The Title Race - 2024/25

How many points to win the league?

  • Total voters
    301
  • Poll closed .
supercity88 said:
Can't believe anyone would write us off now. Rodri's a big loss undoubtedly. But a point at St James' in the early kick off is a decent result. Especially when also missing De Bruyne and with Foden not yet firing and Gundo not yet finding his feet. It's early days, these results and performances happen for us at this point in the season.

If Arsenal had have blown Leicester apart and won 4-0 and beaten Brighton I'd be more concerned. They drew with Brighton which undermines the win at Spurs and Villa to some extent. And to let Leicester get back to 2-2 shows that whilst they've nailed their away performances they've still got the ability to drop points at home. No one is scared to go to the Emirates the way they are the Etihad or Anfield.
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Think we be there or there about and it is to early to even make a judgement but 4 in a row was record so getting 5 in a row and now with a lot more top teams seems way harder to achieve!
 
Boring fact for you all…

If you compare the PL table after every round of matches to the finished table:

Rounds 1-9 get more like the finishing table after each game as you would expect. But…..

Rounds 10-34 plateau meaning that the table after round 10 is just as accurate as round 34.

Rounds 35-38 then start to look like the finishing table again with each round with 38 obviously being 100% accurate.

The moral of the story is look at the table after 10 games.It’s a really good guide at that point but not so much before.
 
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MCFC1993 said:
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So the gap has shrunk from the start of the season. The model still favours us.
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Bookies are much more relevant. They have skin in the game for they can lose money.

Guess this model is based almost entirely on past results, and doesn't take into account injuries, aging, fatigue, etc. A 5th title in a row would be a monumental achievement.
 
bobbyowenquiff said:
I think it is very competitive this season with us, Arsenal, Chelsea, Liverpool, Villa, and even Spurs all in the mix. Teams will take points of each other. That may help us. The PL is fantastic these days.
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Hold on wait a minute. I thought that we have ruined football?
 
alexmcity said:
Bookies are much more relevant. They have skin in the game for they can lose money.

Guess this model is based almost entirely on past results, and doesn't take into account injuries, aging, fatigue, etc. A 5th title in a row would be a monumental achievement.
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I don't think bookie prices are more relevant, because a bookie price can be severely influenced by weight of money (i.e. opinion) even if that money/opinion is severely misguided. A bookie needs to balance outgoings with the price, so it becomes slightly divorced from reality should someone decide they want to lump daft money on something silly.

I think Arsenal, City and Liverpool are all about joint myself, perhaps City and Arsenal slight favs, but that's just a gut feeling. I'm a bit surprised that model has us 2/5 favs this early in proceedings.
 
MadchesterCity said:
I'm not chucking in the towel, I'm just being realistic, Arsenal injuring Rodri (best midfielder in world football) has greatly enhanced their chances amd decreased ours, even the bookies see it that way. Ongoing concerns over fitness of KDB and Foden and zero backup for Haaland. We have a tiny squad and have invested poorly over last few transfer windows imho. Pep deserved better support from the board in the market. Our midfield and forward line Halaand aside has very little goals, producetive output against teams who in majority are all lining up with a low block. To top it off Arsenal look like they've gone up a notch or two certainly mentally and in terms of squad depth.
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You say you are being realistic- does that mean when you said you couldn’t see us winning it last season you weren’t being realistic?
 
shemnel said:
I don't think bookie prices are more relevant, because a bookie price can be severely influenced by weight of money (i.e. opinion) even if that money/opinion is severely misguided. A bookie needs to balance outgoings with the price, so it becomes slightly divorced from reality should someone decide they want to lump daft money on something silly.

I think Arsenal, City and Liverpool are all about joint myself, perhaps City and Arsenal slight favs, but that's just a gut feeling. I'm a bit surprised that model has us 2/5 favs this early in proceedings.
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So, you agree much more with the bookies than with the model.
 
Roachy said:
I think that's a fair description. Did we do enough to win at Newcastle, possibly but a point apiece felt like a fair result. There'll be a few more results like that over the season for ourselves and the others. Same routine from us I feel. Hang in there over the winter. Our fixtures don't look to bad towards the end of the season.
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If you look at how dominant we were against Arsenal until Rodri went off, it was always a hard task to go to St James the first chance we had to experiment without him. And as I said, missing KDB or a fully fit Foden plus a below par Gundo made that a bigger challenge.

