Interesting. I think it's hard to predict Democrat prospects. You are surely right that they will cop some flak for the economy. But how much? They don't have a runner at all at the moment, but that merely leaves them time to find one. Whereas Trump is going to start hogging the floor now, and will have to avoid this turning into more risk of acquiring unpopularity. Can he pull the same mind tricks as last time, now he's actually been beaten very publicly? And what about the anyone but Trumps? Even in the Rs, he's only polling 50%. How many of the rest would actually deny him their support this time? There are those who would outright work against him all the way through. How much better organised would they be, compared to last? His wins left people blindsided and scattered to the wind. He won't get that this time. And also we'll have to wait and see how they can spin Russia, and other issues this time. Abortion rights were broadly supported by a sizeable majority of Americans. Hardly a niche Liberal issue.
My honest impression is that many will say, he's already had his chance. He's yesterday's man. Why try the same thing again?
Just take one hypothetical exchange. "Build the wall? How much did you actually get done, Donny?"
That's the Don thing in a nutshell. Half of us know there is no chance of him ever delivering. Others see him as useful, because he can persuade onlookers. And onlookers, Americans, others, they want to believe. If you're both up there promising the future, then, who do you listen to? Sure, people might fancy the old wasn't great and why wouldn't they treat the new guy exactly as they did, it doesn't add up to much that needs thinking about? This time, the game ought to be different. He will have a much harder job defending his believability on a lowest common denominator basis this time.