The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
Gundogan's Moustache said:
The Trafford shithole be will be toxic on Sunday and Villa will be 3 up before half time

Forest and Chelsea both have to win to have any chance

Fancy Everton may be a surprise that shake Newcastle
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The Man Utd v Villa game is hard to predict because I think Utd might be very motivated to show that they are not the bunch of mugs that the football world thinks they are.
 
117 M34 said:
Sort of on topic but as there are 6 premier league clubs in the champions league, each club will earn quite a lot less from being in it than thisnyear when there were 4 in it.
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I think this was more the case a few years ago when TV rights were a bigger part of the pot.
Also, if City qualify we get bigger share of TV money based on recent performance metrics in Europe, but yes Value Pillar (35% of prize money) will be split into 6 rather than 4.

"The UEFA Champions League revenue distribution for the 2025/26 season follows the framework established for the 2024/25 season, with minor adjustments expected due to projected revenue increases. UEFA’s total commercial revenue for its men’s club competitions (Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, and Super Cup) is projected to be between €4.6 billion and €4.8 billion per season from 2024–27, with the Champions League distributing approximately 73% of this, or €2.422 billion to €2.496 billion, among the 36 participating clubs. Below is a detailed breakdown of how this revenue is expected to be divided, based on the 2024/25 model and available projections for 2025/26.

Revenue Distribution Framework
The revenue is allocated across three main pillars, with additional payments for knockout stages, solidarity, and the Super Cup. The 2024/25 season introduced a new format with a 36-team league phase, and this structure is expected to remain consistent for 2025/26. The distribution pillars are:
  1. Equal Shares (Starting Fees) – 27.5% of Total Prize Pool (~€666 million to €688 million)
    • Each of the 36 clubs qualifying for the league phase receives a fixed participation fee of €18.6 million. This ensures all clubs, regardless of performance, receive a baseline payment.

    • This pillar incentivizes qualification and supports smaller clubs entering the competition.
  2. Performance-Related Payments – 37.5% of Total Prize Pool (~€908 million to €936 million)
    • League Phase Bonuses:
      • €2.1 million per win in the league phase (eight matches per team).
      • €700,000 per draw, with undistributed draw amounts redistributed proportionally based on wins.
    • League Ranking Bonus:
      • A total of €183 million is divided into 666 equal shares (valued at ~€275,000 each). Each team receives shares based on their final league phase ranking (e.g., 1st place gets 36 shares, ~€9.9 million; 36th place gets 1 share, ~€275,000).

    • Knockout Stage Bonuses:
      • Knockout round play-offs: €1 million.
      • Round of 16: €9.6 million.
      • Quarter-finals: €10.6 million.
      • Semi-finals: €12.7 million.
      • Final: €15.6 million.
      • Winner: Additional €5.5 million.

    • A club achieving a perfect run (e.g., eight wins in the league phase, topping the table, and winning the final) could earn over €70 million from performance bonuses alone.
  3. Value Pillar – 35% of Total Prize Pool (~€847 million to €873 million)
    • This pillar combines the former UEFA coefficient (based on 10-year performance in UEFA competitions) and market pool (based on the value of a country’s TV market).

    • European Part: Allocated based on domestic broadcasters’ contributions to media revenue, with clubs ranked by their performance in UEFA competitions over the past five seasons (reduced from 10 years to emphasize recent performance).

    • Non-European Part: Proportional to media rights sales outside UEFA’s jurisdiction, concluded by July 1, 2025. For example, if European markets contribute 75% of media rights, the value pillar splits 75% European and 25% non-European.

    • This pillar favors clubs from larger TV markets (e.g., England, Germany) and those with strong recent European performances (e.g., Real Madrid, Manchester City)."
 

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what needs to happen for Chelsea to end up for them to qualify for Conference League again?
would be funny hahaha, another dozen games vs Slovenian 4th and Finnish 3rd with some Bulgarian 4th in there.

they need to lose the final vs Betis and also finish like 7th?
 
Scooby Blue said:
I think this was more the case a few years ago when TV rights were a bigger part of the pot.
Also, if City qualify we get bigger share of TV money based on recent performance metrics in Europe, but yes Value Pillar (35% of prize money) will be split into 6 rather than 4.

"The UEFA Champions League revenue distribution for the 2025/26 season follows the framework established for the 2024/25 season, with minor adjustments expected due to projected revenue increases. UEFA’s total commercial revenue for its men’s club competitions (Champions League, Europa League, Conference League, and Super Cup) is projected to be between €4.6 billion and €4.8 billion per season from 2024–27, with the Champions League distributing approximately 73% of this, or €2.422 billion to €2.496 billion, among the 36 participating clubs. Below is a detailed breakdown of how this revenue is expected to be divided, based on the 2024/25 model and available projections for 2025/26.

