He’ll withdraw support for Ukraine, and negotiate a peace deal where everything bar Crimea is handed back, under the conditions of NATO being disbanded and Ukraine joining the EU, probably with some sort of Russian peace keepers in the Donbas.
I agree with the first part about Trump withdrawing support for Ukraine, but not the rest of what you posted which tbf is well particularised.
I think, like Putin, Trump will greatly underestimate the will amongst other NATO members to (somewhat belatedly) continue to stand up to the very real threat that Russia poses to democracy and freedom in Western Europe.
Theoretically the US could leave NATO, although that won’t be solely up to Trump, but the rest of Western Europe will have to stand together and be faced with some serious choices about its commitment to repelling Russian aggression.
Assuming what remains of NATO decides to continue materially supporting Ukraine then this will unquestionably worsen transatlantic relations further.
Your output on this particular subject appears to be predicated on Russia under Putin being trusted to keep to any agreement that it signs, which it absolutely will not. History confirms this to be the case.
Do you actually think they will? Either you do, in which case you are hugely naive, or you don’t, in which case your views and ideas are fundamentally flawed, as it means you wanting Western Europe to sign an agreement with Russia that you do not believe the latter will keep to, made even more likely with an attenuated NATO.
So which is it?
In my opinion, they will simply rearm and go again in a few years, and I’d be interested to hear any reasoning as to why you believe this wouldn’t be the case, given the regime we are talking about, namely one that is partnered up with North Korea, has repeatedly threatened to use nukes in the last three years and one that sent radioactive material over to the UK in order to murder people living here.
That is what we would be ‘negotiating’ with.
