US Politics Thread

[ChicagoBlue]

 

[jim tolmies perm]

What weekend poll numbers? Trump is leading in every single major poll.

The economy is a big thing. The average voter seems to definitely feel that they had a higher disposable income in 2019 than they do now under the Biden administration. Trump's economy pre-pandemic is one of the huge things that's going for him as he is seen as the "proven" one.

There was one particular poll , important imo, that put confidence in the economy up from 20 to 30%
It's the beginning of a turnaround.
35% of GOP primary voter will not support Trump . These people are clearly not showing in national polls even those where Biden is 3/4 points ahead.
This fact alone must be ringing alarm bells in Trumpland

 

[ChicagoBlue]

Yep, that’s right! They are NOT the same!

 

[ChicagoBlue]

We have Trump, who openly mocked a disabled reporter who tried to engage him and we have Biden…




MAGAts see this and call Biden a pedo for hugging a boy and kissing him on the head while trying to soothe his pain, telling him “it’ll be OK, I promise.”

Hmmmm…tough choice, NOT!

 

[mexico1970]

We have Trump, who openly mocked a disabled reporter who tried to engage him and we have Biden…




MAGAts see this and call Biden a pedo for hugging a boy and kissing him on the head while trying to soothe his pain, telling him “it’ll be OK, I promise.”

Hmmmm…tough choice, NOT!

Anyone seeing the bad in that has to be a wrong 'un themselves. State of politics the world over is in the gutter.

 

[KS55]

There was one particular poll , important imo, that put confidence in the economy up from 20 to 30%
It's the beginning of a turnaround.
35% of GOP primary voter will not support Trump . These people are clearly not showing in national polls even those where Biden is 3/4 points ahead.
This fact alone must be ringing alarm bells in Trumpland

Biden’s term has been overshadowed by post covid inflation which was a world wide phenomenon. In fact Biden has performed well economically and various measures such as the Infrastructure Act and the Chips act have produced low unemployment, high growth and rising wages.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

The biggest issues concerning the American public currently is the economy and the border situation, both of which favors Trump heavily.

For Trump to win the general election, he doesn't necessarily need any extra voters to beat Trump. He just needs some of Biden's voters to stay home and not vote and that's looking like the case with the how indifferent some Biden voters have become with his policies.

The biggest issue is the perception versus reality gap and the way the media are reporting the 'facts'. Conflict sells news, and media companies need to pay 'the man'.

 

[BlueMoonAcrossThePond]

Food for thought. @FogBlueInSanFran and @SWP's back point that polls are way off is well taken.

 

[Scottyboi]

Anyone seeing the bad in that has to be a wrong 'un themselves. State of politics the world over is in the gutter.

Bloody hell why you up so late haha and yeah people who see anything weird in stuff like that are the one's I'd be concerned about not Biden.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

Looks like a bit of a shit show to be honest. The supposed incumbent has now lost two primaries, can you imagine the furore if that happened to Biden? Anyway, I've summarised polling performance below. Polls are taken from 538, results from NYT. If there were only two polls in a state I didn't average them but give a range.

Summary:
Trump polling underestimated in two states
Polling broadly accurate in two states
Trump polling overestimated in eight states

The average discrepancy for the evening is Trump overestimated by 10 points (highest variance from polling was 34pp). The median margin discrepancy is 10.5.

_____

In no particular order:

Alabama (polling): Trump 76-87 - 12-16 Haley (Margin 60-75) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Alabama (result): Trump 83 - 13 Haley (Margin 70) - accurate

Minnesota (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64) - only one poll done
Minnesota (result): Trump 69 - 29 Haley (Margin 40) - Trump overestimated by 24

North Carolina (polling): Trump 69 - 23 Haley (Margin 46)
North Carolina (result): Trump 74 - 23 Haley (Margin 51) - Trump underestimated by 5

Oklahoma (polling): Trump 88 - 11 Haley (Margin 77)
Oklahoma (result): Trump 82 - 16 Haley (Margin 66) - Trump overestimated by 11

Tennessee (polling): Trump 84 - 15 Haley (Margin 69)
Tennessee (result): Trump 77 - 19 Haley (Margin 58) - Trump overestimated by 11

Vermont (polling): Trump 61 - 31 Haley (Margin 30) - only one poll done
Vermont (result): Trump 46 - 50 Haley (Margin -4) - Trump overestimated by 34

Virginia (polling): Trump 66 - 17 Haley (Margin 49)
Virginia (result): Trump 63 - 35 Haley (Margin 28) - Trump overestimated by 21

Arkansas (polling): No recent polling
Arkansas (result): Trump 77 - 18 Haley (Margin 59)

Texas (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64)
Texas (result): Trump 78 - 17 Haley (Margin 59) - Trump overestimated by 5

