2nd half of a season under Pep was in 16/17 when we won 39 pts. If we repeat it, then we'd finish on 86 pts which is likely to be enough for the title IF Liverpool don't repeat their best ever 2nd half of a season under Klopp (46 pts). Generally, City under Pep tend to fare better in the 2nd half of the season than Liverpool. The exception is 19/20 when we won 43 pts and they 44 pts.
 
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jimharri said:
We'd finish on 96 pts, wouldn't we? 53 pts at the moment, and we mustered 43 pts in 19/20
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We had 47 pts after 19 games this season, so we'd finish on 90 pts if we repeated the 2nd half of 19/20.
 
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