US Politics Thread

[MellowJoe]

I don't think black people will vote for her just because of her skin colour.

Saw polls the other day that the only person that would beat Trump was Michelle Obama.

She wouldn't want to do it though and I don't blame her.

Why not?

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

@SWP's back
I know you have some money riding on the outcome of the US Presidential race... Just curious: did you bet that Biden would become President, or were you betting that Trump would not?

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Kudos to @FogBlueInSanFran for long since predicting that Biden would not be the 2024 Democratic nominee for President. Though it turns out that FogBlue was spot on, the circumstances behind his departure were all but unpredictable.

I, for one, thought and argued that it would be Biden for months... ah well. Predicting the future makes mugs of us all :-)

I don’t deserve any credit; the thoughtful thing for him to do would have been to announce this a year at minimum ago. Too late now.

At least it sounds like so far the possible contenders have all gotten behind Harris so the convention isn’t a shit show.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Kudos to @FogBlueInSanFran for long since predicting that Biden would not be the 2024 Democratic nominee for President. Though it turns out that FogBlue was spot on, the circumstances behind his departure were all but unpredictable.

I, for one, thought and argued that it would be Biden for months... ah well. Predicting the future makes mugs of us all :-)

There were a few others that have argued he would likely (and should) not be the candidate for sometime, as well.

 

[mexico1970]

She has been polling level with Biden in the past few weeks (some polls up, some polls down), and internal data shows Biden was slipping considerably with likely progressive and independent voters. And those were “potential candidate” surveys which tend to underestimate support for a number of historically verified reasons.

I am just not sure what you mean by “popular”? Relative to whom?

Will she beat Trump? No one can possible predict that within any confidence right now.

But this “she has no hope” narrative being bandied about in the thread by a few is just not based in reality.

I'm not an American but can only call what I see, and I see people wanting a result they want rather than the result they are ultimately going to get, this mindset has caused this to happen.

Only a year ago Trump stood no chance, after seeing Biden totter about on stage and even after Trump was found guilty in a court of law he's now favourite for the big job.

That's not anyone's fault but Murica.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

There were a few others that have argued he would likely (and should) not be the candidate for sometime, as well.

Indeed. Kudos to all of them as well :-). I mentioned FogBlue specifically because I debated this point mostly with him.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

She has generally been polling level with Biden in the past few weeks (some polls up, some polls down), and internal data shows Biden was slipping considerably with likely progressive and independent voters. And those were “potential candidate” surveys which tend to underestimate support for a number of historically verified reasons.

I am just not sure what you mean by “popular”? Relative to whom?

Will she beat Trump? No one can possibly predict that within any confidence right now.

But this “she has no hope” narrative being bandied about in the thread by a few is just not based in reality.

And I suspect more based on those individual’s personal motivations when it comes to ideological conflicts than actual political analysis (I don’t think you are among that group, mind).

I think she's more polarising than biden and therefore possibly less appealing to swing voters. Having said that, US politics is so polarised nowadays that there may not be much sway or middle to fight for

 

[BayernMan]

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

It's not clear yet whom the Democratic nominee will be; the Democratic convention may be contested. If so, there are several candidates whom I think are much better than Harris.

It won’t be contested.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I think she's more polarising than biden and therefore possibly less appealing to swing voters. Having said that, US politics is so polarised nowadays that there may not be much sway or middle to fight for

I think how the Trump campaign (and MAGA movement) react to having a non-white woman as the Democratic candidate will have a larger impact on swing voter sentiment (and even possibly republican women voters) than people are currently predicting on here.