Cobwebcat
Well-Known Member
They really don’t (sometimes) I know it sounds strange but it’s easy enough to Google..the maths are well known. Put it this way..you mention quite a few games not being enough and you are correct but wouldn’t it be strange if the number that was enough happened to be 38? The number of games that gives the best predictor of a team’s actual strength is nearer to 1.5 seasons but the results are only part of the equation.
Brighton and Brentford were the first to use data which best predicted what was likely to indicate future success and basically stripped most of the luck out of results. In the long run performance (of which xG is a big part) is a much better predictor of how good your team is than the result.
A clever club such as City would not overreact to a run of bad results if the performances suggested that they were being unlucky. Likewise Brentford famously sacked a manager who was doing well results wise because they knew the team was under performing but was being lucky and that luck would not last. The fans went mad understandably but Brentford were correct and went on to gain promotion to the PL.
Tony Bloom and Matthew Benham have made billions on the back of knowledge like this and taking people’s money who insist it’s all bollocks. Thankfully our club know it’s not.
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