Massachusetts (polling): Trump 67 - 29 Haley (Margin 37)
Massachusetts (result): Trump 60 - 37 Haley (Margin 23) - Trump overestimated by 14

Maine (polling): Trump 66-77 - 19-24 Haley (Margin 42-53) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Maine (result): Trump 72 - 26 Haley (Margin 46) - accurate

Colorado (polling): No recent polling
Colorado (result): Trump 63 - 34 Haley (Margin 29)

Utah (polling): Trump 49 - 22 Haley (Margin 27) - Note this poll was done in Jan and included DeSantis on 13
Utah (result): Trump 58 - 41 Haley (Margin 17) - This one's not done counting but Trump overestimated by 10

California (polling): Trump 76 - 18 Haley (Margin 58)
California (result): Trump 78 - 18 Haley (Margin 60) - Trump underestimated by 2

 

[Scottyboi]

Into her Emily.

 

[BobKowalski]

Looks like a bit of a shit show to be honest. The supposed incumbent has now lost two primaries, can you imagine the furore if that happened to Biden? Anyway, I've summarised polling performance below. Polls are taken from 538, results from NYT. If there were only two polls in a state I didn't average them but give a range.

Summary:
Trump polling underestimated in two states
Polling broadly accurate in two states
Trump polling overestimated in eight states

The average discrepancy for the evening is Trump overestimated by 10 points (highest variance from polling was 34pp). The median margin discrepancy is 10.5.

_____

In no particular order:

Alabama (polling): Trump 76-87 - 12-16 Haley (Margin 60-75) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Alabama (result): Trump 83 - 13 Haley (Margin 70) - accurate

Minnesota (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64) - only one poll done
Minnesota (result): Trump 69 - 29 Haley (Margin 40) - Trump overestimated by 24

North Carolina (polling): Trump 69 - 23 Haley (Margin 46)
North Carolina (result): Trump 74 - 23 Haley (Margin 51) - Trump underestimated by 5

Oklahoma (polling): Trump 88 - 11 Haley (Margin 77)
Oklahoma (result): Trump 82 - 16 Haley (Margin 66) - Trump overestimated by 11

Tennessee (polling): Trump 84 - 15 Haley (Margin 69)
Tennessee (result): Trump 77 - 19 Haley (Margin 58) - Trump overestimated by 11

Vermont (polling): Trump 61 - 31 Haley (Margin 30) - only one poll done
Vermont (result): Trump 46 - 50 Haley (Margin -4) - Trump overestimated by 34

Virginia (polling): Trump 66 - 17 Haley (Margin 49)
Virginia (result): Trump 63 - 35 Haley (Margin 28) - Trump overestimated by 21

Arkansas (polling): No recent polling
Arkansas (result): Trump 77 - 18 Haley (Margin 59)

Texas (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64)
Texas (result): Trump 78 - 17 Haley (Margin 59) - Trump overestimated by 5

Massachusetts (polling): Trump 67 - 29 Haley (Margin 37)
Massachusetts (result): Trump 60 - 37 Haley (Margin 23) - Trump overestimated by 14

Maine (polling): Trump 66-77 - 19-24 Haley (Margin 42-53) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Maine (result): Trump 72 - 26 Haley (Margin 46) - accurate

Colorado (polling): No recent polling
Colorado (result): Trump 63 - 34 Haley (Margin 29)

Utah (polling): Trump 49 - 22 Haley (Margin 27) - Note this poll was done in Jan and included DeSantis on 13
Utah (result): Trump 58 - 41 Haley (Margin 17) - This one's not done counting but Trump overestimated by 10

California (polling): Trump 76 - 18 Haley (Margin 58)
California (result): Trump 78 - 18 Haley (Margin 60) - Trump underestimated by 2

Ever since the mid-terms and the red wave that never came, the polling has been off.

 

[bluethrunthru]

Into her Emily.

mad bad and dangerous to know

 

[TinFoilHat]

Hayley gone.

She'll make a speech 15:00 our time.

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

Hayley gone.

She'll make a speech 15:00 our time.

Inevitable.

 

[SkyBlueFlux]

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

 

[TinFoilHat]

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

I think she will.

She'll do a speech which everyone will say "Why didn't you say that months ago"

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.

I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.

But she will.

 

[jim tolmies perm]

mad bad and dangerous to kno

Into her Emily.

Piece of scum representing scum

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I think she will.

She'll do a speech which everyone will say "Why didn't you say that months ago"

She was clinging on in the hope that Shitgibbon would be on the way to being convicted on one of the many felony charges against him. Unfortunately she wasn't banking on a corrupt Supreme Court, or the seeming toothless Judiciary going out of their way to appear neutral when in fact they are letting ACB get away with ruling in Trump's favour at every turn.