US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[Robanompivenov]

My prediction

 

[SebastianBlue]

Or that the folk who have staked over £130 Million on Trump to get the gig are convinced they are on a winner. I mean there's now over 150% to be made on every £1 backing Kamalla. It does seem a steal going off folk saying she'll win in a landslide.

Is it possible that the **** could take another 5 - 10 Million votes to go with the 75 Million he took in 2020, That's how I'm looking at it. I mean it just means you now have 85 Million fuckin Lunatics compared to 75.

That does not contradict my post in any way. ;-)

 

[AliBobbyJ]

After the QPR match in 2012 I ended up in a pub off Deansgate with the day's highlights on TV. Up came the dismayed faces of the rags as they learned City had won and when we saw the old pisscan appear I said or probably yelled "Sod off Ferguson, your day is done." This time tomorrow it will the same for Trump.
"SOD OFF YOU ORANGE ****. "

 

[Trevor Morley's Tache]

I offer you this. My favourite comment so far...

 

[Plays By Sense Of Smell]

Is it just me that can hear Michael Buffer whilst reading those results

Trump looks to have flattened Harris and is about to go for the pin, when the lights go out, and there’s an eerie ‘DONNNGG!’

A coffin lid opens and a seemingly invincible Biden rises to lay the smack down on trump’s candy ass…

 

[Johnny Mars Bar]

I really hope so - but the betting on Betfair has been shortening for Trump during the morning. 1.61 now for Trump and 2.6 for Harris - that is a big margin in a 2-horse race

Others have said that the betting is skewed - but money is clearly going on Trump and people don't normally actively throw money away

I wish I had enough confidence in what people say - could make good profit on Harris (if she wins)

The only thing betting markets tell you about is the betting markets.

Having said that I still think the fat old bastard is going win, I always have.

 

[bluenova]

I really hope so - but the betting on Betfair has been shortening for Trump during the morning. 1.61 now for Trump and 2.6 for Harris - that is a big margin in a 2-horse race

Others have said that the betting is skewed - but money is clearly going on Trump and people don't normally actively throw money away

I wish I had enough confidence in what people say - could make good profit on Harris (if she wins)

Political betting is a bit odd. I won quite big on Trump in 2020, because he was still hot favourite even after it was clear he wasn't going to win (it didn't stop him declaring victory a few hours later). Harris is definitely the value bet now, as she's almost certainly got a better chance than the polls predict, but that still means you're risking money. If you do make a small bet, then one way to look at it, is that, if things are genuinely close, then at some point the results coming in will reflect that, and the odds will get closer, letting you cash out. Never any guarantees though.

There's definitely an element of wishful thinking on both sides. The betting markets are strongly suggesting the polls are pro-Harris. But I've also heard so many people who seem to be projecting the "it can't be real that Trump is going to get in again after everything", and assuming the polls are actually pro-Trump.

Ultimately, there's a lot of evidence to support either hypothesis, that realistically we haven't a clue - but what I can confidently predict is that we'll get a lot of "See I told you it was going to be a boy" gloating after the election, on what's essentially a 50/50 guess.

 

[Gabriel]

If Harris loses the race, one does wonder what it means for the likelihood of a woman becoming president via election. The Democratic Party will then have run two candidates from a party position of incumbency and lost both times, while the Republican Party appears to have adopted an ever more masculine image. Should Harris lose, even if winning the popular vote like Hilary Clinton, then the system is such that it's terribly difficult to see either party putting a woman at the top of the ticket in 2028.

 

[SebastianBlue]

The dynamic of this is thread is very interesting.

You’ve got a small contingent of us that have been intently following, analysing, discussing, and debating this election for months (even years) in the other US politics threads (that are currently locked). Most with skin in the game as either Americans or, like me, non-Americans that live in the US (and have American children).

You have others—probably most participants—that are just interested in the election on the day and aren’t looking to make any predictions or bold assertions about the why or how or what of the election, they just want to follow along.

Then you have a contingent of posters that were rarely, if ever, seen in the US politics threads, going full Wolf Blitzer, sharing dubious claims, making ignorant but exceedingly confident proclamations, and generally wanting to appear as experts on the subject they have just now decided to care about for the day.

This really is the match thread for the Election.

 

[FogBlueInSanFran]

I find it interesting that there's not a single American woman posting here that we know about, and my guess is, very few if any young people. If Harris is to win, it's these two groups that will rise up.

As such, I am taking nearly all predictions from UK-based FOCs (no offense :)) with a heavy dose of salt.