A 1-1 draw was always there in the back of my mind today, even when everything around me was screaming a comfortable 3-0 in Bayern's favour. I've got no idea why I didn't put a bet on and I'm kicking myself for it. Tonight showed why United have been so excellent away, and yet so poor at Old Trafford.
The answer is simple: Moyes sets up not to lose first.
All of United's chances in the first half came from aimless lumps up-field after Bayern's final pass just hadn't come off due to the sheer amount of United players defending in their own penalty area. United have played like the away side almost all season, which is why, when teams come to United with either an extra midfielder or a plan to hit on the break, they've not been able to cope.
Away from home it's always a different story. No matter who you are, you always try to keep possession at home. It's your own turf. It's your ball. So, like tonight, United allow a team to pass the ball around in front of them and then capitalise on a lapse in concentration from the opposition. It happened at West Brom, Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, West Ham and a couple of other places. United have won away so often this season because the opposition they've faced from the lower half have been so terrible.
Only, when they've come up against disciplined sides like City, Liverpool and Chelsea, their system has come unstuck. Teams in the top half of the table don't make anywhere near as many mistakes as teams in the lower half of the table do. Moyes isn't a man who takes risks, and he's always, always paid for it against the big sides. He's played 48 times away from home to teams who finished in the top 4 the previous season and won none of those games.
Tonight, if Bayern's final ball had been sharper, they would have been out of sight. But United took advantage of that and defended with the discipline they've lacked at home this season and grew steadily as the game went on. They get their goal from a set-piece (another Moyes trait) but can't quite keep their concentration for the 90 minutes and Bayern score. For Bayern's goal United's defence were properly stretched for the first time in the game and three of their players (Fellaini, Jones, Ferdinand) all switched off.
Moyes will continue to hold them back in this way unless he radically changes his approach. £200m and who knows, he might just do that, but I very much doubt he'll be around long enough to spend that kind of money before the axe is swung and he's vying to be Scotland's next manager.