next 4 for top4 rivals:
City: Newcastle home, Liverpool home, Spurs away, Forest away ( not many wins sadly maybe only one, I am optimistic with 5 points here)
Forest: Fulham away, Newcastle away, Arsenal home, City home (4-5 points at best imo from 12)
Chelsea: Brighton away, Villa away, Soton home, Leicester home (anything between 7-10 points)
Bournemouth: Soton away, Wolves home, Brighton away, Spurs away (6-7 points imo from 12)
Villa: Ipswich home, Chelsea home, Palace away, Brentford away (anything between 6-8 from 12)
Newcastle: City away, Forest home, Liverpool away, West ham home (anything between 4-6 points?)
so overall not too bad rivals have quite some hard runs as well not as hard as ours none of them doing max points surely to capitalize big time on our expected bad results in these 4 games.
still all of them can
makes it worse that none of them have any games in those slots where we have the two Real Madrid games so extra tiredness for us to navigate through.
if we are really bad in these 4 games (like no wins and basically 2 points or less from 12) it will be enough for them to push us down to 8th temporarily.
if we don anything like 6-7 points then we will be kind of where we are now which is not bad given our schedule is lot easier for the last 10 games and even harder games are left as home fixtures except the derby.
It's really hard to predict games this season. Aside from the dippers there's inconsistency throughout the league. It's a lot like the championship. We just need to stay in it. We're benefitting from that inconsistency so far. Without checking, I'd suspect in previous seasons we'd be a few points off 4th with our current tally - could be wrong.
Final 6 for us and our rivals are below. That will be crunch time and I feel we'll get it done. I see Villa as the biggest threat, but I don't think they'll balance CL/PL and when they inevitably get knocked out of the CL they've got tough PL fixtures to deal with.
Last 6
Forest - Spurs (a), Brentford (h), Palace (a), Leicester (h), West Ham (a), Chelsea (h)
City - Everton (a), Villa (h), Wolves (h), Southampton (a), Bournemouth (h), Fulham (a)
Newcastle - Villa (a), Ipswich (h), Brighton (a), Chelsea (h), Arsenal (a), Everton (h)
Chelsea - Fulham (a), Everton (h), Dippers (h), Newcastle (a), Rags (h), Forest (a)
Bournemouth - Palace (a), Rags (h), Arsenal (a), Villa (h), City (a), Leicester (h)
Villa - Newcastle (h), City (a), Fulham (h), Bournemouth (a), Spurs (h), Rags (a)