US Politics Thread

[Gareth Barry Conlon]

Won't happen.

DNC will stay loyal to the career guy currently in situ. Over an actual candidate that would win and secure house majorities with it.

Not sure on that - Biden looks old and dodery. If he is polling the same at crunch time then a challenger could easy take the nomination.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

LOL!!

What?? Hillary Clinton has a better chance than Klobuchar!

And Hilary is another candidate whom I'd actually very much like to see in office. Hilary has a penchant for committing small gaffes and then trying to justify them. And she comes across as shrill. But her heart - it seems to me - is very much in the right place.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Not sure on that - Biden looks old and dodery. If he is polling the same at crunch time then a challenger could easy take the nomination.

Biden's speech impediment makes him look this way in part - and in part - Biden is simply clumsy in front of camera. IMO this isn't due to old age - Biden has always been this way.

Democrats are going to lose big in upcoming elections because inflation is out of control - there's nothing to be done about this. It doesn't matter who runs.

(And yes, inflation has nothing to do with Biden and Democrats - but voters are going to take it out on the ruling party nonetheless).

 

[Bigga]

And Hilary is another candidate whom I'd actually very much like to see in office. Hilary has a penchant for committing small gaffes and then trying to justify them. And she comes across as shrill. But her heart - it seems to me - is very much in the right place.

Mate, Clinton is a revisionist who doesn't accept her faults.

Have you ever heard her be humble about her mistakes?

She's a warhawk, too!

And, as an aside, her and her husband set the US on this current pathway that she's, conveniently, sidestepped.

Time for fresh blood or a new direction which the DNC will actively fight against.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Frontline has covered both US candidates for President in great detail at least since 2016. The 2016 piece was titled "the choice."

At any rate, this in depth documentary, while long, is extremely worthwhile viewing.

For Trump - it covers his boyhood years, his bringing up and early life. It shows in detail how his upbringing informs and influences his beliefs and behaviors.

For Hilary - exactly the same.

Trump emerges as an abused figure, who could never do enough to please his father; but that winning is important above all else.

Hilary emerges as an intelligent - at first very charismatic figure - who later sacrifices her potential to advance the career of her husband.

What's most memorable to me from this documentary - is that Hilary honestly seems to deeply care for the welfare of fellow humans and, though flawed - and conflicted by political self interest at times and at times by a strange proclivity to deflect criticism even when not in the wrong - in spite of this flaw, Hilary emerges as a very likeable figure.

I came away from this documentary with a deeper understanding about Trump's self-serving behavior. As well as a new admiration and sympathy for Hilary - Hilary deserved a far better husband than unfaithful Bill.

How many woman suffer from such marriages? - Malinda Gates springs to mind as another figure whom I greatly admire, wedded to a deeply unfaithful husband. I'm glad to see that Malinda has moved on; perhaps Hilary should have done the same, a long time ago.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

The Choice documentary for 2020. Also compelling. I learned a lot about Biden. From 2016's "The Choice" I already know about Trump - probably not much new on Trump.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Mate, Clinton is a revisionist who doesn't accept her faults.

Have you ever heard her be humble about her mistakes?

She's a warhawk, too!

And, as an aside, her and her husband set the US on this current pathway that she's, conveniently, sidestepped.

Time for fresh blood or a new direction which the DNC will actively fight against.

'Fresh' blood?

Didn't you have a hard on for 78 year old Bernie Sanders at the last election?

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

That's an attractive pair for sure. And for sure, there's no shortage of very attractive centrist candidates whom I'd love to see in office.

But the reason I think that the next US President will be a far right leaning Republican isn't that Biden per se is at fault - rather, it's that the right wants a far right candidate.

And the undecideds, it seems to me, couldn't give a flip about abortion or guns or the fact that Trump is guilty of seditious conspiracy - they're all about the bottom line - the economy.

Trump is an abhorrent figure - but that's old news. If you were undecided about Trump in 2016 - then what's changed about him? He's bragged on live audio about grabbing a woman's pussy. That didn't phase the undecideds in 2016.

Do you think that 1/6 will change the undecided's opinion? - I don't, not at all. It's just more of the same - Trump is an immoral criminal. Old news.

IMO, Trump isn't our next President only if one of the following occurs: 1) He experiences a severe health issue or dies (I doubt this - looking at his close family members, they mostly seem to be very long lived - genetics suggest that Trump will live to 90+); 2) He decides not to run (unlikely); 3) He's convicted of a felony and is thus ineligible to run (maybe this happens); 4) Inflation is brought under control and American's are upbeat about the economy (I think that this is very unlikely as the war in Ukraine shows no sign of stopping any time soon).

Biden prevailed narrowly in 2020 because, I think, that anti-Trump sentiment was high. Arguably anti-Trump sentiment is similar going into 2024 - but this time, the economy is going to be terrible.

Even if 1, 2 or 3 occurs, although it won't be Trump as President, it'll be DeSantis or some other far-right clone; only 4 will change this outcome, IMO. I hope I'm wrong - but that's what I think.

1) If you were right, Trump's support wouldn't be dropping within the GOP, but it is. Increasingly younger conservatives want someone new.
2) There's still more to come with 1/6. Nixon's support didn't really start eroding until the very end of Watergate.
3) National polls say Trump still loses to Biden as of last week, despite the economy.
4) Biden didn't "narrowly prevail" in 2020. He won comfortably. The electoral college was closer but every single usually-red red state that matters (TX, GA, FL, NC, NV and AZ) has skewed bluer via in-migration since the pandemic started, a point I've made about 57 times which is directly connected to the conservative social policy changes currently red legislative majorities or in some cases governors are desperately trying to push through.
5) If we are in recession now or will be later in 2022, you think we'll still be in one in 2024? Ukraine is A reason for inflation currently but not THE reason. I actually think Biden is going to be able to take credit for pulling the US OUT of recession by then.

 

[Bigga]

'Fresh' blood?

Didn't you have a hard on for 78 year old Bernie Sanders at the last election?

Funnily enough, "fresh blood" where I come from is a new approach or way of thinking. Not sure what that has to do with age, but maybe you'll correct me?

What does it mean where you're from?

Oh and Sanders, even at this age, has an incredibly sharp mind.

Maybe we could compare him to...?

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

1) If you were right, Trump's support wouldn't be dropping within the GOP, but it is. Increasingly younger conservatives want someone new.
2) There's still more to come with 1/6. Nixon's support didn't really start eroding until the very end of Watergate.
3) National polls say Trump still loses to Biden as of last week, despite the economy.
4) Biden didn't "narrowly prevail" in 2020. He won comfortably. The electoral college was closer but every single usually-red red state that matters (TX, GA, FL, NC, NV and AZ) has skewed bluer via in-migration since the pandemic started, a point I've made about 57 times which is directly connected to the conservative social policy changes currently red legislative majorities or in some cases governors are desperately trying to push through.
5) If we are in recession now or will be later in 2022, you think we'll still be in one in 2024? Ukraine is A reason for inflation currently but not THE reason. I actually think Biden is going to be able to take credit for pulling the US OUT of recession by then.

Hope you're right Fog.

As a reality check on my positions, I like to look at betting odds to see whether they align with what I think. In this case, the most recent bookmaker odds I've found all seem to place Trump as favorite, even with all that's transpired, e.g., https://www.gambling.com/news/betting-opens-on-joe-biden-completing-full-term-of-presidency-2369600.