The Top Five Race 2024-25 (poll added)

Will we make the top 5?

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I've been trying to figure out the earliest we could mathematically qualify for CL. I think it is basically the Newcastle v Chelsea game next week - but it would need a run of 5 plausible but optimistic results for us:

Probabilities according to Opta:
Chelsea fail to beat Liverpool (but can get a draw) - 55.5% chance
Palace beat Forest - 43.5% chance
We beat Southampton - 76.1% chance
Bournemouth beat Villa (though realistically given Villa's GD a draw will do here) - 35.5% chance

Then if Chelsea fail to beat Newcastle - about 60% chance - we've done it.

The combination of all that happening is about 1 in 25... so granted... not likely.
 
If arsenal lose their next two games v Liverpool and Newcastle, there is a realistic possibility that they could finish 5th

Unfortunately I think they’d also have to drop points v Southampton on the last day … won’t happen!! .. to finish outside the top 5, as teams that could overtake them play each other
 
Our game against Bournemouth on the Tuesday after the FA Cup now looks difficult. We need Forest and Chelsea to slip up to give us some breathing space.
 
Marvin. said:
Our game against Bournemouth on the Tuesday after the FA Cup now looks difficult. We need Forest and Chelsea to slip up to give us some breathing space.
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said this previous, we need a forest defeat at palace to take the heat off,if that happens we have a four point cushion with 3 games remaining to the teams in 6th and 7th
 
Lord Blue said:
Yep if Newcastle beat Arsenal they must be favourites for 2nd imo.

Newcastle have the possibility of slipping but then so have we.
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Newcastle win their their remaining games and they are guaranteed second.
That bad defeat to Villa was an unusual scoreline for them.
I suppose it doesn't really make much difference finishing between 2 and 5 at this stage but for arsenal it could be a real damp squib should they get knocked out by PSG next week.
Arsenal could end up winning nothing yet all of their rivals could potentially win something.

Pl liverpool
Carabao Newcastle
EL rags or Tottenham ?
Conf Chelsea?
FA Cup Palace or ourselves?
 
SkyBlueFlux said:
I've been trying to figure out the earliest we could mathematically qualify for CL. I think it is basically the Newcastle v Chelsea game next week - but it would need a run of 5 plausible but optimistic results for us:

Probabilities according to Opta:
Chelsea fail to beat Liverpool (but can get a draw) - 55.5% chance
Palace beat Forest - 43.5% chance
We beat Southampton - 76.1% chance
Bournemouth beat Villa (though realistically given Villa's GD a draw will do here) - 35.5% chance

Then if Chelsea fail to beat Newcastle - about 60% chance - we've done it.

The combination of all that happening is about 1 in 25... so granted... not likely.
Click to expand...
25-1 on that? None of that seems implausible or even unlikely!
 
The only important thing is qualifying for the Chumps League. If the rags might do it it's more important than ever now. Second is nothing but it's better than third.
 
Xhavenjoe said:
Newcastle win their their remaining games and they are guaranteed second.
That bad defeat to Villa was an unusual scoreline for them.
I suppose it doesn't really make much difference finishing between 2 and 5 at this stage but for arsenal it could be a real damp squib should they get knocked out by PSG next week.
Arsenal could end up winning nothing yet all of their rivals could potentially win something.

Pl liverpool
Carabao Newcastle
EL rags or Tottenham ?
Conf Chelsea?
FA Cup Palace or ourselves?
Click to expand...
I think you're forgetting the "we beat a poor Real Madrid side in a QF cup" there, champ.
 
The Light Was Yellow Sir said:
25-1 on that? None of that seems implausible or even unlikely!
Click to expand...

Well, that's how probabilities tend to go - a combination of N likely things all happening becomes increasingly unlikely the bigger 'N' is. The odds on getting heads on any of 10 coin flips individually is 50% - so quite likely. But the odds of all 10 being heads is about 0.1%.

The probability of City dropping points to a lower table team never seems particularly likely, but over a season we pretty much always do eventually.
 
johnnytapia said:
Nope. I’d get no fucking satisfaction from Newcastle being above Arsenal. City, yep. Newcastle, don’t give a fuck
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Think of it as Arsenal bottling it again and finishing below Newcastle.
If that does nothing for you, there must be a bit of you that would laugh if Arsenal finished 6th though?
 
City and Newcastle will finish 3rd and 4th.

Either Forest or Chelsea will get 5th. They play each other on the last day. I think Chelsea will need a win and they will get one.
 
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