United thread 2012/13 (inc merged IPO thread)

[Ja Salford Blue]

One for Prestwich Blue:

apologies for my ignorance on this as I know diddly squat on finance!

at any point during this share issue can the Glaziers turn round and say, forget what we said about reducing the debt, we are now keeping all the proceeds for ourselves?

I'm thinking, that now that the share price has fell they will not be getting as much as they first thought will they? so can they say sod it we are keeping the lot?

They could do that I guess but they would cook their goose completely if they did. The shares would presumably dive and there would probably be lawsuits flying around.

Oh I get it, so they would feck up any chances of doing another flotation on the remaining 90% if they did that then?


cheers mate,

 

[Latics Fan SJK]

1. Have they ever attempted to value United at $3.3bn? I know they did value them at $2bn which was optimistic anyway, but i don't remember them being so optimistic to the tune of $3.3bn.

2. Real Madrid aren't valued at €1.8bn - I'm sure I read it's something like €1.5bn meaning they are the 2nd biggest club in the world.

3. Those claiming they have 659m fans worldwide is absolute codswallop. Have they fuck.

4. They are still the biggest club in the world. However, I can't see that status lasting much longer the way things are goin unless something very positive happens.

1) Yes <a class="postlink" href="http://www.stockmarketdigital.com/ipos/manchester-united-sets-ipo-terms" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.stockmarketdigital.com/ipos/ ... -ipo-terms</a>

<a class="postlink" href="http://football.uk.reuters.com/football/news/2012/08/10/21A303C0-E27A-11E1-B413-71ED7F33923B.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://football.uk.reuters.com/football ... 33923B.php</a>

Fair do's. Although I think it was more over-optimism rather than genuine belief they were worth that much!

2) Forbes values Madrid at $1.88 Billion

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.canada.com/sports/soccer/ranked+most+valuable+sports+franchise/6944661/story.html" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.canada.com/sports/soccer/ran ... story.html</a>

They also have Utd at $2.2bn but those were April '12 figures (I think)

3) Very true

4) Deloitte has Real Madrid top of the turnover list (2 places above Utd) with a turnover over 100m Euro's higher

<a class="postlink" href="http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/industries/sportsbusinessgroup/sports/football/deloitte-football-money-league/d7b295aa0c415310VgnVCM1000001a56f00aRCRD.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.deloitte.com/view/en_GB/uk/i ... 0aRCRD.htm</a>

Those figures are from 10/11 aren't they? Plus, that's just turnover If I read correctly. United are still the biggest club in the world even though I'd imagine turnover for Real would have been higher in 11/12 than United's too thanks to a better League & Champs League performance.

 

[SWP's back]

They have Utd at $2.2 Bn yes but now Utd have shares trading (in a few hours) then they are valued according to that rather than estimates.

Not sure how "big" is defined, but I'd say turnover with have a big say and Utds will have dropped last season whilst madrids will have increased.

 

[Anonymous]

1. Have they ever attempted to value United at $3.3bn? I know they did value them at $2bn which was optimistic anyway, but i don't remember them being so optimistic to the tune of $3.3bn.

2. Real Madrid aren't valued at €1.8bn - I'm sure I read it's something like €1.5bn meaning they are the 2nd biggest club in the world.

3. Those claiming they have 659m fans worldwide is absolute codswallop. Have they fuck.

4. They are still the biggest club in the world. However, I can't see that status lasting much longer the way things are goin unless something very positive happens.

From the very little I understand of these things mate, I think the $20 share price, if they had achieved it, was the one that would have valued the club (and I use that term advisedly) at $3.3bn.

 

[Latics Fan SJK]

1. Have they ever attempted to value United at $3.3bn? I know they did value them at $2bn which was optimistic anyway, but i don't remember them being so optimistic to the tune of $3.3bn.

2. Real Madrid aren't valued at €1.8bn - I'm sure I read it's something like €1.5bn meaning they are the 2nd biggest club in the world.

3. Those claiming they have 659m fans worldwide is absolute codswallop. Have they fuck.

4. They are still the biggest club in the world. However, I can't see that status lasting much longer the way things are goin unless something very positive happens.

From the very little I understand of these things mate, I think the $20 share price, if they had achieved it, was the one that would have valued the club (and I use that term advisedly) at $3.3bn.

Yes mate, I've just read that.

I'd guess that, like I mentioned above, it was an over-optimistic valuation that they never really expected them to sell at.

Kind of a flipside to a club putting a bid in for a player that was way below the presumable asking price because you know they will want more.