Revenue Distribution Framework
The revenue is allocated across three main pillars, with additional payments for knockout stages, solidarity, and the Super Cup. The 2024/25 season introduced a new format with a 36-team league phase, and this structure is expected to remain consistent for 2025/26. The distribution pillars are:
  1. Equal Shares (Starting Fees) – 27.5% of Total Prize Pool (~€666 million to €688 million)
    • Each of the 36 clubs qualifying for the league phase receives a fixed participation fee of €18.6 million. This ensures all clubs, regardless of performance, receive a baseline payment.

    • This pillar incentivizes qualification and supports smaller clubs entering the competition.
  2. Performance-Related Payments – 37.5% of Total Prize Pool (~€908 million to €936 million)
    • League Phase Bonuses:
      • €2.1 million per win in the league phase (eight matches per team).
      • €700,000 per draw, with undistributed draw amounts redistributed proportionally based on wins.
    • League Ranking Bonus:
      • A total of €183 million is divided into 666 equal shares (valued at ~€275,000 each). Each team receives shares based on their final league phase ranking (e.g., 1st place gets 36 shares, ~€9.9 million; 36th place gets 1 share, ~€275,000).
    • Knockout Stage Bonuses:
      • Knockout round play-offs: €1 million.
      • Round of 16: €9.6 million.
      • Quarter-finals: €10.6 million.
      • Semi-finals: €12.7 million.
      • Final: €15.6 million.
      • Winner: Additional €5.5 million.
    • A club achieving a perfect run (e.g., eight wins in the league phase, topping the table, and winning the final) could earn over €70 million from performance bonuses alone.
  3. Value Pillar – 35% of Total Prize Pool (~€847 million to €873 million)
    • This pillar combines the former UEFA coefficient (based on 10-year performance in UEFA competitions) and market pool (based on the value of a country’s TV market).

    • European Part: Allocated based on domestic broadcasters’ contributions to media revenue, with clubs ranked by their performance in UEFA competitions over the past five seasons (reduced from 10 years to emphasize recent performance).

    • Non-European Part: Proportional to media rights sales outside UEFA’s jurisdiction, concluded by July 1, 2025. For example, if European markets contribute 75% of media rights, the value pillar splits 75% European and 25% non-European.

    • This pillar favors clubs from larger TV markets (e.g., England, Germany) and those with strong recent European performances (e.g., Real Madrid, Manchester City)."
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Great work. Let's Hooe we are in CL next season........land it's also useful to show the rags what they are missing out on
 
SCEtoAUX said:
Yep, we're 1/25 on Betfair. The odds don't lie and it would be the biggest last day upset for many years if we don't make top five.

Would quite like to see Villa beat the rags though, and Spuds get a point at home to Brighton, rags finishing 17th would be even funnier than the Spuds finishing 17th.
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I can only see odds for a top 5 finish - can’t see odds for City to finish out of the top 5. Willl keep looking
 
I take it people don't think Arse will lose at Southampton and we'll win by a big enough margin to overturn the eight goal difference deficit, thus finishing second.
 
I reckon there’s a 20% chance of Fulham beating City, 85% chance of Newcastle beating Everton, 40% chance of Chelsea beating Forest and 75% chance of Villa beating United.

So a 5.1% chance of us not making top 5?

No doubt people will legitimately dispute all of those estimates but we should still have around a 95% chance of qualifying
 
Desperado said:
If you bet on each game (fulham / chelsea / Newcastle / Villa ) all to win it gives you a 25/1 acca. Which would put City out of the top 5
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Which just means that it is possible but not likely that we miss out which I would have thought anyone with a basic knowlege of the fixtures involved and the possible permutations would rationally conclude. My guess is that we will draw and at least one of the other three results will go our way just in case.
 
I think the rags will beat Villa, Chelsea and Newcastle will both win, so I’m guessing that would see us qualify at Villa’s expense even if we lose, right?
 
Quite simply if the Rags, draw with or beat Villa we’ve qualified as a draw between Chelsea and Forest wouldn’t get either of them above us. If Forest win to leapfrog us they would need to overturn a goal difference of +13.
 
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I'm still nervous, despite all these long odds and favourable percentage predictions.

In my view, with a win or bust last game, Newcastle/Chelsea/Villa all should win. They have to go for it.

Which will obviously need us to do the business at Fulham.

It's been a mad season in many ways and who would be surprised if a 25:1 shot outcome prevailed?

The only thing that I can guarantee is that come 4pm on Sunday I will be more than slightly inebriated. C'mon City!
 
TueartsOHK said:
I can only see odds for a top 5 finish - can’t see odds for City to finish out of the top 5. Willl keep looking
Click to expand...
City are currently 1.03/1.04 to finish top 5
If you lay £100 at 1.04 - your liability is £4
This is the same as betting £4 at 25/1 that we don't finish in top 5
 
If you bet on 4 matches and they’re all on an early pay out could say Fulham be winning 2-0 and City come back to win 2-3. In those circumstances would the betting site pay out on the acca - all 4 games ?
Edit: assuming the other 3 matches are wins
 
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