The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

  • Total voters
    1,364
  • Poll closed .
Damanino said:
does anyone think we go to old toilet and get 3 points? or beating Villa, Bournemouth at home? can see all these will be a draw.
that means 51p and 6 other games. we would need 15-16 points of that 18 points vs the lesser sides like 5 wins, 1 draw or 5 wins, 1 loss.

either way what is clear we need rivals start dropping points or more like continue as they are not very consistent apart from Forest who looks to be able step away from the rest.

also next game Leicester away absolute must win. honestly with them losing almost all their games if we go there and fail to beat Nistelrooys side thats a new low in this season. having said that can see 46 yo Vardy making fun of our defence.
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We will lose against scum i reckon
 
The pessimism in here is a little bit over the top. Since Christmas we've only lost to 1st, 2nd and 3rd (and that one narrowly). We also recently put 4 past Newcastle and beat Spurs away. We now don't play anybody in the top 7 for the rest of the season. People fear-mongering about Bournemouth and Villa, they've won 3 in their last 12 games between them both. They are where they are because they are in objectively worse form than we are.

We now have statistically by far the easiest run of fixtures of anybody vying for Champions League places. The modelling of the results says we need 4-5 wins from 9 very winnable games. We've currently won 14 from 29 games which were on average more difficult. Opta currently has us at 80%+ chance of top 5 based purely on form.

Is it a guarantee? No, of course not. But reading on here, you'd think we had no chance.
 
Think top 4 is gone.
We are definitely not top 3 material and lots of other teams are asking for top 4. Chelsea with a game in hand for one.

Top 5?
Maybe not. On current form, we are lucky to be in it.
 
On paper we should get in the top 4, but we are not playing on paper...yeah you've heard that before etc etc. Whether we get to top 4/5 is anyone's guess. We are very inconsistent right now. Defensively suspect at times and we struggle to break teams down. What a contrast from last season. I would like to believe we can do it, but based on the last 10 games I'm not so sure. That said, things could start to click for us and what I have said above is moot. Come on City!
 
My take on final straight

Look forward to last 9/10 games. We seem to have decent fixtures… on paper. It’s going to be tight, tight and could come down to g/d for 5th place.

Forest 6 ahead, 9 to play and beyond us. But they do play Villa (A) and last match Chavs (H) which could help us

Chelsea 1 ahead and game in hand. They have Fulham (A), Pool (H), Newcastle (A), Forest(A), Spurs (H) and Brentford (A). Assume they may drop 10- 12 points. Finish on 65 to 67 points.

Newcastle 1 behind but game in hand. They have Villa (A), Chelsea (H), Brighton (A) and Arse (A). Assume they may drop 9 points. Finish on 68 points

Brighton 1 behind. They have Villa (H), Palace (A), Brentford (A), Newcastle (H), Liverpool (H) and Spurs (A). Assume they drop 10-12 points. Finish on 64-65 points

Villa 3 behind and have to cope with PSG x2. They have Brighton (A), Forest (H), Newcastle (H), City (A), Bournemouth (A) and scum ((A). Assume they drop 9-12 points. Finish on 62-64 points

We have Leicester (A +3), Utd (A +1), Palace (H +3), Everton (A +1), Villa (H+3), Wolves (H+3), Saints A+3), Bournemouth (H +3), Fulham (A -)

So I reckon c19 points taking us to 67 points.

Pool
Arse
Forest
Newcastle 68
City 67
Chelsea 65-67
Brighton 64-65
Villa 62-64
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Mr Grumpy said:
Think top 4 is gone.
We are definitely not top 3 material and lots of other teams are asking for top 4. Chelsea with a game in hand for one.

Top 5?
Maybe not. On current form, we are lucky to be in it.
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You sound like Senna the soothsayer from Up Pompeii.

But more pessamistic!
 
Millwallawayveteran1988 said:
The only hope we have for me is that other teams remain as crap as we are and we sneak in. That’s two weeks where we have had a full week to prepare and then churned out those two performances. We really are very average currently and I can’t see what is going to change that.
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Makes you wonder what’s going on in training. Looks like it’s a case of keep plugging away with the usual system and hopefully it’ll work out.
 
Mr Grumpy said:
Think top 4 is gone.
We are definitely not top 3 material and lots of other teams are asking for top 4. Chelsea with a game in hand for one.

Top 5?
Maybe not. On current form, we are lucky to be in it.
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Our current form is 6th best in the league, and of those challenging us for 4th/5th spot only newcastle and brighton are above us by a point or 2

our form is as good as any team below the top 3, we are well i n the mix for the last 2 champions leagie places and if our form and others stay as they are we will qualify
 
Based on our points average this season, we are on course to finish with 63 points.

That would have got you 6th place in the last 3 seasons.

Something has to seriously change in the run in if we are to make it.

With so many teams involved in the hunt, along with the inconsistency of the rest, luckily it might be one of the lowest 5th placed points tallies we have had in the league.

Goal difference could be huge!
 
Gorbachev said:
We will just about scrape it because our fixtures are not the worst and the rest are just as inconsistent.

If it was just the top 4 we would really struggle.

We can afford to lose 3 and win 6 and still get 66 points which will be enough in my opinion.
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65 might do it too. 3 defeats are likely but we will struggle to win 6 games. Won't be easy.
 
Damanino said:
does anyone think we go to old toilet and get 3 points? or beating Villa, Bournemouth at home? can see all these will be a draw.
that means 51p and 6 other games. we would need 15-16 points of that 18 points vs the lesser sides like 5 wins, 1 draw or 5 wins, 1 loss.

either way what is clear we need rivals start dropping points or more like continue as they are not very consistent apart from Forest who looks to be able step away from the rest.

also next game Leicester away absolute must win. honestly with them losing almost all their games if we go there and fail to beat Nistelrooys side thats a new low in this season. having said that can see 46 yo Vardy making fun of our defence.
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Leicester is at home.
 
Don't think a point yesterday was a bad result. They're in better form than us.

It's not going to require us to win 9 on the bounce, just to find a few more wins and get around 66pts. We have had a tough run of games and are still very much in the mix. Everyone around us is inconsistent too and that's not going to change.

I still think we will do it, but I have said a few times I don't think it's a major issue if we don't. A lot of the younger players we have bought might benefit from developing in the lesser European competitions and it would allow us to rotate a bit more next season to attack the league again.
 
I've looked at our remaining PL fixtures. The 3 hardest game are... .

Villa at home.
Everton away.
Fulham away.

We've also got the Rags away. If we can't beat them, we don't deserve a top 5 CL place.
 
jrb said:
I've looked at our remaining PL fixtures. The 3 hardest game are... .

Villa at home.
Everton away.
Fulham away.

We've also got the Rags away. If we can't beat them, we don't deserve a top 5 CL place.
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Agreed, although rags look to be picking up some form of late. They always seem to raise their game against rivals.
Palace won't be easy if Mateta's playing. Only ones I'm not worried about are Leicester (although Steptoe could sting us) and the Saints. I just see Newcastle, Brighton, and Villa playing in better form than us right now, so it's going to go to the wire for two spots.
 
Chelsea and Newcastle got some very tough games, also play each other as well.

Chelsea play Forest away last game of the season, and Newcastle have Arsenal and Chelsea in 2 of their last 3 games.

Were shite, but we do have a very generous run of games where you'd 'expect' us to win at least 5 or 6 of our last 9 games, which I reckon will just about be enough for 4th.
 
How much do these players want it needs to be asked, quite a few of them will be off in the summer. I'm not overly confident.
 
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