The Title Race - 2023/24

[Brightwell Bros.]

Feeling more positive than I was this time last week.

If all we need for the season is for Haaland to hit some form and the rest of the team to chip in with a goal or two then we are in a good place.

You'd be mad to bet against him.

 

[alexmcity]

I don’t know what to make of this season. We seem to be hanging on rather than burying teams.

I actually think we are fine from an attacking point of view just very wasteful which won’t continue forever.

It’s out of possession and stopping turnovers that is making me nervous. We were much better at that last season.

The analytics guys suggest that is down to missing Gundo as neither Kovacic nor Nunes are doing as well, plus Grealish’s control has been missing through a drop off in form and/or injury. It’s a shame he got injured immediately after returning to the team.

To my untrained eyes our defence has looked wobbly. I’d like to see a centre half partnership of Stones and Gvardiol with Walker and Ake as full backs. Nothing against Akanji or Dias…I’d just like to see it tried.

In midfield I’d like to see Bernardo KDB Foden Grealish in front of Rodri and Haaland up top.

If we can get near our best of course we can win the lot again but I don’t have the same confidence watching the team as I did last season despite the fact we are in a similar position as last time except our goal difference is 8 less.

We effed up with Gundo, as did he IMHO.

The only question for me is the physical condition of key players. This is something that only Pep and the medical staff know.

Have we tried to save energy in the previous months in order to be in top form in the final 2-3 months? Do we have enough in the tank? These are the key questions.

There are two opportunities to recover the team physically. The first is the week after Anfield (6-7 days between both games). The second is the international break where certain players shouldn't play (more than one game).

The schedule after the break is brutal: Arsenal, Villa and Palace over 6 days! If we are not in top physical condition we'll struggle.

Basically, if the players are fresh, then we have good chances. If they aren't, it will be difficult. Personally, I think the plan has been to hit top form in the last 2-3 months.

 

[Cobwebcat]

It doesn't though. It just suggests that the xG and the expectations are wrong.

Not really…actual points obtained and expected points (based on performance) are different measurements. xG is a better predictor of future points than actual points.

Actual points are results based.

xG is performance based.

Neither is wrong.

 

[Cobwebcat]

The only question for me is the physical condition of key players. This is something that only Pep and the medical staff know.

Have we tried to save energy in the previous months in order to be in top form in the final 2-3 months? Do we have enough in the tank? These are the key questions.

There are two opportunities to recover the team physically. The first is the week after Anfield (6-7 days between both games). The second is the international break where certain players shouldn't play (more than one game).

The schedule after the break is brutal: Arsenal, Villa and Palace over 6 days! If we are not in top physical condition we'll struggle.

Basically, if the players are fresh, then we have good chances. If they aren't, it will be difficult. Personally, I think the plan has been to hit top form in the last 2-3 months.

Yes I am hoping that too. City benefit from rotation without much of a drop in standard so have an advantage in fitness terms on the home straight no doubt.

 

[vmsuhail]

Will get moved if we reach FA Cup SF and could end up in final midweek of the season with both teams desperate for three points.

I think that's good for us. If the title is in our sights by then, we usually win these type of games at the end.

 

[vmsuhail]

They still only overtook our goals total for this season at the weekend.

Just half a dozen games ago, they were 11 behind our goals tally, so a lot of it depends on who you're playing, and purple patches in front of goal, but they've certainly begun answering their critics.

The Liverpool result was so massive for them. They've looked a proper title contender since then. It shows the importance of these 6 pointer games. We have to atleast avoid defeats in the Arsenal and Liverpool games.

 

[Pablo ZZZ Peroni]

The only question for me is the physical condition of key players. This is something that only Pep and the medical staff know.

Have we tried to save energy in the previous months in order to be in top form in the final 2-3 months? Do we have enough in the tank? These are the key questions.

There are two opportunities to recover the team physically. The first is the week after Anfield (6-7 days between both games). The second is the international break where certain players shouldn't play (more than one game).

The schedule after the break is brutal: Arsenal, Villa and Palace over 6 days! If we are not in top physical condition we'll struggle.

Basically, if the players are fresh, then we have good chances. If they aren't, it will be difficult. Personally, I think the plan has been to hit top form in the last 2-3 months.

Yep.

Physicality/fitness and prep time is so important. We saw it at Bournemouth at the weekend because they were physically stronger towards the end of the game. Pep even mentioned it in his interviews.

At least before United and Liverpool for the next 2 weekends we are on the right side of it.

We play Tuesday in the Cup and United Wednesday so an extra day there.

Next week we play in a soft-ish home leg on the Wednesday and Liverpool are in Prague on the Thursday. Only Europa Leagiue for them but they still have to put out a team and have the travel as well.

Agree the week after the international break is very tough with Arsenal, Villa and Palace in 6 days. Villa have a day extra before they play us but at least we are at home. Also the Palace game comes directly before the CL QF which could be on the Tuesday, All going to be fun!

 

[Millwallawayveteran1988]

The Liverpool result was so massive for them. They've looked a proper title contender since then. It shows the importance of these 6 pointer games. We have to atleast avoid defeats in the Arsenal and Liverpool games.

Our record against the better teams hasn’t been great this season. We will have to play a hell of a lot better than we have recently to win at Anfield. I personally don’t see it this season but still have fingers crossed and we are still in there which is the main thing.

 

[Coatigan]

Not really…actual points obtained and expected points (based on performance) are different measurements. xG is a better predictor of future points than actual points.

Actual points are results based.

xG is performance based.

Neither is wrong.

Ok then.

What it suggeats instead is that xG is pretty meaningless in footballing terms.

 

[StillBluessinceHydeRoad]

City are handily placed a point behind Liverpool, have not lost in our last 11 PL matches and have won 9 of them. Closer analysis of our league results does, however suggest that there may be a less rosy side to them. In our unbeaten run the highest placed team we have beaten is Newcastle in 9th. We played all three teams in the relegation places (2 of them at home) and we dropped home points against 11th placed Chelsea and 13th placed Palace. In 5 of those games we had to come from behind. Even now we do not seem to be at our best or anything like it and we need to be because our next 5 games are against teams in the top 7. Three of these games are at home, though one is at Anfield where we don't have a particularly good record and the other away game is at Brighton. Our record against the top 7 so far is indifferent: we have played 6 matches but only won 2 (the rags away and Brighton at home) and the last match we lost was away at Villa, when we were beaten comprehensively. Liverpool and Spurs got draws at our place and we lost at the Emirates and Villa park. In the two defeats it is significant that neither KdB nor Rodri were in the City team and this shows how important it is to get (and keep) our big players fit and everyone in form. This is crucial especially for the next 5 games and particularly Liverpool and Arsenal. We have 12 games left (6 at home and 6 away). This is the run in and we need to apply the pressure.