Take the point and we go again. Got a good chance to work on things in the CL before the weekend.

It's a tough ask to win the league without Rodri, but I would never write us off.
 
alexmcity said:
So, you agree much more with the bookies than with the model.
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you possibly have a point.

I think that model has been very good in recent years, but it obviously has various underlying mechanisms we are not privvy to. But i suppose you're right that in this case my estimate would be closer to the bookie price than what the model suggests, yes.

I think my original point was more that bookies prices aren't always more relevant, as they are cash driven and that cash doesnt necesarily have to be rooted in sense.
 
supercity88 said:
If you look at how dominant we were against Arsenal until Rodri went off, it was always a hard task to go to St James the first chance we had to experiment without him. And as I said, missing KDB or a fully fit Foden plus a below par Gundo made that a bigger challenge.

Take the point and we go again. Got a good chance to work on things in the CL before the weekend.

It's a tough ask to win the league without Rodri, but I would never write us off.
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We had every game prior to Arsenal experimenting without him and with success. Pep has struggled for years to find a way without him but only in a small group of games. Hopefully now he has to for a season he finds that way.
 
St Helens Blue (Exiled) said:
Lot of negativity about since Saturday lunchtime.
Not from me. Write us off at your peril after 5 games.
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I agree.

It's been a strange beginning to the season with some players coming back late and the injuries we've had.
Every other team would suffer without KDB, Rodri and Ake and added to that, Stones and Foden have barely played and one of our brightest young lads is also out injured. Yet we're still unbeaten and still the team to beat!

COME ON CITY!!!!
 
supercity88 said:
If you look at how dominant we were against Arsenal until Rodri went off, it was always a hard task to go to St James the first chance we had to experiment without him. And as I said, missing KDB or a fully fit Foden plus a below par Gundo made that a bigger challenge.

Take the point and we go again. Got a good chance to work on things in the CL before the weekend.

It's a tough ask to win the league without Rodri, but I would never write us off.
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Same as. If someone can do just some of what Rodri does then that's a massive boost.
 
thismeansfour said:
We had every game prior to Arsenal experimenting without him and with success. Pep has struggled for years to find a way without him but only in a small group of games. Hopefully now he has to for a season he finds that way.
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We didn't need to experiment because we knew he was coming back. I don't mean experimenting as in chucking random players in, I mean it more in terms of whether he'd consider a more drastic change to our structure and system to help us cope. With Rodri on the pitch we dominated Arsenal. He went off, they got a foothold. Against the best sides, he won't play Rico as a RB inverting, he'll play him in midfield if at all. Walker can't invert, and it leaves us potentially lacking in the midfield where Rodri otherwise just mops up everything and is the force that helps us unlock teams.

Without Foden and De Bruyne, and I mean Foden of last season, it's a harder job. I'd like to see Gvardiol inverting personally. I think he's the physical player we need there, whilst being excellent on the ball. But I think the issue there is Dias tends to be the choice at LCB and just couldn't cover the space the way Akanji can from RCB if someone inverts.
 
supercity88 said:
We didn't need to experiment because we knew he was coming back. I don't mean experimenting as in chucking random players in, I mean it more in terms of whether he'd consider a more drastic change to our structure and system to help us cope. With Rodri on the pitch we dominated Arsenal. He went off, they got a foothold. Against the best sides, he won't play Rico as a RB inverting, he'll play him in midfield if at all. Walker can't invert, and it leaves us potentially lacking in the midfield where Rodri otherwise just mops up everything and is the force that helps us unlock teams.

Without Foden and De Bruyne, and I mean Foden of last season, it's a harder job. I'd like to see Gvardiol inverting personally. I think he's the physical player we need there, whilst being excellent on the ball. But I think the issue there is Dias tends to be the choice at LCB and just couldn't cover the space the way Akanji can from RCB if someone inverts.
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That was my point, we have coped more than anything when he has missed a few games. This is now where Pep earns his money and finds a way and a system that can work.
 
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