This gives Trump access to the GOP campaign coffers (what's left of them)... great. He can fritter those away on his legal bills.
I know I'm asking for too much... but I just hope she doesn't endorse Trump. She'd get way more respect if she went out in flames. Very rock and roll.
I bet Emily secretly pissed herself laughing at that.Piece of scum representing scum
Harris V Hayley she'd probably win.If she’s looking beyond Trump and prospects for 2028 onward it makes sense not to endorse and market herself as the one who didn’t embrace the Trump stink.
I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
Oh do fuck off you myopic troll.That's western fallacy...
Chinese government or CCP, they are the most moderate, or compromise role in the country.
The logic is different. Because you don't need to fight for an election, your job is to keep the country going foward.
So you need to unite all kinds of people. You must stay in the middle.
If you are far(extreme) right or left , they (the government) will make you shut up. You will disappear from public view.
And in our Chinese view, that's good, they should do it like that. If the government don't do their job, public will feel angry.
But west media call it "censorship" "people missing", that's BS.
Well I am totally surprised by this.Haley predicted to win Vermont according to NYT but still only 14% of votes in.
Trump again underperforming polling almost everywhere but still projected to win NC and Virginia.
Backwards, sister fiddling redneck scum aren’t they.Step anywhere outside the big/medium cities here and views like this are probably the norm.
If she’s looking beyond Trump and prospects for 2028 onward it makes sense not to endorse and market herself as the one who didn’t embrace the Trump stink.
I wouldn’t bet on it, though.
I mean most polls didn't account for the fact that many of these primaries were "open" and allowed unaffiliated independents and democrats to vote in them, such as Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts and so on, which explains the discrepancy here.Looks like a bit of a shit show to be honest. The supposed incumbent has now lost two primaries, can you imagine the furore if that happened to Biden? Anyway, I've summarised polling performance below. Polls are taken from 538, results from NYT. If there were only two polls in a state I didn't average them but give a range.
Summary:
Trump polling underestimated in two states
Polling broadly accurate in two states
Trump polling overestimated in eight states
The average discrepancy for the evening is Trump overestimated by 10 points (highest variance from polling was 34pp). The median margin discrepancy is 10.5.
_____
In no particular order:
Alabama (polling): Trump 76-87 - 12-16 Haley (Margin 60-75) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Alabama (result): Trump 83 - 13 Haley (Margin 70) - accurate
Minnesota (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64) - only one poll done
Minnesota (result): Trump 69 - 29 Haley (Margin 40) - Trump overestimated by 24
North Carolina (polling): Trump 69 - 23 Haley (Margin 46)
North Carolina (result): Trump 74 - 23 Haley (Margin 51) - Trump underestimated by 5
Oklahoma (polling): Trump 88 - 11 Haley (Margin 77)
Oklahoma (result): Trump 82 - 16 Haley (Margin 66) - Trump overestimated by 11
Tennessee (polling): Trump 84 - 15 Haley (Margin 69)
Tennessee (result): Trump 77 - 19 Haley (Margin 58) - Trump overestimated by 11
Vermont (polling): Trump 61 - 31 Haley (Margin 30) - only one poll done
Vermont (result): Trump 46 - 50 Haley (Margin -4) - Trump overestimated by 34
Virginia (polling): Trump 66 - 17 Haley (Margin 49)
Virginia (result): Trump 63 - 35 Haley (Margin 28) - Trump overestimated by 21
Arkansas (polling): No recent polling
Arkansas (result): Trump 77 - 18 Haley (Margin 59)
Texas (polling): Trump 79 - 15 Haley (Margin 64)
Texas (result): Trump 78 - 17 Haley (Margin 59) - Trump overestimated by 5
Massachusetts (polling): Trump 67 - 29 Haley (Margin 37)
Massachusetts (result): Trump 60 - 37 Haley (Margin 23) - Trump overestimated by 14
Maine (polling): Trump 66-77 - 19-24 Haley (Margin 42-53) - only two polls done so not averaging them
Maine (result): Trump 72 - 26 Haley (Margin 46) - accurate
Colorado (polling): No recent polling
Colorado (result): Trump 63 - 34 Haley (Margin 29)
Utah (polling): Trump 49 - 22 Haley (Margin 27) - Note this poll was done in Jan and included DeSantis on 13
Utah (result): Trump 58 - 41 Haley (Margin 17) - This one's not done counting but Trump overestimated by 10
California (polling): Trump 76 - 18 Haley (Margin 58)
California (result): Trump 78 - 18 Haley (Margin 60) - Trump underestimated by 2
Course it does Cletus.I mean most polls didn't account for the fact that many of these primaries were "open" and allowed unaffiliated independents and democrats to vote in them, such as Vermont, Virginia, Massachusetts and so on, which explains the discrepancy here.
Interesting if true.Hayley expected Not to endorse Shitgibbon.
She didn't endorse him. However she said he'd have to "win her vote"Interesting if true.
You and @SkyBlueFlux have been on this from the get-go — thank you. I might argue that the dwindling response rate which winnows down to the “statistical weirdos” is evidence of outrage fatigue. I suspect — though I have no evidence admittedly — that a lot of Americans are so tired of argument and division and are gradually realiz(s)ing how unproductive it is, and that an increasing number of traditional GOP types are blaming Trump (or embarrassed by him) and disengaging from the process. Biden’s base may face similar erosion but not nearly as meaningful as Trump’s.
And, the use of the telephone for polling is antiquated and has become a self-selection bias.I'll be honest, I don't really know the reason the polls are out, all I can say is that they just observably are in most instances. Crucially they are out in swing states - Virginia, Minnesota and Michigan have all seen big polling errors - North Carolina bucks the trend. There are plenty of theories out there as to why that is, but it's ultimately all speculation.
@Tyler from Ohio mentioned on the previous page that a lot of these primaries were open - which is true and that will have some impact. But you necessarily have to square that off with the Democrat side of the primary. The confusing bit is you're seeing almost the exact opposite pattern with Biden - he's being underestimated by polling. If there was a really substantial amount of code-switching going on, you would expect to see every vote for Haley is a vote lost for Biden. But this isn't really happening on any substantial or visible scale. In fact the opposite is happening!
I think the reductionist view is that polling in such a polarised environment is fundamentally really hard to do and data gets skewed by the people who are psychologically motivated to be more vocal about their support. We know it as the shy Tory effect. It's the best guess I have.
Polling via telephone in the age of the mobile just doesn't work. The average switched on adult screens all calls and picks up selectively. FOCs will be far more likely to take the call and also the intellectually challenged....And, the use of the telephone for polling is antiquated and has become a self-selection bias.
I am being “polled” multiple times DAILY via telephone and hit DELETE AND REPORT JUNK every time. If I was an old Conservative Republican with a landline, I’d pick up the phone and I might WANT to tell you how I feel, because I have grievances I want to tell you all about!