US Politics Thread

[TinFoilHat]

 

[Delboy352]

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but here is my prediction:
The cases will be delayed and Trump will be voted in as President
All cases will be dropped after he appoints a new DOJ
He will drop Ukraine right in it even if they push Russia back to the borders
He will argue that the Constitution should be changed so that a President can serve 2 consecutive terms if they have been separated, therefore serving 3 terms
Hope I’m wrong…

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but here is my prediction:
The cases will be delayed and Trump will be voted in as President
All cases will be dropped after he appoints a new DOJ
He will drop Ukraine right in it even if they push Russia back to the borders
He will argue that the Constitution should be changed so that a President can serve 2 consecutive terms if they have been separated, therefore serving 3 terms
Hope I’m wrong…

You will be wrong, thereby meeting your hopes.

 

[laserblue]

This dumb dumb dumb dumb motherfucker.

This stupid woman doesn't do irony and has no sense of self awareness whatsoever.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

I can’t believe I’m writing this, but here is my prediction:
The cases will be delayed and Trump will be voted in as President
All cases will be dropped after he appoints a new DOJ
He will drop Ukraine right in it even if they push Russia back to the borders
He will argue that the Constitution should be changed so that a President can serve 2 consecutive terms if they have been separated, therefore serving 3 terms
Hope I’m wrong…

Although unlikely, I think that there's a chance that much of what you fear (but not exactly as you predict) may transpire.

Let's break this down. I begin by numbering your predictions from 1-4 for ease of reference:
1. The cases will be delayed and Trump will be voted in as President
2. All cases will be dropped after he appoints a new DOJ
3. He will drop Ukraine right in it even if they push Russia back to the borders
4. He will argue that the Constitution should be changed so that a President can serve 2 consecutive terms if they have been separated, therefore serving 3 terms
===
1 - If Cannon continues to preside over the classified documents case, it's easily foreseeable that she'll be very receptive to arguments put forth by Trump's lawyers. I can easily imagine that this case is delayed if under her jurisdiction to 2025 or beyond, at which point, if Trump is president (or one of his many lackies win the office), he'll be pardoned.

Against this, is the chance that Cannon will be removed from the case or that she will not be receptive to delay. Additionally, federal charges against Trump related to the 1/6 capital invasion may be brought - and these charges will not be under Cannon's jurisdiction. Furthermore, state charges may be brought.

Odds: I'm honestly not sure how this will unfold. Were I forced to guess - I think that Cannon will remain in charge and that she'll be open to arguments by the defense, with the effect that the classified documents case is delayed beyond the 2024 election. But whether or not the documents case against Trump is delayed, the point is moot. If Trump or nearly any other Republican wins the presidency in 2024, he or she will simply pardon Trump of all federal crimes.

2 - If Trump is elected president he'll simply pardon himself from all federal crimes; whether or not a new DOJ is appointed is moot. This presupposes that Trump is elected president.

However, there are possible state charges against Trump, which are beyond the powers of a president to dismiss. But who knows what would transpire if Trump were elected president at the same time as he is convicted of state crime(s) (e.g., election interference in Georgia)? The proposition seems untenable.

Odds: Let's assume that all criminal charges against Trump are essentially dropped/pardoned regardless of jurisdiction should he be elected President in 2024. This means that the chance of prediction 2 happening is roughly the chance that Trump is elected President. Bookies place these odds at roughly 25% as of 6/1/2023.

3 - The likelihood of this is probably down to Trump winning the Presidency. Let's call the odds of this 25% as per prediction 2.

4 - It's going to be impossible to amend the constitution to allow a 3rd term in office. Might Trump contrive some other scheme to stay in office?

Even if a third term for Trump is impossible, he'll attempt to arrange for a chosen successor - and his ability to shape that outcome is much more likely than a third term in office.

Odds: A third term for Trump or Trump followed by his chosen successor is somewhat less than the odds of Trump being elected president in 2024. Really hard to assess this one.
======
Conclusion:

Bookies put the odds of Trump being elected president in 2024 (as of 6/1/2023 - and in spite of events since 6/1 I doubt that odds have changed much) at around 25%, against Biden's odds at 42%.

Given this, dismissing Delboy's fears out-of-hand (inclusive of outcomes roughly equivalent or worse) is foolhardy.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Although unlikely, IMO, I think that there's a chance that much of what you fear (but not exactly as you predict) may transpire.

Let's break this down. I begin by numbering your predictions from 1-4 for ease of reference:
1. The cases will be delayed and Trump will be voted in as President
2. All cases will be dropped after he appoints a new DOJ
3. He will drop Ukraine right in it even if they push Russia back to the borders
4. He will argue that the Constitution should be changed so that a President can serve 2 consecutive terms if they have been separated, therefore serving 3 terms
===
1 - If Cannon continues to preside over the classified documents case, it's easily foreseeable that she'll be very receptive to arguments put forth by Trump's lawyers. I can easily imagine that this case is delayed if under her jurisdiction to 2025 or beyond, at which point, if Trump is president (or one of his many lackies win the office), he'll be pardoned.

