Top 6 mini league 17/18

Chris in London said:
So that's why they call it Super Sunday :)

Anyway, the results of games between the top 6 teams are as follows:

Spurs 1 v 2 Chelsea
Liverpool 4 v 0 Arsenal
City 5 v 0 Liverpool
Chelsea 0 v 0 Arsenal
Chelsea 0 v 1 City
Liverpool 0 v 0 Rags
Spurs 4 v 1 Liverpool
Rags 1 v 0 Spurs
City 3 v 1 Arsenal
Chelsea 1 v 0 Rags

These then are the standings - with added goal difference :)

1 City played 3 points 9 GD 31
2 Chelsea played 4 points 7 GD 9
3 Rags played 3 points 4 GD 18
3 Liverpool played 4 points 4 GD 4
5 Spurs played 3 points 3 GD 13
6 Arsenal played 3 points 1 GD 4

Generally speaking, all of the top 6 teams have played at least 3 games now against other opposition and out of 10 games in total it is enough to see some meaningful patterns emerge. For instance the games involving Chelsea have all been low scoring affairs. Arsenal have scored one goal in three games against top 6 opposition albeit they haven't played top 6 opposition at home yet. The rags have scored one goal in three games against top 6 opposition even though they have played at home. Spurs have a great team, but also a bad habit (if you are Spurs) of simply not turning up in big games, especially if missing Harry Kane. Aggregate scores are becoming interesting: our aggregate score against top 6 opposition is 9-1. Compare that to Chelsea (3-2), Rags (1-1), Liverpool (5-9) Spurs (5-4) and Arsenal (1-7).

Also, some direct comparisons can now be made. Chelsea have played both us and the rags at home, and the results are chalk and cheese. We played Chelsea off the park, and keeping it to 1-0 rather flattered them, whereas yesterday they were definitely the better team, and again 1-0 flattered the rags. Spurs gave Liverpool a good hiding at Wembley but were beaten by Chelsea at the same ground. The pecking order amongst the top 6 has been clearly established; and whilst the mini league table doesn't exactly mirror the actual league table, the pattern of the results and performances does: we are streets ahead, then there is a cluster of rags, Spurs and Chelsea, then Arsenal and Liverpool are some way behind again.

As to the win over Arsenal, I was a bit surprised by the regular references before the game to only having beaten them once in 9 recently, because City have had some good wins against Arsenal in recent years especially at home: we beat them 3-0 immediately after the takeover, we had the Adebayor game, the 6-3 win a few years ago and a couple of narrow wins in there also. That said, yesterday's win was IMHO by a distance the easiest of them all. That was an Arsenal side that had a weeks rest (as they played a reserve team against Red Star) whereas we had been away to Naples. Even so if we had been as clinical as we usually are it would have ended up 5 or 6. They had some bad luck with the offside call but should have conceded a penalty when the score was 0-0 so they got one in their favour they shouldn't have got, and got one against that they shouldn't have got. As pep said, the better team won and I don't think even when talking himself into a disrepute charge the myopic M Wenger has disputed that.

We've had a couple of wins recently without finding top gear. Whilst its encouraging that we can win without being at our best, it's not encouraging that we've been below our best a few times recently - Wolves (okay, several team changes), West Brom and Sunday spring to mind. But after the almost perfect performance in Naples, I suppose some sort of come-down was inevitable. We may now have the luxury of resting and rotating our squad through the next couple of champions league games, as well as the League cup trip to Leicester.

As to the rags, a few things we talked about earlier in the season are ringing true. When they were getting giddy, it was pointed out that they hadn't played anyone yet. Now they have, their true level is becoming increasingly clear: they are capable of beating most mid-lower table teams (with a few stumbles along the way) and will be a tough nut even for top 6 teams to crack, but they are nowhere near as good as us. When you look at the teams they have beaten at home, Spurs apart they are all bottom half teams. Away from home they have beaten Swansea (19th) and Southampton (13th), drawn at Stoke (14th) and Liverpool (5th) and lost at Huddersfield (10th) and Chelsea (4th). 8 points from 18 is not the form of potential champions, and even at Southampton they were under the cosh for long periods.

This strikes me as significant: you can win the league by holding your own/not doing spectacularly well against top 6 opposition provided you are consistently ruthless against mid-table/bottom half ; and you can survive a few wobbles against mid-low league opposition if you are consistently getting the better of your closest rivals. But if you are dropping points against mid table sides your competitors are beating, and you are not reeling them in in the head-to head fixtures, you will not win the league. I remain confident that Spurs will be our closest challengers come May. I expect the rags to finish in the top 4 - probably 4th in fact - but wouldn't be wholly surprised if Liverpool put together some sort of run and end up catching them.
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Really good analysis mate. Agree with your conclusions. The only thing that will stop us this season is ourselves. Spuds are winning a lot of games by a single goal. They will start dropping points against mid table teams any time soon.
 
Saddleworth2 said:
Really good analysis mate. Agree with your conclusions. The only thing that will stop us this season is ourselves. Spuds are winning a lot of games by a single goal. They will start dropping points against mid table teams any time soon.
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Cheers. What that defeat at the swamp demonstrated was how reliant the Harry Kane team is on Harry Kane. They might beat mid table opposition without him, or might not, but they are one injury away from their season going rapidly downhill.
 
KCblue said:
Liverpool go to Spurs next Sunday the 22nd. Spurs then go to the swamp the week after.

Sunday 5th of November however is when we host Arsenal and Chelsea host the rags. My guess on the top 6 mini league after 5th November:

1. City played 3 points 9
2. Chelsea played 4 points 7
3. Spurs played 3 points 4
4. Liverpool played 4 points 4
5. Rags played 3 points 2
6. Arsenal played 3 points 1
Click to expand...

Close! This would have been spot on if Spurs had held on for another 10 minutes...
 
Chris in London said:
Cheers. What that defeat at the swamp demonstrated was how reliant the Harry Kane team is on Harry Kane. They might beat mid table opposition without him, or might not, but they are one injury away from their season going rapidly downhill.
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I was looking at the 'other' league table earlier - the top 6 vs everyone else. No great surprises in the results:

City played 8 (w7,d1) points 22
Chelsea pl 7 (w5, l2) points 15
Dippers pl7 (w4, d3) points 15
Rags pl 8 (w6, d1, l1) points 19
Spuds pl 8 (w6, d2) points 20
Arsenal pl 8 (w6, l2) points 18

What it does show is that not many points are being dropped (relatively) by the top 6 against teams outside the top 6. That just highlights how important it is for us to keep beating our direct competitors as we cannot rely on the likes of Spuds dropping points to anyone but top 6. Our two games in Dec vs Rags and Spuds are important to win to ensure we maintain the pressure - if we lost one or both we could easily find ourselves being drawn back into the mix. We certainly can't afford any sloppy draws/losses against mid table teams - Leicester, Newcastle and Huddersfield will present a good challenge. So far, so good but this Blue is a long way from getting complacent yet.
 
I expect City to be just 4 points clear by end of November.

Liverpool arent done yet and could even go on to challenge for the title if everything goes right for them.

Utd I expect to catch us by end of Novemebr.

But lets see how we do against Leicester, yet another litmus test
 
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