The Title Race 2022/23

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My predicition is we win every game and win the title by nine or ten points , the Goons will falter again at a motivated Forest , and it wouldnt surprise me if Pep also wants to match the 14 game winning running run from a couple of season ago.
If we go from eleven points behind in April to winning the league by ten points in May that would have been incomprehensible a couple of months ago , but that is what Pep and our players do , relentless.
 
We have just won 12 league games on the bounce, personally I think we will be ok
I'm with Chapo on this ; we need to get off the pitch , it's not over yet ; the Rags thought they'd won back in 2012 . . .
I'm not being pessimistic, just Old School (. . . you can take the man out of the Kippax , but, )
NEVER , EVER tempt fate
 
Gundogan is such a heavy goal scorer, I’d like to see the stats for first goal/ ma5h winning goal from him compared to goals where match already won
 
With hindsight, it looks like a number of factors (including what you have identified) conspired to cause Arsenal’s implosion, but it wasn’t inevitable - and I wouldn’t have had any complaints if we’d amassed over 90 points and been pipped to the title, as they would have deserved it.

What was never in doubt however, for me at least, is that we would go on a run and seriously challenge Arsenal, which would bring its own pressure to bear upon them. I found people using the first half of the season as a counterpoint to this view in the early part of this calendar year to be bizarre, as if no lesson has been garnered from the run-in to the last few seasons, 2020/21 apart, when we took our foot off the gas after securing the title.

Even in 2017/18, after the title was won, we kept going relentlessly (Huddersfield home apart) as history beckoned.

Pep has a magical way of getting the job done in extremis, including the foregoing 2020/21 season when we looked toast in early December and went on a 21 game winning run. Obviously there’s the 14 games at the end of the 2018/19 campaign, and last season too. All incredible feats of team sport.

Tactically, Pep is incredible, as is the way he improves players, but his motivational skills are as much as asset. He knows what to do to deliver the goods in the league better than any manager in English football history, as the foregoing title wins, individually and collectively suitably demonstrate.
It's also like he can casually choose when to go on a winning run that suits best. Out winning win always coincides with very congested fixtures or exactly at the business end of the season. It simply maximises the impact of the winning run itself. It's amazing how he does it.. Cherishing every moment of the best manager in the world.
 
Of course actual goals are what counts, but they don't always reflect how well a team played.

The headers from corners wouldn't really be padding the stat., because if they were low quality chances, they'd have a low xG. So, even if you had ten headers, but all under pressure and at odd angles, that would be difficult to score from, they wouldn't add up to a high xG.

They stat looks at where the player is, how much pressure they're under, and the defenders in front of them, and whether they're 'set' to defend or off balance. It then compares it to the thousands of other goals scored in the top divisions and works out how many times a typical player will score in that situation.
"That team was just trying to stat pad by making a series of high quality chances that they tried to convert to goals"
 
I believe Gracnote have our chances of winning the title from here at 99%.
So about once a century we'd cock it up from here ... but I don't think this is that time.
It was nearer 99.5% so once in every 200 years please ;-)
 
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