US Politics Thread

[FogBlueInSanFran]

Kicking off Election Day Eve festivities…

Reply to this post with your prediction of the final Harris and Trump vote (rounded) shares in the battleground states.

My prediction:

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump)
Georgia - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Michigan - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Nevada - 49 - 50 (Trump takes the EC votes)
North Carolina - 48 - 50 (Trump)
Pennsylvania - 50 - 48 (Harris)
Wisconsin - 50 - 48 (Harris)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 286
MAGA - 252

Kamala Harris wins the election.

The only reason I'm not responding is I don't want to jinx anything. My wife has warned me about 1,000 times since I predicted Clinton would win in 2016. She claims my hex got Trump elected.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The only reason I'm not responding is I don't want to jinx anything. My wife has warned me about 1,000 times since I predicted Clinton would win in 2016. She claims my hex got Trump elected.

Jinxes don’t exist, mate. Otherwise you and I would have reverse jinxed ourselves in to being billionaires by now.

We’either be wrong or right, so have at it! ;-)

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

The only reason I'm not responding is I don't want to jinx anything. My wife has warned me about 1,000 times since I predicted Clinton would win in 2016. She claims my hex got Trump elected.

Simple.
Just predict a Trump win.

 

[Blue Maverick]

On tv they are debating on if Taylor Swift will make an appearance, this woman says if she tells me to vote for Kamala I will otherwise I won’t vote! I mean how dumb are some people, one that they follow whatever a particular celebrity says and two that they can’t see what’s beofre them for themselves. If they get Trump it’s their own fucking fault, unfortunately the rest of us will have to suffer as well.

 

[kaz7]

On tv they are debating on if Taylor Swift will make an appearance, this woman says if she tells me to vote for Kamala I will otherwise I won’t vote! I mean how dumb are some people, one that they follow whatever a particular celebrity says and two that they can’t see what’s beofre them for themselves. If they get Trump it’s their own fucking fault, unfortunately the rest of us will have to suffer as well.

If taylor endorses kamala then she could win . Every country taylor goes to has a huge boost in the countries economies , talking billions , she has saved some countries from going bust. She has massive amount of influence over her fans

I think if she is going to turn up it for kamala today then i hope it is not too late

 

[The Future’s Blue!]

On tv they are debating on if Taylor Swift will make an appearance, this woman says if she tells me to vote for Kamala I will otherwise I won’t vote! I mean how dumb are some people, one that they follow whatever a particular celebrity says and two that they can’t see what’s beofre them for themselves. If they get Trump it’s their own fucking fault, unfortunately the rest of us will have to suffer as well.

If it’s the one off Sky, she also stated that they are strong, independent women who make their own mind’s up, yet can’t decide to vote unless somebody tells them to.

There was also a woman who said that because she was intelligent, she’s voting for Harris. But why say that you’re intelligent, surely they don’t have to telegraph stuff like that?

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

If taylor endorses kamala then she could win . Every country taylor goes to has a huge boost in the countries economies , talking billions , she has saved some countries from going bust. She has massive amount of influence over her fans

I think if she is going to turn up it for kamala today then i hope it is not too late

If US democracy comes down to a popularity contest between Taylor Swift and Elon Musk then that is not great, even if it gets the result you want.

 

[SebastianBlue]

THE INSTITUTIONS FAILED​

They didn’t hold during Trump’s first term. Don’t be fooled into a false sense of security.

Scholars and advocates for democracy who have tried to warn voters about the dangers posed by a second Donald Trump term are, to some extent, victims of their own success—or, rather, the perception of it. Having fought to defend the nation’s institutions during Trump’s first term, they now worry that Americans have become complacent about the risks of a potential second term.

“There’s this mythology that permeates that Trump didn’t damage institutions in the first term,” Amanda Carpenter, a former GOP staffer who now works for the civil-society group Protect Democracy, told me recently. “And I think that’s completely wrong.”

Indeed, institutions at nearly every level of American society failed during Trump’s first term, which is a big reason a second Trump term is even possible. The press, all three branches of the federal government, nongovernmental organizations such as the Republican Party, and the private sector all crumpled when confronted. The failures were of both personal leadership and systems. A reelected President Trump won’t just have figured out how to better fight a healthy system. He will face one that is already in dire condition.

The Institutions Failed

They didn’t hold during Trump’s first term. Don’t be fooled into a false sense of security.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

The community note has to be the funniest ever written.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Well, that's one way of looking at it.

My take, though, is that the institutions held, if barely. There are numerous in-built checks and balances in American democracy to guard against abuse of power. Four years ago the institutions did hold - and in spite of the 1/6 insurrection attempt - the power of the presidency was transferred.

On the other hand, I agree that we should not fall into a sense of security. Although the results of the 2020 election were respected and power was transferred, it was a narrow thing. Should Trump win in 2024, he'll so-weaken the system that in 2028, it's almost certain that Trump or his hand-picked successor will come to power regardless of election results.

I think we’ll find out with this election if he fatally wounded American institutions.

I do agree, though, that if he gets in again, and the institutions aren’t comprehensively killed in the process, the real power brokers in the MAGA movement will deal the death blow in Trump’s second term.