Blue Maverick
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- 6 Aug 2010
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No Vinicius Jr styleWhat Neil Kinnock style?
No Vinicius Jr styleWhat Neil Kinnock style?
This data isn't corrected for the fact that dems are much more likely to use early voting than Republicans for various reasons.Piggy backing off this. Some interest early voting numbers. When you look at the registration of voters who have voted early:
View attachment 137110
It looks pretty much like there’s an even number of Rep and Dem early voters… but…
Some polling of early voters has been released today. Note that polling somebody after they’ve voted is a lot more accurate always, because you are asking about something that has already happened so people don’t have room to project or obfuscate. The early voting poll looks like this:
View attachment 137111
An average 24 pt lead.
What can we take from this? Well there’s some possibilities. Either:
- The party registration data is inaccurate. I think this is partly the case, some of it is based on how people voted in the primaries so there is some definite flex in there.
- The early voting polling is inaccurate. Again possible, but this is a series of polls by different pollsters all giving a 19-29 point lead, would seem unlikely that they’re all way out.
- Or both are accurate and therefore a lot of people who look statistically like Republicans in registration are actually voting Democrat. We know that this was the case for many people who’d supported Haley.
I think the truth is that it’s a combination of all of the above - but what is significant is that this early voting lead is more than double what Clinton had in 2016 (2020 not comparable given COVID).
I think it could still be close, but what I will say is the more data I see the more the odds of a complete Trump capitulation seem like a possibility. Far from certain though. Ultimately people need to get out and vote.
So no show at the victory paradeNo Vinicius Jr style
That would be worth seeing for the lols at maga (from this side of the Atlantic)I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
I thought it was the House of Reps that was the backstop. Worth checking.I saw a mad thing last night, if it’s a draw and it can be, congress vote on the president and the republicans control that so Trump would be president, however the senate is even but Harris has the casting vote and they vote for the vice president so she could vote herself in!
All the forecasts up to now have said that but feedback from the early voting suggests that might not be so, ie some Republican candidates surprisingly losing.I think it's near certain the Republicans are going to win the Senate back without it going to Harris's vote
country gets everything and everyone it deserves
That’s exactly what the **** is in favour of.What is corrupt about someone casting their vote for the candidate of their choice?
I presume this **** is is favour of women being told how to vote by their abusive partners?
Well done Nostradamus. No wonder you’re such a fucking expert on geopolitics.I’ll call this here, I expect some sort of civil uprest.