As
@SWP's back likes to remind us - the increasing bifurcation of gender voting patterns that was initiated since Roe v Wade was overturned has blown a hole in polling over the last 2 years. Repeatedly. In special elections, in mid-terms, in congressional elections, in gubernatorial elections - we've seen so many polls that haven't even been close to reality and they invariably underestimated women turning out to vote down anti-abortion sentiment.
Now... perhaps if I'm being generous, I'd suggest pollsters often update their methodology and could have done so for this cycle.
But even taking this into account, these gender divide numbers look similar to this stage 4 years ago in the swing states, but now the voting sentiment gap has widened significantly. So where is Trump's path to victory if we're seeing the same data as four years ago, suggesting the same people are turning out, but with worse implications for him? In the poll above it says "Trump's support among all white voters is 50%". Well then how does he win when that is only about 37% of the voting population? He is losing with literally every other demographic. Losing by a lot. And he'd basically need 40-50% of them.
I keep coming back round to this as my reasoning, but ignoring the polls completely, I don't know how Trump does better than 4 years ago, and I don't know how Harris does worse. The maths does not math.