Toney’s bookie
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 7 Oct 2008
- Messages
- 1,717
You are using an out of date browser. It may not display this or other websites correctly.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
You should upgrade or use an alternative browser.
The Title Race - 2023/24
- Thread starter MCFC1993
- Start date
LesBleuMiserable
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 11 May 2011
- Messages
- 3,255
RagLol, me too. I let out a loud spontaneous cheer when Mainoo scored and then instantly felt ashamed of myself.
I couldn't believe I'd done that although I knew why I'd done it.
:)
If only jar jar binks had not given that stupid pen away I’d still be smarting
That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.It's not impossible but it's (highly) unlikely that they win their remaining 7 games. If we give them 85 % chance to win any of the games Spurs and United aside (that's a bit optimistic, given their involvement in the CL), 60% at Spurs and 70% at United, then the overall chance would be...18%. If you use the bookies odds, then the overall chance of 7 Arsenal wins would be under 10%...
Liverpool are not in a much better situation. Give them 75% chance to win at Fulham and Everton, 70% at W Ham, 60% Villa, 85% vs Spurs and 95% vs Palace and Wolves. The overall chance then is 17%. If we take the bookies odds, then the overall chance is under 10%.
That said, City are unlikely to win all 7 games too. But we are (slightly) more likely to do it.
That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.
But we may draw first ...If Arsenal and Liverpool lose a game then we should simply avoid drawing by not chasing the game recklessly trying to make-up goal difference. ;)
DenisHasDoneIt
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 31 Jul 2021
- Messages
- 1,393
Who saw the Kult dropping 2 points at the Toilet at HT on Sunday? Once it’s happened, it looks inevitable, but it ain’t. It wasn’t inevitable that we’d win the league when we were 2-1 down at home to QPR, or 2-0 down at home to Villa. That we could win our last nine games and come third - in a season when we've never been off the pace -, and having not lost since December, is possible.
Sorry to be all Happy-Clappy, but if you can’t enjoy this, you need to find other kinds of amusement. What a time to be a Blue. And have fun in Madrid, you lucky so-and-sos.
Sorry to be all Happy-Clappy, but if you can’t enjoy this, you need to find other kinds of amusement. What a time to be a Blue. And have fun in Madrid, you lucky so-and-sos.
Not really. It was 0-0 coming to half time and scousers were knocking the ball around at the back. Demba Ba and Dwight Gayle remain 2 of my fave non-city players. They deserve mini statues :)Didn’t they just have to draw against Chelsea and tried to batter them which resulted in the slip? Ten years ago and the last time three teams were still in the hunt for the title at this stage of the season.
Axel Freed
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 25 Jan 2023
- Messages
- 1,902
- Team supported
- City
As does the otherwise dislikable Jordan Pickford for ruining Van Dyk’s kneeNot really. It was 0-0 coming to half time and scousers were knocking the ball around at the back. Demba Ba and Dwight Gayle remain 2 of my fave non-city players. They deserve mini statues :)
Other than bits of transfer news concerning City I didn't bother with anything football for 2 months after that run in. The week- in week-out angst of "must win" wiped me out.That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.
That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.
That's an interesting analysis but it assumes all the games are independent of each other. In practice, I dont think they are. If a team gets on a roll, then they can become more likely to win their subsequent games. What were the odds on us winning our last 14 in 2019? Prob <1% (especially as we had come off a dodgy Xmas). But as we got closer and closer to the end, I think the players felt it would happen - which mattered greatly when we were struggling to break down Burnley and Leicester - and went a goal down to Brighton on the last day.
That doesnt apply to fans - I was a total wreck during that run-in, especially in the last 2 months.
I agree with your point. If you win, say, 4 games, then it's a bit more likely to win the 5th game than if you consider it in isolation (though not much more likely, as the role of chance can't be eliminated).
But I have inflated the percentages so that such a tendency doesn’t change the probabilities significantly. For instance, I've given Arsenal a 60% chance to win at Spurs, whereas the bookies give them under 45%.
Our run of 14 wins in 18/19 was unlikely, that's why such runs in the big leagues are rare, especially in England, Italy and Spain. Our second half of 18/19 was the best in the history of the big leagues.
So, in terms of cold numbers, the chance that Arsenal or Liverpool will win all of their remaining games is under 20% (from today's perspective). Things may change if the opposition teams suffer many injuries or get red cards, etc.
In the corresponding thread for the 21/22 season, I wrote that both Liverpool and City were likely to drop points in the remaining games after the draw at the Etihad (2:2). And they did, Liverpool vs Spurs and us vs West Ham. It's utterly difficult to win the final 9-10 games when you are in Europe as well.
Personally, I think that it is likely that either Arsenal or Liverpool will drop points in at least two of the remaining 7 games. How likely is it that both of them drop pts in at least two games? I think the chance for it is bigger than the chance one of them to win all of their remaining games.
Such calculations are no substitute for reality, though. In reality, something can happen even if the chance is extremely small...As they say, it's difficult to predict, especially the future :)
Who saw the Kult dropping 2 points at the Toilet at HT on Sunday? Once it’s happened, it looks inevitable, but it ain’t. It wasn’t inevitable that we’d win the league when we were 2-1 down at home to QPR, or 2-0 down at home to Villa. That we could win our last nine games and come third - in a season when we've never been off the pace -, and having not lost since December, is possible.
Sorry to be all Happy-Clappy, but if you can’t enjoy this, you need to find other kinds of amusement. What a time to be a Blue. And have fun in Madrid, you lucky so-and-sos.
I'm loving this year, as it feels like a proper title race, and I really hope all three drop some points (with City dropping just a couple less than everyone else).
For those not enjoying it, I think there's a bit of a hangover from previous run ins, where there were no ups and down, just must win games. 2018/19 I found painful at times, we won 14 in a row, with five 1-0 wins, and ended up with the title by a point. It's like watching someone do one of those metal buzz wire puzzles where you move you're moving the ring around, and as soon as it hits the metal it's game over. For 14 games in a row!