The Title Race 2022/23

[bluenova]

It's not 'under 50% for sure' though, is it? At all.

Winning all 8 games, and winning at Bayern, and winning a semi likely against Madrid?

It's definitely under 50%.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

I think people who are arguing that it doesn't change the arithmetic are once again falling into the trap of assuming the only points dropped will be in the game between us.

These dropped points matter because more points will be dropped. If we beat Arsenal and draw Brighton and Fulham, Arsenal only have to drop points once.

There are an enormous number of permutations for the remaining games but one thing for sure is that a 2pt swing either way in those permutations will be huge.

 

[Roy Munson]

It is massively under 50%. There has never been a football team in history for which winning 11 consecutive games would have over 50% odds. That would be absolutely mental. We would have to have 95%+ odds of winning every one of those 11 games. Including Real Madrid, Arsenal and Brighton. You wouldn't find 95%+ odds against any team in the league.

If you go by the bookies odds or the stat modellers like 538, it's only about 60%-70% likely based on form that we beat Arsenal at home. Using EuroClub stats our chances of just winning every remaining league game are about 7%.

Apart from the fact that we don't have to win 11 consecutive games.

 

[The perfect fumble]

 

[blueparrot]

arsenal can still go 7 points clear if they win friday night

Thats not the point, their cushion has gone with these 2 draws now every game is a must win for them, same as us, the pressure for them will ramp up now can they control it, we know we can.

 

[Impeccable One]

Let’s hope Rob Holding is starting at the Etihad a week on Wednesday, Erling will be kicking his lips.

That’ll be a red card !

 

[MaskedAguero10]

Now all we need to do is destroy the arse and leave them mentally wrecked, scared and shaking for next season at the prospect of having to face us all over again

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

It's in our hands. Even more so now.

If we beat Arsenal we can afford to drop points, perhaps draw at Brighton, and still win the title. We don't have to win all our matches now.

 

[Alfie Budd]

arsenal can still go 7 points clear if they win friday night

I said a fortnight ago that we needed them to drop points somewhere before the game at the Etihad or else they’d be coming into that with a points lead in double figures which is psychologically intimidating irrespective of how many games in hand you have.
The result at Anfield stopped that from being a possibility and today just feels like a bonus. There isn’t a City fan that wouldn’t have taken seven points behind with two games in hand a few weeks ago.
Now if Southampton were to somehow find a result on Friday…

 

[Keepingthefaithsince1976]

arsenal can still go 7 points clear if they win friday night

True...but City will have 2 games in hand plus Arsenal at the Etihad.