 

[Anonymous]

1. Have they ever attempted to value United at $3.3bn? I know they did value them at $2bn which was optimistic anyway, but i don't remember them being so optimistic to the tune of $3.3bn.

2. Real Madrid aren't valued at €1.8bn - I'm sure I read it's something like €1.5bn meaning they are the 2nd biggest club in the world.

3. Those claiming they have 659m fans worldwide is absolute codswallop. Have they fuck.

4. They are still the biggest club in the world. However, I can't see that status lasting much longer the way things are goin unless something very positive happens.

From the very little I understand of these things mate, I think the $20 share price, if they had achieved it, was the one that would have valued the club (and I use that term advisedly) at $3.3bn.

Yes mate, I've just read that.

I'd guess that, like I mentioned above, it was an over-optimistic valuation that they never really expected them to sell at.

Kind of a flipside to a club putting a bid in for a player that was way below the presumable asking price because you know they will want more.

Exactly. And I dived into this thread about 30 mins too late it would appear! ;-)

It seems this IPO then has been a bit of a damp squib. The positives for us so far is that they are not that much further on from where they were before then?

 

[Latics Fan SJK]

From the very little I understand of these things mate, I think the $20 share price, if they had achieved it, was the one that would have valued the club (and I use that term advisedly) at $3.3bn.

Yes mate, I've just read that.

I'd guess that, like I mentioned above, it was an over-optimistic valuation that they never really expected them to sell at.

Kind of a flipside to a club putting a bid in for a player that was way below the presumable asking price because you know they will want more.

Exactly. And I dived into this thread about 30 mins too late it would appear! ;-)

It seems this IPO then has been a bit of a damp squib. The positives for us so far is that they are not that much further on from where they were before then?

Depends on how you look at it really.

The way I see it, it's not ideal but it's not the end of the world either. I think a lot of people were expecting the shares to go for even less so, whilst they shares did sell for $4-$6 less than what the Glaziers wanted, it's still more than what a lot of people, on the outside looking in, were expecting them to go for.

I'd have thought something like a marquee signing or something like that might have upped the share price a tad perhaps.

 

[ABU inc GDR]

From the very little I understand of these things mate, I think the $20 share price, if they had achieved it, was the one that would have valued the club (and I use that term advisedly) at $3.3bn.

Yes mate, I've just read that.

I'd guess that, like I mentioned above, it was an over-optimistic valuation that they never really expected them to sell at.

Kind of a flipside to a club putting a bid in for a player that was way below the presumable asking price because you know they will want more.

Exactly. And I dived into this thread about 30 mins too late it would appear! ;-)

It seems this IPO then has been a bit of a damp squib. The positives for us so far is that they are not that much further on from where they were before then?

The IPO hasn't happened yet, it's due to start later today but the MEN has already run the headline "Utd most valuable club in world despite share price cut"

I posted in response;

The claim "utd are the most valuable club in the world" has no basis in fact and is a media spin put out ahead of the IPO which hasn't even taken place to dampen the negative story that the Glazers have had to reduce the price of the share from $16-20 to $14 because of a lack of interest. The market analysts valued a fair price for the shares at $10, this would equate to a $1.8bn valuation which would be equal to Real Madrid, your also ignoring the fact that theres $650mill of debt.

This is like me borrowing $30k and buying a car for $100k and then advertising the car for $1mill and claiming the car is worth that and then the MEN printing an article confirming that because I said so !!!!!

MEN reporting at it's worst!

All we know is their wild claims about 659 million supporters is wrong, they're worth anything between $1.8 and 2.2bn and won't raise the money they had expected from the IPO. In 2 weeks after the float we'll all know more.

 

[aussie blake]

Market prediction for the day; a fairly strong showing throughout before dropping 8 points in the blink of an eye towards the end.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

The way it worked was that they had an indicative price range of $16-20 but then potential investors put in offers after the roadshow and looking at the figures. Some did meet the valuation I gather but to actually get the offer to be fully or near-fully subscribed required them to take offers around the $14 mark. It may yet be that the underwiters ended up with some shares but we won't know that until later on I guess.

The important thing now is the price they trade at on the market as that gives the best indicative value of what the Glazers could get. That's at the mercy of their on-the-pitch performance now so if they bomb out the CL again, the share price will go down. When Baconface retires, unless they get Mourinho or Guardiola then the share price will go down. If they bring in RVP, that's £20+m cash and £12m a year out of their already depleted coffers.

My suspicion is that if the share price does dive, the Glazers will seek to "de-list" making it harder for people to sell.