US Politics Thread

BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
Where is the USA headed?

A radical right politician - Trump (or if he's ineligible) DeSantis - is going to be our next President. This is a slam dunk certainty IMO.

The economy is going to persuade undecideds to vote in massive favor of Republicans; Republicans will gain control of the Senate and the House as well. It's inevitable.

It's going to be a decade or two or perhaps more to recover from this shit storm.

Democrats have been thoroughly outplayed; to the extent that a radical party promulgating position after position that is unfavorable to most Americans is on the cusp of ceasing all governmental power (and this will occur without a coup - executive, legislative and judicial are all going to be Republican within the next few years).
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This is my take - I might be (and I hope that I am) wrong. But I'll repost this early prediction once Trump/DeSantis wins.
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How about a Democratic ticket of Amy Klobuchar for Pres. and Cory Booker for V.P.? That would do for me.
 
wow - turns out that you can make improvements to the border and get money from Mexico to help pay for it. It seems that negotiation and not bumbling round like an impotent bully threatening and posturing and applying a fix from the 1970's technology - if you turn everything off and listen very carefully you can hear Trumps piss boiling this side of the Atlantic

abcnews.go.com

First on ABC: Mexico to pay $1.5 billion for US border security and processing, source says

The collaboration on the border signifies something of a reset between Mexico and the U.S.
abcnews.go.com abcnews.go.com
 
AliBobbyJ said:
How about a Democratic ticket of Amy Klobuchar for Pres. and Cory Booker for V.P.? That would do for me.
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Won't happen.

DNC will stay loyal to the career guy currently in situ. Over an actual candidate that would win and secure house majorities with it.
 
AliBobbyJ said:
How about a Democratic ticket of Amy Klobuchar for Pres. and Cory Booker for V.P.? That would do for me.
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That's an attractive pair for sure. And for sure, there's no shortage of very attractive centrist candidates whom I'd love to see in office.

But the reason I think that the next US President will be a far right leaning Republican isn't that Biden per se is at fault - rather, it's that the right wants a far right candidate.

And the undecideds, it seems to me, couldn't give a flip about abortion or guns or the fact that Trump is guilty of seditious conspiracy - they're all about the bottom line - the economy.

Trump is an abhorrent figure - but that's old news. If you were undecided about Trump in 2016 - then what's changed about him? He's bragged on live audio about grabbing a woman's pussy. That didn't phase the undecideds in 2016.

Do you think that 1/6 will change the undecided's opinion? - I don't, not at all. It's just more of the same - Trump is an immoral criminal. Old news.

IMO, Trump isn't our next President only if one of the following occurs: 1) He experiences a severe health issue or dies (I doubt this - looking at his close family members, they mostly seem to be very long lived - genetics suggest that Trump will live to 90+); 2) He decides not to run (unlikely); 3) He's convicted of a felony and is thus ineligible to run (maybe this happens); 4) Inflation is brought under control and American's are upbeat about the economy (I think that this is very unlikely as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of stopping any time soon).

Biden prevailed narrowly in 2020 because, I think, that anti-Trump sentiment was high. Arguably anti-Trump sentiment is similar going into 2024 - but this time, the economy is going to be terrible.

Even if 1, 2 or 3 occurs, although it won't be Trump as President, it'll be DeSantis or some other far-right clone; only 4 will change this outcome, IMO. I hope I'm wrong - but that's what I think.
 
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BlueMoonAcrossThePond said:
That's an attractive pair for sure. And for sure, there's no shortage of very attractive centrist candidates whom I'd love to see in office.

But the reason I think that the next US President will be a far right leaning Republican isn't that Biden per se is at fault - rather, it's that the right wants a far right candidate.

And the undecideds, it seems to me, couldn't give a flip about abortion or guns or the fact that Trump is guilty of seditious conspiracy - they're all about the bottom line - the economy.

Trump is an abhorrent figure - but that's old news. If you were undecided about Trump in 2016 - then what's changed about him? He's bragged on live audio about grabbing a woman's pussy. That didn't phase the undecideds in 2016.

Do you think that 1/6 will change the undecided's opinion? - I don't, not at all. It's just more of the same - Trump is an immoral criminal. Old news.

IMO, Trump isn't our next President only if one of the following occurs: 1) He experiences a severe health issue or dies (I doubt this - looking at his close family members, they mostly seem to be very long lived - genetics suggest that Trump will live to 90+); 2) He decides not to run (unlikely); 3) He's convicted of a felony and is thus ineligible to run (maybe this happens); 4) Inflation is brought under control and American's are upbeat about the economy (I think that this is very unlikely as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of stopping any time soon).

Biden prevailed narrowly in 2020 because, I think, that anti-Trump sentiment was high. Arguably anti-Trump sentiment is similar going into 2024 - but this time, the economy is going to be terrible.

Even if 1, 2 or 3 occurs, although it won't be Trump as President, it'll be DeSantis or some other far-right clone; only 4 will change this outcome, IMO. I hope I'm wrong - but that's what I think.
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Biden didn't prevail narrowly though. He won very comfortably
 
Another fascinating video from Amanpour - this time, about the thoughts of a former Republican staffer, about why he was complicit in supporting Trump, about why he became a never-Trumper, and about careerists such as Lindsey Gram and others who privately have confessed that they detest Trump but why, publicly, they're among his biggest supporters, and about the near impossibility of convincing someone to change their political views.

Good stuff - well worth the watch.
 
A few thousand votes in key swing states is common thats why they are called that. He won the electoral college very comfortably, I'm not under any misconceptions
 
Uncle Wally One Ball said:
A few thousand votes in key swing states is common thats why they are called that. He won the electoral college very comfortably, I'm not under any misconceptions
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If, by comfortably won, you mean that about 50,000 votes for Trump instead of Biden in key states in a nation with an aggregate population of 330 million would have decided the outcome otherwise qualifies as a comfortable win- well, then, you and I have a basic disagreement about what it means to comfortably win an election.

www.npr.org

Narrow Wins In These Key States Powered Biden To The Presidency

Joe Biden topped President Trump by nearly 7 million votes, and 74 votes in the Electoral College, but his victory really was stitched together with narrow margins in key states.
www.npr.org www.npr.org

The electoral college system is flawed, as are, other aspects of American governance (gerrymandering, existence of the Senate, life terms for Supreme Court justices, closed primaries, and so on).

The Republican party has pushed/advanced a lot of these unfair advantages - and some of the unfair advantages are built into the US Constitution because such concessions were politically necessary, centuries ago.

The USA badly needs another constitutional convention to correct and update the US constitution - this isn't going to happen in my lifetime - and should a constitutional convention occur under the wrong circumstances - all manner of ill might result.
 
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