The Title Race - 2023/24

[Corky]

As we are back odds on to win it still, compared to 15/8 the CL and 5/2 the FAC, it is in theory the best chance of a Trophy but the one that takes the most effort and constancy.

Still we will more than likely get to a final and pay £7 a pint. Also the glory hunters can go and watch Manilow if our last game in the PL is a dead rubber and he is not an alternative dead rubber by May.

Last time we had Huddersfield in the FAC we didn't take it seriously and we had the replay when we were supposed to have MU at home before their LC Final. We need to ensure they are beaten with no replay then tear a forlorn Toon a new one in Gulf War III reprised. Then 4th Round and Burnley.

I can't see Brentford away on Monday being a high pointer this year.

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

It never felt quite like the curse was broken though for me when we beat them with no fans in the stands. Non the less it was a win though. I'd take a draw now personally.

I think it's more that the world and his little dog was going there and doing them that year. That diminished it, somehow.

 

[jimmygrimblesboots]

And we have Newcastle, spurs, Liverpool all away, we will also drop points. The Liverpool game worries me more than anything tbh.

We have lost one of our last 5 visits to their midden and that was a Cancelo cock up that gave them a lucky 1-0 win , you worry too much :)

 

[supercity88]

We have lost one of our last 5 visits to their midden and that was a Cancelo cock up that gave them a lucky 1-0 win , you worry too much :)

They'll be desperate to beat us and they'll throw everything at us. Weather that initial storm, quieten the crowd and then dominate them. We never seem to get any luck at Anfield. Whether it's decisions or the number of chances/penalties we squander. Then someone obscure seems to fire in a shot from 30 yards for their first goal of the season and we lose! But our recent performances have been much better. We still haven't won there since 2003 with fans in attendance though. Can we win there and score (and win) at Spurs?!

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

We have lost one of our last 5 visits to their midden and that was a Cancelo cock up that gave them a lucky 1-0 win , you worry too much :)

And there was one that we should definitely have won — just put it straight down the middle and on target, Riyad.

Aaaaaargggh!

Edit: just checked, it was further back than I thought. Shows how traumatised I was by the frustration of it.

 

[shemnel]

Liverpool and City are establishing themselves as the main two again this season.

I believe both teams are on an upward trajectory in terms of form, but that Liverpool's is slightly more established - they're just not losing and playing slightly better as the weeks go by. City's form is improving but we're only just out of a horrid patch.

City's tough aways include Newcastle, Liverpool & Spurs - Liverpool away is after the Copenhagen home leg, so that needs wrapping up in the away leg.

Liverpool's tough aways are Arsenal really. They have Utd & Villa away as well, but let's be honest, they're not great teams.

Liverpool's defence is an injury away from causing issues (pre ~March) while i think our squad is about to settle into some steady fitness. City really have to be winning at Newcastle, i think that is crucial. We have the champs league, which is always an extra drain though.

So, very very even in my opinion. Very. Bookies have City at ~58%, Liverpool ~31% and ~13% bar (overround included). I'd put City and Liverpool much more evenly matched to be honest, even if we win at the Barcodes, but i think if we slip-up at Newcastle we'll see a money/media/fan tide of opinion towards Liverpool. Lots more games to play.

 

[waspish]

Liverpool with there front 6 options are favourites for me because they play at that speed level next 18 games they'll be hard to catch

 

[blueparrot]

Liverpool with there front 6 options are favourites for me because they play at that speed level next 18 games they'll be hard to catch

Which level, they are hardly winning convincingly,despite our run of draws and losses we are potentially 2 points behind, their defence isn't great.They''ll drop points,if we do what we are capable of we'll win it.We might not win it but we are and should be favourites.

 

[Cobwebcat]

Liverpool and City are establishing themselves as the main two again this season.

I believe both teams are on an upward trajectory in terms of form, but that Liverpool's is slightly more established - they're just not losing and playing slightly better as the weeks go by. City's form is improving but we're only just out of a horrid patch.

City's tough aways include Newcastle, Liverpool & Spurs - Liverpool away is after the Copenhagen home leg, so that needs wrapping up in the away leg.

Liverpool's tough aways are Arsenal really. They have Utd & Villa away as well, but let's be honest, they're not great teams.

Liverpool's defence is an injury away from causing issues (pre ~March) while i think our squad is about to settle into some steady fitness. City really have to be winning at Newcastle, i think that is crucial. We have the champs league, which is always an extra drain though.

So, very very even in my opinion. Very. Bookies have City at ~58%, Liverpool ~31% and ~13% bar (overround included). I'd put City and Liverpool much more evenly matched to be honest, even if we win at the Barcodes, but i think if we slip-up at Newcastle we'll see a money/media/fan tide of opinion towards Liverpool. Lots more games to play.

Opta have it City 60% Liverpool 32% and 8% the rest so similar to the bookies.

We know we will hit the pedal now as that is what we are designed to do. Liverpool we will see.

What I would say is that Liverpool in general have been luckier than us and if you strip that out we should be 2 points clear of them plus a game in hand rather than 5 points behind plus a game in hand.

EPL xG Table and Scorers for the 2024/2025 season | Understat.com

xG table of EPL standings and top scorers for the 2024/2025 season, also tables from past seasons and other European football leagues.

understat.com

 

[Lovebitesandeveryfing]

Which level, they are hardly winning convincingly,despite our run of draws and losses we are potentially 2 points behind, their defence isn't great.They''ll drop points,if we do what we are capable of we'll win it.We might not win it but we are and should be favourites.

I agree with @shemnel above. We are marginal favourites. If we now keep everyone fit — I'm not thinking about Johnny any more, he just seems to pick up injuries regularly — and they lose even one key player to several weeks of injury, what with Salah out for a while anyway, I think that could swing it more markedly towards us. But as it stands, it's close. We absolutely need to be winning our three league games this month, at this point, just to keep up the pressure. And actually, I think we will.

Edit: by the way, I take your point. They're edging matches, by and large. But that's what they do. They're good at it. They could carry on doing that for much of the rest of the season.