United thread 2012/13 (inc merged IPO thread)

[ABU inc GDR]

1) Yes <a class="postlink" href="http://www.stockmarketdigital.com/ipos/manchester-united-sets-ipo-terms" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.stockmarketdigital.com/ipos/ ... -ipo-terms</a>

<a class="postlink" href="http://football.uk.reuters.com/football/news/2012/08/10/21A303C0-E27A-11E1-B413-71ED7F33923B.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://football.uk.reuters.com/football ... 33923B.php</a>

You probably know I'm no fan of the Glazers but being objective, and using the proposed price range of the shares as a guide, they valued the club at $2.65b to $3.3b. Whilst I'm sure they were hoping to achieve the higher end of the range, the lower figure isn't too far away from the $2.3b valuation that a $14 share price suggests.

Incidentally, I'm no financial expert but to my untrained eye it looks that the Glazers own greed may well have impacted on the valuation they sought. Had they continued with the initial plan of using all funds raised to pay down the clubs debt, rather than trousering half the money themselves, surely the business would've been more attractive to potential investors (double the amount of debt cleared, significantly reduce ongoing interest payments AND, for once, look like men of their word is surely better than what's actually on offer).

As it stands, from what I've read many analysts still believe the club's been overvalued so we just need to wait and see until the shares find their level - underwritten or not I think the Glazers really need it to be around the quoted figure..

It's the underwriters that are in control of the share price not the Glazers, they reduced the price to $14 yesterday but that's still way overvalued based on the markets analysts fair value share price of $10. The investors initial negative reaction is more involved than just the level of debt they intend to write off. The glazers haven't been transparent on a number of issues, the valuation is based on forcasted 2014 earnings, they have delayed in declaring last years accounts as these show a 10-15 reduction in revenue. The 659 million fan base figure which is essential to supporting a global brand argument is flawed, the numbers were massaged and included fans who supported a local team first and utd was their 2nd choice. I could go on and on but the upshot is the share value will be between $10 and $14, as there is only 10% of the business for sale it's only an indication of the value of the business which I expect to be arround the $1.8bn which is the same as Madrid.

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

On the GM thing, if Ewanick circumvented company spending limits by spreading the cost over various budgets you'd imagine that was against company policy. As such you'd think the company might be able, should they wish to, renegotiate the deal, or simply enter a legal challenge to it claiming it was signed by, essentially, a fraudster. Maybe Uniteds "bumper" sponsorship deal may not end up being quiet as lucrative as they'd hope!

Good point Matty. I was involved in a situation a few years ago where I was working under a contract that had been signed outside the authority limit of the approver and the agreed process. I obviously didn't know this but when it became clear, the contract was ripped up and a new one negotiated.

 

[Matty]

On the GM thing, if Ewanick circumvented company spending limits by spreading the cost over various budgets you'd imagine that was against company policy. As such you'd think the company might be able, should they wish to, renegotiate the deal, or simply enter a legal challenge to it claiming it was signed by, essentially, a fraudster. Maybe Uniteds "bumper" sponsorship deal may not end up being quiet as lucrative as they'd hope!

Good point Matty. I was involved in a situation a few years ago where I was working under a contract that had been signed outside the authority limit of the approver and the agreed process. I obviously didn't know this but when it became clear, the contract was ripped up and a new one negotiated.

Yeah, having worked for a while now for a company which works under contract to other companies I'm well aware that everyone will try and renegotiate deals or squirm out of them should they have the opportunity. There's absolutely no way GM haven't been having extremely indepth high level board meetings related to the United sponsorship deal and discussing their options for getting out of it, if doing so is in their companies interests.

 

[blue b4 the moon]

Just had a look on the web and cannot find a 'live' feed for the prices.

Are they up and running yet?

Is there a site we can watch the figures fall?

 

[JM Mcr]

1) Yes <a class="postlink" href="http://www.stockmarketdigital.com/ipos/manchester-united-sets-ipo-terms" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://www.stockmarketdigital.com/ipos/ ... -ipo-terms</a>

<a class="postlink" href="http://football.uk.reuters.com/football/news/2012/08/10/21A303C0-E27A-11E1-B413-71ED7F33923B.php" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;">http://football.uk.reuters.com/football ... 33923B.php</a>

You probably know I'm no fan of the Glazers but being objective, and using the proposed price range of the shares as a guide, they valued the club at $2.65b to $3.3b. Whilst I'm sure they were hoping to achieve the higher end of the range, the lower figure isn't too far away from the $2.3b valuation that a $14 share price suggests.....

It's the underwriters that are in control of the share price not the Glazers....

So the Glazers didn't value Utd at up to $3.3bn, the underwriters did? Wouldn't the Glazers have had any control over the proposed valuation at all?

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Just had a look on the web and cannot find a 'live' feed for the prices.

Are they up and running yet?

Is there a site we can watch the figures fall?

"live" feeds are delayed for 15 minutes or more so that paying customers don't complain. We'll see what the price is in the next few minutes. NYSE market indices are down though in early trading.

 

[AustinBlue]

Underwriters having to sit on the bid to stabilize it at $14.... massive selling pressure.<br /><br />-- Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:50 pm --<br /><br />Original price $16-20, struggling to hold at $14... this is going to be fun!!

 

[dannyirishblue]

i haven't got a clue whats going on :/

 

[Prestwich_Blue]

Underwriters having to sit on the bid to stabilize it at $14.... massive selling pressure.

-- Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:50 pm --

Original price $16-20, struggling to hold at $14... this is going to be fun!!

Going down, going down, going down....

 

[dannyirishblue]

Underwriters having to sit on the bid to stabilize it at $14.... massive selling pressure.

-- Fri Aug 10, 2012 2:50 pm --

Original price $16-20, struggling to hold at $14... this is going to be fun!!

Going down, going down, going down....

somebody send me a feed or somethin so i can act like i know wtf is goin on lol