US Politics Thread

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Once again a Trump/MAGA result that seems to way underperform all polling.

According to the 538 poll of polls his average lead was 61.6-34.0 = 27.6 points. The very worst poll for Trump out of the twelve or so done this month had him with a 21 point lead. Some polls had him leading by 45 points! He has actually won by 20.3%. Worse than the worst polling - and he failed to break 60% of the total vote share. In one of the Trumpiest states with the most engaged Republican voters he can’t even get 60% running as the de facto candidate. Compare this to Biden getting 96% as the de facto candidate despite all the flack and criticism he’s been taking.

Don’t get me wrong, this is still a win for Trump - and he will win the nomination easily, but it shows that:
1. The polls predicting Trump/MAGA support continue to consistently overestimate by about 7 points - roughly the same value for every primary/caucus so far.
2. With this in mind Nikki Haley actually does have a chance of carrying some states on Super Tuesday and eroding his dominance.
3. Trump’s general election signals should be sounding an alarm in GOP base. About a quarter of his own base seem to be refusing to vote for him.

Well observed post, but I think you meant ‘de facto winning candidate’! All candidates are de facto candidates!

 

[laserblue]

What a strange turn of events, using funds that are specific for campaigning and syphoning them off for personal gain.

Absolutely nuts, may as well just pay all the funds into his personal bank account.

Bear in mind he used campaign funds to pay off Stormy Daniels then claimed it as a business expense.

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Bear in mind he used campaign funds to pay off Stormy Daniels then claimed it as a business expense.

Strictly speaking it was!

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Well observed post, but I think you meant ‘de facto winning candidate’! All candidates are de facto candidates!

Yes, good spot, I meant ‘de facto nominee’.

Teaches me to dabble in Latin!

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Yes, good spot, I meant ‘de facto nominee’.

Teaches me to dabble in Latin!

Errare est humanum!

 

[KS55]

I’m not sure if I’m getting this right, are you saying that he can use campaign donations to pay his personal legal fees?

Seems every strange, like that bloke who has just been done for abusing the NRA funds in my mind.

Not only that but so far they have paid almost 500,000 USD for Melania's hair, makeup and couture styling and she is not even appearing for Donald.

 

[Alan Harper's Tash]

Errare humanum est!

:-)

 

[gordondaviesmoustache]

Not only that but so far they have paid almost 500,000 USD for Melania's hair, makeup and couture styling and she is not even appearing.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

:-)

With my limited state education I don’t have a clue who is correct but this is the kind of intellectual horseplay that I enjoy.

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

Bear in mind he used campaign funds to pay off Stormy Daniels then claimed it as a business expense.

Which I thought he’d just been done for?