I don't think it's quite 50/50 simply because this Arsenal team hasn't actually done it before and they have two very tough high pressure fixtures coming up. The chances of them dropping points in one or both of those is quite high. If they give us room for one error then that's the kind of margin we thrive on at this stage of the season. In seasons where the title has gone to the last game Pep's record from this stage is W16, D2, L0.
Opta currently have us at 56% probability, Arsenal at 31% and Liverpool at 13% and I think that's probably about right.