The Title Race - 2023/24

[Cobwebcat]

I was half a sleep this morning when I heard opta stats have us at 87%(I think it said that) to win the PL this year. It was on the 7.00 news. That's about 1-8 in betting terms and seems far too high(or low).

84.6% but that can quickly change. I’d guess around 60%

 

[alexmcity]

84.6% but that can quickly change. I’d guess around 60%

Yup. IF we win the next two games, the chances may be 80%, but if we take only, say, 1 point, they'll be around 50%.

What algorithms fail to capture is the wide context. It's beyond doubt we have the best squad, but it is also beyond doubt that winning a 4th PL title in a row is quite difficult. It's hard to maintain top form over 4 seasons: injuries, mental fatigue, etc. may become significant obstacles.

I'm optimistic but it won't be easy. Guess the title may be decided on the last day of the campaign. New signings are likely to play a crucial role, if we win it. Their freshness, hunger, etc. can help us to get over the line.

 

[The Lightbowne Cowboy]

84.6% but that can quickly change. I’d guess around 60%

Like I said, I was half asleep haha. :)

 

[alexmcity]

85-86 pts win the league this season. We are the only team that can go close to 90 pts. Arsenal and Liverpool won't go above 85 pts, even if they win the next 5-6 games.

Guess we'll win the league with 87-88 pts.

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

It’s not really a race. More of a jog at the moment.

 

[NikT]

The fact we have to go away to Liverpool, Tottenham and Newcastle in the second half of the season makes it tougher for us but luckily we'll have king Kev available! It will definitely be an exciting finish, hopefully we can achieve the four peat as well as back to back CLs! CTID!

 

[TinFoilHat]

I put this in the post-match thread but thought I’d add it here too.

We’ve drawn 4-4 at Stamford Bridge before. In 1937. And we went on to win the league. The omens are good.

I will ignore the fact that we were relegated in 1938.

Could still happen if the PL find us guilty...

 

[jimmygrimblesboots]

We need to start keeping clean sheets again , we are managing OK going forward despite not having the best midfield player in the world injured all season ,but our defensive midfield and back four have to buck their ideas up. Clean sheets win titles.

 

[Roachy]

The fact we have to go away to Liverpool, Tottenham and Newcastle in the second half of the season makes it tougher for us but luckily we'll have king Kev available! It will definitely be an exciting finish, hopefully we can achieve the four peat as well as back to back CLs! CTID!

We have a very favourable run in after the Arse game at the end of March. Keep pace until then and I'd fancy us.

 

[Blue_Lightsaber]

I don't wanna give ourselves false praise but losing points in the last 10 minutes at Arsenal, Chelsea and at home vs Liverpool is disturbing. Need to tighten up the defense.

Last year we got 9 points out of those games.. this year we got only 2.