The Title Race - 2023/24

[Bluemoonadam]

Our record against the better teams hasn’t been great this season. We will have to play a hell of a lot better than we have recently to win at Anfield. I personally don’t see it this season but still have fingers crossed and we are still in there which is the main thing.

I'd take a draw at anfield now if offered

 

[Platt Lane 59]

Yep.

Physicality/fitness and prep time is so important. We saw it at Bournemouth at the weekend because they were physically stronger towards the end of the game. Pep even mentioned it in his interviews.

At least before United and Liverpool for the next 2 weekends we are on the right side of it.

We play Tuesday in the Cup and United Wednesday so an extra day there.

Next week we play in a soft-ish home leg on the Wednesday and Liverpool are in Prague on the Thursday. Only Europa Leagiue for them but they still have to put out a team and have the travel as well.

Agree the week after the international break is very tough with Arsenal, Villa and Palace in 6 days. Villa have a day extra before they play us but at least we are at home. Also the Palace game comes directly before the CL QF which could be on the Tuesday, All going to be fun!

Completely agree that fitness and conditioning is crucial to City retaining the title.
But, if City were so tired after the Brentford home game, why did Pep only use 2 subs before the 84th minute and Kev coming on too late to do much ?
Alvarez also only came on in the 75th minute, when City were under the cosh.
I think City have by far the best squad, but we use fewer subs than our rivals...

 

[Cobwebcat]

Ok then.

What it suggeats instead is that xG is pretty meaningless in footballing terms.

Absolutely not, quite the opposite these days. Expected points is certainly used as a consideration when hiring and firing Managers in most top clubs for example (most notably Klopp) I can’t think of a PL club not using underlying statistics in their analytical data departments.

 

[supercity88]

Despite having been in good form with 9 wins in an 11 game unbeaten run, the performances leave me feeling more downbeat about our chances. But it's results that matter ultimately. We might have lacked our usual killer instinct in front of goal and looked more nervous seeing games through, but we've got the job done. Liverpool have a lot of injuries but you can see the squad is galvanised around Klopp's farewell and desperate to perform for him. Arsenal have turned on the swagger and look as though they'll blow teams away at the moment domestically. And our remaining fixtures are the hardest I would say.

But it's time to turn things up a gear. We're in a great position and I'm sure Pep has had an eye on this month. The CL game against Copenhagen at home is a nice one before Anfield, one we can hopefully finish off in the first half and rotate. We've got the majority of the squad fit and it would be good to be able to get Grealish back in and on the left, as I think he's critical to the balance of the side. He keeps the ball, helps defensively and enables players to take up good positions centrally.

Pep's got to make a call on what the best shape is. Do we play the team from last season with Kovacic for Gundo? Do we use Foden centrally or keep him right? Does Bernie start central, right or be a rotation option? Lots of questions and it depends on the opposition. But usually at this time of the season things look and feel more settled. Beat the rags on Sunday and that will be a huge lift going to Anfield.

 

[Coatigan]

Absolutely not, quite the opposite these days. Expected points is certainly used as a consideration when hiring and firing Managers in most top clubs for example (most notably Klopp) I can’t think of a PL club not using underlying statistics in their analytical data departments.

I meant in terms od predicting or assessing a season performance against the real positions. But I take your point beyond that.

 

[Cobwebcat]

I meant in terms od predicting or assessing a season performance against the real positions. But I take your point beyond that.

You mean like this?

Brentford also measure success differently, not by the league table, but by Ankersen's "table of justice," a variant of the expected goals model. This is informed by the belief that, because football is such a low-scoring sport—the average game has 2.7 goals, compared to over 200 points in basketball—luck is very important. As The Numbers Game notes, favourites win only 65 percent of football matches but 80 percent of basketball games.
But Brentford do not merely use the "table of justice" as an excuse. In 2015, Mark Warburton was not offered a new contract as manager after Brentford came fifth. The club believed the team had been lucky, that their performances had not merited such impressive results.

 

[citymad]

I'd take a draw at anfield now if offered

I "probably" wouldn't.We need to bury this curse they have on us there and show them who the real Champions are. Besides that would leave us with no room for error against Arsenal and Villa, two excellent teams.

 

[skillman]

Have a strange feeling Arsenal are stronger this season - mentally. Seem to be putting away teams with a bit of relative ease but that could be because I was expecting them to have already faltered/have been concentrating on the dippers.

Having them coming to our place is massive, though. Big game, that.

 

[chris85mcfc]

Our record against the better teams hasn’t been great this season. We will have to play a hell of a lot better than we have recently to win at Anfield. I personally don’t see it this season but still have fingers crossed and we are still in there which is the main thing.

You're right about our form against the better teams, but it's worth noting that Liverpool have only beaten Villa back in September, and they're top of the shop.

 

[skillman]

№	Team	M	W	D	L	G	GA	PTS	xG	xGA	xPTS
2	Manchester City	26	18	5	3	59	26	59	58.00-1.00	25.55-0.45	56.20-2.80
3	Arsenal	26	18	4	4	62	23	58	57.12-4.88	21.92-1.08	55.44-2.56
1	Liverpool	26	18	6	2	63	25	60	61.99-1.01	32.81+7.81	51.40-8.60

Suggests that over the season City and Arsenal are performing better than Liverpool so far.

56 55 51

Either Alisson is a freak of nature or teams fluff their lines against the dippers. Or a mixture of both (most likely) but that's frustrating when you consider teams become very fucking clinical when they play us.

And that's with Ederson being fantastic this season.