Gareth Barry Conlon
Well-Known Member
- Joined
- 5 Sep 2014
- Messages
- 14,698
I still think Harris will win comfortably. The betting follows the money and the money follows the polls. The polls are based upon miniscule samples of people and are almost always wrong. They're more likely to be correct months before the election before bias and Harris led at that point, tons of people haven't just suddenly switched to Trump.
It could go either way but I just can't see Trump winning the really close swing states such as Pennsylvania. It really depends which poll you believe but some have her winning by 3-4%, others it's 50/50 but Trump never seems to lead.
I think even places like Georgia and Nevada will go closer than the polling currently suggests. Either way none of it is posting towards a Trump win. He has a 50/50 chance at best but any other result seems to lean towards Harris.
My prediction
I'm stuck between thinking it's really close in the swing states and Trump has a fighters chance.
To then thinking he doesn't seem to have a solid lead in any of them. They could literally all go to Harris and he could be fighting for Florida where abortion is on the ballot.
On balance I think Harris wins but I've no idea what the map will look like. She could win Florida and lose Penn.
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