Against this, is the chance that Cannon will be removed from the case or that she will not be receptive to delay.

Odds: I'm honestly not sure how this will unfold. Were I forced to guess - I think that Cannon will remain in charge and that she'll be open to arguments by the defense, with the effect that this case is delayed beyond the 2024 election.

2 - If Trump is elected president he'll simply pardon himself from all federal crimes. This presupposes that Trump is elected president. Moreover, there are possible state charges against Trump, which are beyond the powers of a president to dismiss. On the other hand, who knows what would transpire if Trump were elected president at the same time as he is convicted of state crime(s) (e.g., election interference in Georgia).

Odds: Let's assume that all criminal charges against Trump are essentially dropped/pardoned regardless of jurisdiction should he be elected as President in 2024. This means that the chance of prediction 2 happening is roughly the chance that Trump is elected President. Bookies place these odds at roughly 25%.

3 - The likelihood of this is probably down to Trump winning the Presidency. Let's call the odds of this 25% as per prediction 2.

4 - It's going to be impossible to amend the constitution to allow a 3rd term in office. Might Trump contrive some other scheme to stay in office? And if, as I believe a third term for Trump is almost impossible, Trump will likely be satisfied if one of his sons is elected - and his ability to shape that outcome is much more likely IMO than a third term in office.

Odds: A third term for Trump or Trump followed by his chosen successor is somewhat less that the odds of Trump being elected president in 2024. Really hard to assess this one.
======
Conclusion:

Bookies seem to put the odds of Trump being elected president in 2024 (as of 6/1/2023 and in spite of events since 6/1 I doubt that odds have changed much) at around 25%, against Biden's odds at 42%.

Given this, dismissing Delboy's fears out-of-hand seems foolhardy. Should Trump win in 2024, most of Delboy's fears will either be realized exactly or if not, some other outcome just as dire as Delboy's predictions are likely.

During the Watergate scandal when it was clear that Nixon was toast, VP Spiro Agnew was a shoe in to take over the presidency. Had it not be for criminal indictments against him (bribery/corruption) forcing his resignation he would have been president. Agnew essentially agreed to plead to a lesser single charge of tax evasion and agreed to resign the vice-presidency in exchange for serving no jail time. All this despite him saying 'I will not reign if not indicted'.

This could be a potential outcome in the case of Trump, which will be hugely disappointing for a career criminal to get away with so many crimes.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

During the Watergate scandal when it was clear that Nixon was toast, VP Spiro Agnew was a shoe in to take over the presidency. Had it not be for criminal indictments against him (bribery/corruption) forcing his resignation he would have been president. Agnew essentially agreed to plead to a lesser single charge of tax evasion and agreed to resign the vice-presidency in exchange for serving no jail time. All this despite him saying 'I will not reign if not indicted'.

This could be a potential outcome in the case of Trump, which will be hugely disappointing for a career criminal to get away with so many crimes.

Perhaps, but I think very unlikely. If my assessment of Trump's personality is even remotely correct, pleading to a charge or even simply agreeing not to run for office is something Trump would never countenance.

 

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Perhaps, but I think very unlikely. If my assessment of Trump's personality is even remotely correct, pleading to a charge or even simply agreeing not to run for office is something Trump would never countenance.

Agree.

I think that Trump winning the nomination can only be stopped by some unforseen event.

But then same applies to him losing the next election. If all remain equal he will lose big. 80% of the non GOP registered American public believe it is right he should be charged. And as the case unfolds it will not go well for him as he has no defence. I don't see where/how he gets any swing voters to back him.

But given the age of both Trump and Biden then a health issue for either one could shift the dial in this race. It shouldn't but it can't be underestimated how much events in the lead up to a vote impact the outcome.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Agree.

I think that Trump winning the nomination can only be stopped by some unforseen event.

But then same applies to him losing the next election. If all remain equal he will lose big. 80% of the non GOP registered American public believe it is right he should be charged. And as the case unfolds it will not go well for him as he has no defence. I don't see where/how he gets any swing voters to back him.

But given the age of both Trump and Biden then a health issue for either one could shift the dial in this race. It shouldn't but it can't be underestimated how much events in the lead up to a vote impact the outcome.

Prediction - as they say is a mug's game.

That said, I agree with everything you've said.

Of note though - genetics seems to play a major role in longevity. In spite of his unhealthy lifestyle (diet, weight), I think that Trump will outlive Biden based on the age at which their parents died. If Biden were to die prior to reelection, then it might be Trump versus Harris - likely to the detriment of Democrats.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

LOL what a shock