The Title Race - 2023/24

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Nothing makes me more confident than getting to April, 600+ pages on the title race thread and posters doing "just can't see rivals dropping X points" with about 20 points left to play for.

When one of them has just dropped points to a mid-table team.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

I can't stand Mourinho but City fans do owe him a little bit. Maybe more than that, actually. Not just for fucking up at United for three years but for sticking his fingers up Liverpool's nose when he really didn't have to. Chelsea couldn't really win the league anymore after that stupid loss at home to Sunderland the week beforehand, but Mourinho went to Anfield to purely to piss them off and make a point. From the moment he stopped Gerrard picking that ball up for a throw-in after 2 mins he got in their heads.

Read this.

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They brought that approach from Mourinho on themselves. Although it wasn’t theur fault, obviously.

 

[BolinCell]

Stones missed about 4 months and many City fans regard him as the best CB in the world or close to being that.

Everyone has injuries. In fact KDB has 1 to 2 months every season. Stones is not world class in the same way KDB is world class so replacing Stones should not mess the team shape up that much. Anyway after last years treble this team has done remarkably well to stay in touch in PL with seven games to go, be up against Madrid in the CL and still in the FA cup.

 

[bluenova]

Possibly. But if the same qualifying criteria was in place last season, the league would have finished with it still being undecided.

In fact our win over Inter would have been the deciding factor and got Liverpool a spot.

They’d have loved that.

Sure - but there's certainly a good chance that it will be decided.

Germany have just the three teams in Europe, while England have five, including the favourites for the three competitions.

Bayern could go out, and Dortmund and Leverkusen still reach the finals, in which case that's a lot closer, but I think there's a strong chance we'll know before we play Spurs.

 

[chris85mcfc]

Nothing makes me more confident than getting to April, 600+ pages on the title race thread and posters doing "just can't see rivals dropping X points" with about 20 points left to play for.

See the same threads for the previous 3 years for further info..

 

[GoatersLeftShin]

Stones is not world class in the same way KDB is world class so replacing Stones should not mess the team shape up that much.

Not quite sure I agree with that.

Stones is arguably one of our most important players as he is very comfortable on the ball, can move forward and defends well. Tactically, he seems to have a similar level of intelligence to 'what Pep wants' as Rodri. When he is on form, we have magnificent defender at the back and a player who's comfortable taking the ball from the keeper and strolling into midfield and there's not many other players who can do that.

I do think Stones is one of the best central defenders this country has ever produced.

 

[youngbob]

Read this.

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They brought that approach from Mourinho on themselves. Although it wasn’t theur fault, obviously.

Yeah you could tell straight away. From the "weakened" line-up with Kalas and Schwarzer (and an unfancied 21-year-old Mo Salah to draw Liverpool on), to him holding the ball to stop Gerrard grabbing it, all the way through to him marching down the touchline at the final whistle. He stage-managed the entire thing.

 

[BLS]

If there is one game that will decide our title win or not, that will be it. Unfortunately Liverpool have got Spurs at home. I can’t see Liverpool droping any points at home, meaning they will beat Spurs.

i have spurs down to nick a draw there

 

[JewelZee]

Got a mate who's been a season ticket holder for over 30 years, had a chat with him about the game, he said Brighton have gradually got worse as the season has gone on, Metoma has been a huge miss, he suggested in seasons gone by this team would struggle to stay up. He did say that Arsenal looked very solid and assured on the ball and that Brighton didn't give them a game.

Agree, some of it Arsenal is better and some of it Brighton is worse...

 

[goalmole]

This is what football is about. Cheering on your biggest rivals to enhance your chances of winning the league. Watched it in a pub with a few Reds and think I cheered the loudest when mainoo scored. Give me a last game decider over a 100 point season any day of the week.

Lol, me too. I let out a loud spontaneous cheer when Mainoo scored and then instantly felt ashamed of myself.
I couldn't believe I'd done that although I knew why I'd done it.

 

[Toney’s bookie]

I can't stand Mourinho but City fans do owe him a little bit. Maybe more than that, actually. Not just for fucking up at United for three years but for sticking his fingers up Liverpool's nose when he really didn't have to. Chelsea couldn't really win the league anymore after that stupid loss at home to Sunderland the week beforehand, but Mourinho went to Anfield to purely to piss them off and make a point. From the moment he stopped Gerrard picking that ball up for a throw-in after 2 mins he got in their heads.

 

[LesBleuMiserable]

Lol, me too. I let out a loud spontaneous cheer when Mainoo scored and then instantly felt ashamed of myself.
I couldn't believe I'd done that although I knew why I'd done it.

