SkyBlueFlux
Well-Known Member
Why are we quite clear favourites? I’d say it’s 50/50 with us and Arsenal.
I would say we and Arsenal are quite clear favourites to finish above Liverpool. You can’t lose against Palace and Everton at this stage of the season. Liverpool looked done in that second half. Klopp looked done. He is not stupid. He knows what we are capable of and he also knows that Arsenal don’t look vulnerable. I’d be surprised if they won it from here.
In terms of consistency, Arsenal have won 11 out of their last 13 games which is pretty consistent! Fortunately we have kept in there.
I don't think it's quite 50/50 simply because this Arsenal team hasn't actually done it before and they have two very tough high pressure fixtures coming up. The chances of them dropping points in one or both of those is quite high. If they give us room for one error then that's the kind of margin we thrive on at this stage of the season. In seasons where the title has gone to the last game Pep's record from this stage is W16, D2, L0.
Opta currently have us at 56% probability, Arsenal at 31% and Liverpool at 13% and I think that's probably about right.