US Politics Thread

[SebastianBlue]

THE INSTITUTIONS FAILED​

They didn’t hold during Trump’s first term. Don’t be fooled into a false sense of security.

Scholars and advocates for democracy who have tried to warn voters about the dangers posed by a second Donald Trump term are, to some extent, victims of their own success—or, rather, the perception of it. Having fought to defend the nation’s institutions during Trump’s first term, they now worry that Americans have become complacent about the risks of a potential second term.

“There’s this mythology that permeates that Trump didn’t damage institutions in the first term,” Amanda Carpenter, a former GOP staffer who now works for the civil-society group Protect Democracy, told me recently. “And I think that’s completely wrong.”

Indeed, institutions at nearly every level of American society failed during Trump’s first term, which is a big reason a second Trump term is even possible. The press, all three branches of the federal government, nongovernmental organizations such as the Republican Party, and the private sector all crumpled when confronted. The failures were of both personal leadership and systems. A reelected President Trump won’t just have figured out how to better fight a healthy system. He will face one that is already in dire condition.

The Institutions Failed

They didn’t hold during Trump’s first term. Don’t be fooled into a false sense of security.

www.theatlantic.com

 

[Gaylord du Bois]

The community note has to be the funniest ever written.

 

[SebastianBlue]

Well, that's one way of looking at it.

My take, though, is that the institutions held, if barely. There are numerous in-built checks and balances in American democracy to guard against abuse of power. Four years ago the institutions did hold - and in spite of the 1/6 insurrection attempt - the power of the presidency was transferred.

On the other hand, I agree that we should not fall into a sense of security. Although the results of the 2020 election were respected and power was transferred, it was a narrow thing. Should Trump win in 2024, he'll so-weaken the system that in 2028, it's almost certain that Trump or his hand-picked successor will come to power regardless of election results.

I think we’ll find out with this election if he fatally wounded American institutions.

I do agree, though, that if he gets in again, and the institutions aren’t comprehensively killed in the process, the real power brokers in the MAGA movement will deal the death blow in Trump’s second term.

 

[chesterbells]

So, just thinking about tomorrow night and after, and who to watch/listen/follow the election with?
Any network recommendations or suggestions?

 

[west didsblue]

If US democracy comes down to a popularity contest between Taylor Swift and Elon Musk then that is not great, even if it gets the result you want.

Better than it being down to people like the bloke on the news tonight who absolutely detests Trump but will vote for him anyway because Socialism.

 

[mancity2012_eamo]

If US democracy comes down to a popularity contest between Taylor Swift and Elon Musk then that is not great, even if it gets the result you want.

I hope it works.
However, I tend to agree with you here.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Kicking off Election Day Eve festivities…

Reply to this post with your prediction of the final Harris and Trump vote (rounded) shares in the battleground states.

My prediction:

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump)
Georgia - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Michigan - 50 - 49 (Harris)
Nevada - 49 - 50 (Trump takes the EC votes)
North Carolina - 48 - 50 (Trump)
Pennsylvania - 50 - 48 (Harris)
Wisconsin - 50 - 48 (Harris)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 286
MAGA - 252

Kamala Harris wins the election.

I almost don’t want to tempt fate but I’ve been reading too much polling data to not at least try and guess…

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump +1)
Georgia - 51 - 48 (Harris +3)
Michigan - 53 - 47 (Harris +6)
Nevada - 51 - 49 (Harris +2)
North Carolina - 46 - 52 (Trump + 6)
Pennsylvania - 54 - 46 (Harris +8)
Wisconsin - 52 - 48 (Harris +4)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 292
MAGA - 246

I basically think the rust belt is going to end up not being as close as people think - particularly PA. And North Carolina always surprises me with how red it is. My lowest confidence is in Georgia, really can’t tell for the life of me what’s going on there.

 

[SebastianBlue]

I almost don’t want to tempt fate but I’ve been reading too much polling data to not at least try and guess…

State - Harris % - Trump %
Arizona - 49 - 50 (Trump +1)
Georgia - 51 - 48 (Harris +3)
Michigan - 53 - 47 (Harris +6)
Nevada - 51 - 49 (Harris +2)
North Carolina - 46 - 52 (Trump + 6)
Pennsylvania - 54 - 46 (Harris +8)
Wisconsin - 52 - 48 (Harris +4)

Electoral College Outcome:
Democrats - 292
MAGA - 246

I basically think the rust belt is going to end up not being as close as people think - particularly PA. And North Carolina always surprises me with how red it is. My lowest confidence is in Georgia, really can’t tell for the life of me what’s going on there.

Even more optimistic than me, I like it!

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

If US democracy comes down to a popularity contest between Taylor Swift and Elon Musk then that is not great, even if it gets the result you want.

Yeah, but it doesn't come down to that, does it?

It's an inane straw man, unless you have some data that says the majority of those voting for Harris or Trump say "it's because Taylor/Elon told me to."

But, sure, another reed to beat stupid Americans with, why not?