Rag

:)

If only jar jar binks had not given that stupid pen away I’d still be smarting

 

[lasereyes]

It's not impossible but it's (highly) unlikely that they win their remaining 7 games. If we give them 85 % chance to win any of the games Spurs and United aside (that's a bit optimistic, given their involvement in the CL), 60% at Spurs and 70% at United, then the overall chance would be...18%. If you use the bookies odds, then the overall chance of 7 Arsenal wins would be under 10%...

Liverpool are not in a much better situation. Give them 75% chance to win at Fulham and Everton, 70% at W Ham, 60% Villa, 85% vs Spurs and 95% vs Palace and Wolves. The overall chance then is 17%. If we take the bookies odds, then the overall chance is under 10%.

That said, City are unlikely to win all 7 games too. But we are (slightly) more likely to do it.

That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.

That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.

 

[lasereyes]

If Arsenal and Liverpool lose a game then we should simply avoid drawing by not chasing the game recklessly trying to make-up goal difference. ;)

But we may draw first ...

 

[DenisHasDoneIt]

Who saw the Kult dropping 2 points at the Toilet at HT on Sunday? Once it’s happened, it looks inevitable, but it ain’t. It wasn’t inevitable that we’d win the league when we were 2-1 down at home to QPR, or 2-0 down at home to Villa. That we could win our last nine games and come third - in a season when we've never been off the pace -, and having not lost since December, is possible.

Sorry to be all Happy-Clappy, but if you can’t enjoy this, you need to find other kinds of amusement. What a time to be a Blue. And have fun in Madrid, you lucky so-and-sos.

 

[lasereyes]

Didn’t they just have to draw against Chelsea and tried to batter them which resulted in the slip? Ten years ago and the last time three teams were still in the hunt for the title at this stage of the season.

Not really. It was 0-0 coming to half time and scousers were knocking the ball around at the back. Demba Ba and Dwight Gayle remain 2 of my fave non-city players. They deserve mini statues :)

 

[Axel Freed]

Not really. It was 0-0 coming to half time and scousers were knocking the ball around at the back. Demba Ba and Dwight Gayle remain 2 of my fave non-city players. They deserve mini statues :)

As does the otherwise dislikable Jordan Pickford for ruining Van Dyk’s knee

 

[Roachy]

That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.

That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.

Other than bits of transfer news concerning City I didn't bother with anything football for 2 months after that run in. The week- in week-out angst of "must win" wiped me out.

 

[alexmcity]

That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.

That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.

I agree with your point. If you win, say, 4 games, then it's a bit more likely to win the 5th game than if you consider it in isolation (though not much more likely, as the role of chance can't be eliminated).

But I have inflated the percentages so that such a tendency doesn’t change the probabilities significantly. For instance, I've given Arsenal a 60% chance to win at Spurs, whereas the bookies give them under 45%.

Our run of 14 wins in 18/19 was unlikely, that's why such runs in the big leagues are rare, especially in England, Italy and Spain. Our second half of 18/19 was the best in the history of the big leagues.

So, in terms of cold numbers, the chance that Arsenal or Liverpool will win all of their remaining games is under 20% (from today's perspective). Things may change if the opposition teams suffer many injuries or get red cards, etc.

In the corresponding thread for the 21/22 season, I wrote that both Liverpool and City were likely to drop points in the remaining games after the draw at the Etihad (2:2). And they did, Liverpool vs Spurs and us vs West Ham. It's utterly difficult to win the final 9-10 games when you are in Europe as well.

Personally, I think that it is likely that either Arsenal or Liverpool will drop points in at least two of the remaining 7 games. How likely is it that both of them drop pts in at least two games? I think the chance for it is bigger than the chance one of them to win all of their remaining games.

Such calculations are no substitute for reality, though. In reality, something can happen even if the chance is extremely small...As they say, it's difficult to predict, especially the future :)

 

[bluenova]

Who saw the Kult dropping 2 points at the Toilet at HT on Sunday? Once it’s happened, it looks inevitable, but it ain’t. It wasn’t inevitable that we’d win the league when we were 2-1 down at home to QPR, or 2-0 down at home to Villa. That we could win our last nine games and come third - in a season when we've never been off the pace -, and having not lost since December, is possible.

Sorry to be all Happy-Clappy, but if you can’t enjoy this, you need to find other kinds of amusement. What a time to be a Blue. And have fun in Madrid, you lucky so-and-sos.

I'm loving this year, as it feels like a proper title race, and I really hope all three drop some points (with City dropping just a couple less than everyone else).

For those not enjoying it, I think there's a bit of a hangover from previous run ins, where there were no ups and down, just must win games. 2018/19 I found painful at times, we won 14 in a row, with five 1-0 wins, and ended up with the title by a point. It's like watching someone do one of those metal buzz wire puzzles where you move you're moving the ring around, and as soon as it hits the metal it's game over. For 14 games in a row!