The Title Race - 2021/22

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Interesting when looking at remaining fixtures, I think we have the marginally kinder ones when you consider the potential for dropped points.

we have:
Spuds at home
United at home
Liverpool at home
Wolves away
West Ham away

other than that we have:
Everton away
CP away
Brighton at home
Burnley away
Watford at home
Leeds away
Newcastle at home
AV at home

Liverpool have:
Arsenal away (to be rescheduled)
West Ham at home
Man Utd at home
City away
Spuds at home
Southampton away
Wolves Home

Norwich, Leeds, Watford, Everton All at home
Brighton, Villa and Newcastle away

I will be looking for Arsenal, Southampton and Wolves to do us a favour, particularly if it goes down to the wire (Saints and Wolves are their last two games).
 
It's all a bit Michael Owen in its banality, this statement, but I think both teams will drop points but the important part will be which team does it first.

It really is worth repeating that Liverpool have absolutely no room to maneuver on this. We can lose twice and still have the title in our own hands by beating Liverpool at home who have a pretty poor record at our place.

It is also worth repeating that the sort of run that City have made a habit of - 10+ game winning streaks - are really, really rare and Liverpool are the only team who have got close to that form in the past decade, and even then not for 2 years now.
 
Cobwebcat said:
Before Liverpool beat Leicester the percentage chance of City and Liverpool winning the league was 83% vs 16% with every other team in total providing the remains 1%. The predicted gap was 8 points.

After the game its now 83% vs 17% and 0% (rounding) and still 8 points.

Nothing significant changed as Liverpool were expected to beat Leicester at home.

Arsenal beating Wolves away was more of an upset increasing the expected gap between Arsenal and United from 3 points to 5 In the battle for 4th.
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Currently on 538

CITY 85%
Liverpool 15%

percentage went up for us slightly as we are performing better than Liverpool even though we both won
 
Cobwebcat said:
Currently on 538

CITY 85%
Liverpool 15%

percentage went up for us slightly as we are performing better than Liverpool even though we both won
Click to expand...
Probably less to do with performance and more to do with how stats are calculated given one fewer game is one fewer opportunity for city to drop points?
 
The narrative and mind games of how the race pans out changes a little now in that we've ended a run of about half a dozen league games where we've played before the dippers every time. Other than when we dropped points at Southampton, they've gone out each time knowing they've had to win just to keep pace with us rather than potentially gain ground which can be pretty dispiriting.
They now play before us for the next few games (other than the weekend they have the Carabao final) so they get the opportunity to put a little pressure on us. Of course that will hopefully backfire horribly as they feel they have to do exactly that and slip up themselves.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
Interesting when looking at remaining fixtures, I think we have the marginally kinder ones when you consider the potential for dropped points.
Click to expand...

They have to play 8 top half teams (and their record vs such teams hasn't been good this season), and we 6. They have to play 4 top half teams away from home, and we 2. Our league fixtures are definitely kinder. This doesn't guarantee much, but it makes it more difficult for them.

After we play United, we'll have to play 3 top half teams, and they 7! IF we are still 6-9 pts clear after the game vs United, we'd be in a very, very strong position. But even if we drop points, as long as we are still 1st after the game with Liverpool, we'd be in a good position, for their final 4-5 games are a little bit more difficult than ours.

Much depends on how both teams progress in the cups and their luck with draws. If our game with Liverpool is sandwiched between games vs Bayern in the CL, and if we have to play Chelsea in the FA Cup, Liverpool's fixture schedule may suddenly become less daunting than ours.
 
alexmcity said:
They have to play 8 top half teams (and their record vs such teams hasn't been good this season), and we 6. They have to play 4 top half teams away from home, and we 2. Our league fixtures are definitely kinder. This doesn't guarantee much, but it makes it more difficult for them.

After we play United, we'll have to play 3 top half teams, and they 7! IF we are still 6-9 pts clear after the game vs United, we'd be in a very, very strong position. But even if we drop points, as long as we are still 1st after the game with Liverpool, we'd be in a good position, for their final 4-5 games are a little bit more difficult than ours.

Much depends on how both teams progress in the cups and their luck with draws. If our game with Liverpool is sandwiched between games vs Bayern in the CL, and if we have to play Chelsea in the FA Cup, Liverpool's fixture schedule may suddenly become less daunting than ours.
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Absolutely spot on about cup draws. If big Edin knocks them out of the CL and we have to play Bayern or PSG or whoever in the QF then all of a sudden our game vs them becomes so much more difficult.

I’ve no doubt that our 2nd half capitulation to the rags in 2018 was due in part to the energy expended playing against the dippers and the fucking referee the previous midweek
 
Beat or draw with the dippers and we will win the league.

Lose and I think it's still 60/40 in our favour.
 
SterlingSilvas said:
Leeds game rearranged and Arsenal away moved for the Carabao.
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I like that United, Spuds, Arsenal, West Ham and Wolves are all in the running for 4th place. I think that will keep them honest to the end of the season. Brighton and Southampton will want to finish as high as possible as well. Brentford and below are all in a relegation dog fight which means I think only three clubs haven't that much to battle for. AV, Leicester and CP.

There might be some surprise results to come yet.
 
As much as I despise their mythology and the way their fans embrace hysteria, I still find it strange that so many City fans expect them to drop points.

They're a good team and this will go down to the wire
 
Scaring Europe to Death said:
As much as I despise their mythology and the way their fans embrace hysteria, I still find it strange that so many City fans expect them to drop points.

They're a good team and this will go down to the wire
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Did you see them at Burnley. Burnley had 3-4 one on ones with the keeper and missed them all.
 
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