The Title Race 2022/23

[SkyBlueFlux]

It's not 'under 50% for sure' though, is it? At all.

It is massively under 50%. There has never been a football team in history for which winning 11 consecutive games would have over 50% odds. That would be absolutely mental. We would have to have 95%+ odds of winning every one of those 11 games. Including Real Madrid, Arsenal and Brighton. You wouldn't find 95%+ odds against any team in the league.

If you go by the bookies odds or the stat modellers like 538, it's only about 60%-70% likely based on form that we beat Arsenal at home. Using EuroClub stats our chances of just winning every remaining league game are about 7%.

 

[Alfie Budd]

We could be saying the same about Haaland's miss at Forest

True enough and if you look back further, both teams could cite moments like that since the season began.
But key missed chances grow in significance as a title race reaches its climax, from a psychological viewpoint if nothing else.

 

[vmsuhail]

arsenal can still go 7 points clear if they win friday night

Atleast it's not 9

 

[alexmcity]

It's not 'under 50% for sure' though, is it? At all.

If you give us 90% chance to win any of the remaining games, which would be optimistic, the overall chance to win all 8 league games would be 43%.

Arsenal are more likely to drop points, though. Think 88 pts will be enough. Our chance to win the league is over 60 % now.

 

[Keepingthefaithsince1976]

No we don't - a draw will do
They need to beat us though, wonder if that will be in our favour

I was stuck on the same point but thanks to the illumination of fellow bluemoon members I can now see the light.

 

[blueparrot]

Important for the title race that we stay in the CL, that Brighton away game looks to be our hardest so get it as late as possible in the season, we may not need a win by then.

Think by then Brentford away might possibly be our hardest, especially if their minds are on a cup final.

 

[SamBlue]

More twists and turns to com
Yet!

www.moretwistsandturnsto.com

Fixed it for you fella, no go and make some money.

 

[mcrpogue]

Moyes loves Man City

 

[vmsuhail]

I was stuck on the same point but thanks to the illumination of fellow bluemoon members I can now see the light.

A draw at the Etihad means the title will no longer be in our hands.

 

[BerkshireBlue]

That's why the Anfield game was a point gained for them. If they had lost, which they should've, then City only needed a draw at Etihad.

They've still got 4 hard games compared to our 3 and we don't have to worry about goal difference anymore