US & Israel attack Iran

He may have TACO'd again but there is nothing moving through the Straits of Hormuz yet....

Shipping lines will still avoid the area for some time…


But shipping analyst Lars Jensen, who previously worked for Danish logistics giant Maersk, tells BBC Radio 4's Today programme that "nothing has really changed yet" in the strait - adding "it will take time" for trust to build.

He say he expects to see many vessels exiting the Gulf in the next few days, but only a "trickle" entering due to the possibility of ships becoming trapped if the ceasefire breaks down.
 
Unfortunately this morning the fragile peace/ceasefire does not include Israeli strikes on Lebanon, sadly no peace for the one million displaced people. The IDF has struck the southern Lebanese city of Tyre after issuing forced evacuation notices to the residents of the region.


Last night the IDF killed at least eight people and injured 22 in an airstrike on a cafe in the Lebanese port city of Sidon. The strike follows remarks by Netanyahu that a “ceasefire agreement with Iran does not extend to Lebanon”
 
It would be ok if he was just an embarrassment. He’s that every day.
He’s a fucking traitor.

People need to understand that the only geopolitical value Orbán has is that he undermines the EU. He leaks everything to Russia (presumably Trump as well), he vetoes anything that would help the EU, anything that would hurt US or Russian control and does everything he can to sow division and stop it being an effective bloc.

When Trump and Putin go to bat for him, it’s because of this, it’s because the US government is attacking the EU from inside.
 
At the time I believed the 30,000 number in January.

Everything that's come out since is making me seriously doubt it.

In the last week we've had confirmed by Trump and Israeli administrations

- The US deliberately crashed the Rial in December to cause riots.
- Israel launched a massive campaign to stir up protests.
- The USA sents thousands of weapons to arm the protests.
- The only people we are hearing from in Iran are the ones Israel and the US smuggled starlinks to and the BBCs reporting has been shown to be completely compromised as it's run by someone paid by Reza Pahlavi.
- The US has shown it will routinely lie about any and everything involving Iran. Casualty numbers, who is responsible for attacks, war crimes etc.

I still think the IRGC and Islamic Republic are bastards with a long a detailed history of oppressing it's citizens and would love Iranians to overthrow them, and tbh I'm not sure my position on them changes whether the number is 7,000 or 30,000 but we cannot take any numbers coming out seriously any more, and we cannot treat what happened as it was reported at the time. We know for an absolute fact these weren't organic protests, but a deliberate, orchestrated attack on the Iranian government by the 2 countries who illegally attacked it 2 months later because they've proudly admitted as much.


And by doing so, Israel and the Trump admin have successfully set back the genuine growing resistance to the regime that was growing over the past decade, killed any moderating voices, wiped out most of the political anti-IRGC wing that could have brought in modernisation, and gotten thousands of Iranians killed while confirming to the average Iranian that America is the great satan that wants to wipe them out.

All because Netenyahu wanted his war and finally found a US president stupid enough to do it.

Oh and they've likely caused a global recession.
This is where neutrality is important.

Your argument just doesn't wash because the question isn't about numbers, it's about what happened. Did the Iranian regime authorise the murder of its own citizens on the streets? Yes it did, the other context is irrelevant unless you do support state murder in certain circumstances.

As a starter you therefore have to seriously question the sanity of anyone who says that Iran should be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon... And the fact is they were getting very close to doing so. I honestly believe that the people saying this deep down would like Iran to nuke Israel which is why their opinions are just invalid.

We have protests on our streets everyday and Starmer hasn't authorised the military to murder them. This is a self-protective action taken by the Iranian regime that is equivalent to the atrocities commited by Israel in Gaza. If the Iranian regime wasn't bombed then at the very least it should be stood in a dock in The Hague. The reality is that wouldn't happen and otherwise the Iranian regime would continue to support terror and war. That capability is now degraded, reduced or in many ways, gone.

At the end of the day if you want peace and peace only then you criticise everything that has happened on both sides. I'm just glad that Europe chose not to get involved because it is a huge mess. We don't know what the US endgame is but luckily we aren't playing any part of it.

Either way a critical distinction is the difference between the Iranian regime and its people. I worry for the Iranian people and what happens to the region but I just refuse to worry for bombs dropping on murderers.
 
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We have protests on our streets everyday and Starmer hasn't authorised the military to murder them.

We don’t have protests orchestrated and armed by foreign powers with the aim of overthrowing the government.

The killing of protesters was and will always be reprehensible and the entire reason we know so few facts about what happened is because Iran is an oppressive regime, but this is exactly my point, when the US and Israel are openly bragging about how they caused what happened in January, we can’t keep referring to it as a peaceful pro-democracy protest we have to reframe it for what it actually was. When enemy countries start and arm riots hoping to bring back a monarchist deposed 50 years ago you’re moving towards foreign backed coup attempt.

Which again, doesn’t excuse the violence but it does mean we should stop treating the reporting around it as factual and should recognise it was likely orchestrated as ground work for this illegal war.


Either way a critical distinction is the difference between the Iranian regime and its people. I worry for the Iranian people and what happens to the region but I just refuse to worry for bombs dropping on murderers.

I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention or not, but they’ve not been dropping bombs on murderers. They’ve been dropping bombs on bridges, schools, hospitals, mosques, synagogues, universities, pharmaceutical factories, nuclear power plants.

When Trump threatened to wipe out the entire civilisation and send them back to the Stone Age, they’re not talking about killing the IRGC

The missile sites and military infrastructure they were supposed to be destroying maintained a constant ability to counterattack for the entire 40 days.

Again, the nature of Irans regime means we might never know the true death toll but if we compare it to the same tactics used in Gaza it will be 5 figures.
 
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People need to understand that the only geopolitical value Orbán has is that he undermines the EU. He leaks everything to Russia (presumably Trump as well), he vetoes anything that would help the EU, anything that would hurt US or Russian control and does everything he can to sow division and stop it being an effective bloc.

When Trump and Putin go to bat for him, it’s because of this, it’s because the US government is attacking the EU from inside.

And they're not particularly subtle about it, they even spelt it out in US foreign policy a while back.
 
As a starter you therefore have to seriously question the sanity of anyone who says that Iran should be allowed to acquire a nuclear weapon... And the fact is they were getting very close to doing so

It’s worth posting this reply separately because this is a complete lie.

We know it’s a lie. It’s been proven to be a lie.

We know from the third party mediators (including British security advisers) in the pre-war peace talks that Iran was prepared to give up all its HEU. We know because IAEA inspectors were there all the time that they kept to JPCOA after signing it.

The US intelligence community confirmed they were not close to nuclear weapons and there was no risk of impending attack before the war.

Your entire basis for justifying this illegal war is a lie, and there is no excuse for believing it any more.
 

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