US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

Read that from BBC

Ukraine are going to get told to forget about Crimea.

I do think Ukraine will get the rest of their land back, I already said in the other thread last week.

I said probably with some sort of Russian (but maybe UN) peacekeeping force.

Ultimately Russia will have concerns over what it classes as Russian citizens there, I can’t see them just walking out.

I think Trump pulls US out of NATO, personally. Read this as to why.

But it’s either going to be a US withdrawal or legal agreements (which Russia wanted before 2022) that Ukraine would never be part of NATO.

I think if the US do pull out of NATO, it essentially dies and a European army will be formed, which to be honest I think is better for everyone. Europe is protected from US instability as it is currently over reliant. Russia will probably feel more comfortable without the US on its borders and the US will make a shit ton of money selling arms to Europe. Edit: on top of the shit ton of money they’re making in supplying Europe with LNG (edit: and oil), because Europe aren’t getting it from Russia ever again. At least until it starts getting supplied from Gaza Marine anyway ;)

Another edit: I think the Europeans (Germans) are happy with this too, as they get access to the lithium in the Donbas they need for their electric cars. The Ukrainian government is bankrupt and western companies are going to be mining there, probably on a lease.
 
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This whole discussion around the Democrats "talking down to ordinary people" confuses me. How much "talking down to" has actually gone on and how much is it people simply falling for populism 101? There's definitely been times where the Democrats have walked into traps and given Trump the soundbites he wants to support his tactics, but the whole point of a populist is they will tell you that the 'elites' are sneering at you and they will repeat this ad-nauseum until you believe it irrespective of its truth. Creating this fictional division in your mind is a defining tactic.

A conversation about whether the Democrats failed to focus on their base sufficiently and a broader discussion about the democrat position on inequalities are valid ones, but the whole hand wringing around talking down to people is probably leaving Trump's strategists pissing themselves laughing.
 
threespires said:
This whole discussion around the Democrats "talking down to ordinary people" confuses me. How much "talking down to" has actually gone on and how much is it people simply falling for populism 101? There's definitely been times where the Democrats have walked into traps and given Trump the soundbites he wants to support his tactics, but the whole point of a populist is they will tell you that the 'elites' are sneering at you and they will repeat this ad-nauseum until you believe it irrespective of its truth. Creating this fictional division in your mind is a defining tactic.

A conversation about whether the Democrats failed to focus on their base sufficiently and a broader discussion about the democrat position on inequalities are valid ones, but the whole hand wringing around talking down to people is probably leaving Trump's strategists pissing themselves laughing.
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The “talking down to them” argument falls right into the trap populists lay. I posted this before — how should experts deal with the objections of non-experts? The only answer, apparently, is just to lie to them — every other option has been rejected as too “offensive” or “hurtful”, and you can’t ignore them because they have influence — as they should — in a democracy. Of course, as we discussed before, this was precisely what certain Greek philosophers and the founding fathers were concerned about in a democracy.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
The “talking down to them” argument falls right into the trap populists lay. I posted this before — how should experts deal with the objections of non-experts? The only answer, apparently, is just to lie to them — every other option has been rejected as too “offensive” or “hurtful”, and you can’t ignore them because they have influence — as they should — in a democracy. Of course, as we discussed before, this was precisely what certain Greek philosophers and the founding fathers were concerned about in a democracy.
Click to expand...
We’ve lost the generation that lived through the last fascist uprising. They aren’t here to ground us anymore.

As you say, if you don’t agree with them, you’re talking down to them. They no longer listen.

Therefore they and we will have to learn by lived experience. This is just the beginning.

Who knows where the world and its population will be spat out.
 
bluesteel said:
Read that from BBC

Ukraine are going to get told to forget about Crimea.

I do think Ukraine will get the rest of their land back, I already said in the other thread last week.

I said probably with some sort of Russian (but maybe UN) peacekeeping force.

Ultimately Russia will have concerns over what it classes as Russian citizens there, I can’t see them just walking out.

I think Trump pulls US out of NATO, personally. Read this as to why.

But it’s either going to be a US withdrawal or legal agreements (which Russia wanted before 2022) that Ukraine would never be part of NATO.

I think if the US do pull out of NATO, it essentially dies and a European army will be formed, which to be honest I think is better for everyone. Europe is protected from US instability as it is currently over reliant. Russia will probably feel more comfortable without the US on its borders and the US will make a shit ton of money selling arms to Europe. Edit: on top of the shit ton of money they’re making in supplying Europe with LNG, because Europe aren’t getting it from Russia ever again. At least until it starts getting supplied from Gaza Marine anyway ;)

Another edit: I think the Europeans (Germans) are happy with this too, as they get access to the lithium in the Donbas they need for their electric cars. The Ukrainian government is bankrupt and western companies are going to be mining there, probably on a lease.
Click to expand...
Putin is not afraid of Trump and there’s no way he takes one backwards step from where they are today in Ukraine. Zelenskyy is the one with the weak hand, because it’s reaching out to Trump with an open palm…and that comes at great cost to a megalomaniacal tyrant.

Crimea, is, was, and probably never will be anything but Russian. Russia wants the Black Sea coast, at a minimum and a wasteland buffer on its southern and southwestern flank. Ukraine is that…and it is a huge landmass.

Trump will find he cannot get the US out of NATO, and I don’t think the US wants to out…certainly not the military leaders in the US. Repatriating nukes, massive air bases, and the costs associated (including cutting about 1/3 of the military personnel) isn’t going to play in DC.

Trump’s bluster is ALL about trying to get a better deal or else. Whether he gets one or not, he declares victory and moves on. He’s a professional blagger, who is bigger, better, stronger, braver, more “beautiful” than anything else EVER! I mean, for someone to come out in America and say they’re the best President for blacks in America…even better than Lincoln…is not just a sign of senility, but one of unfettered “blaggery”!

Domestically is where WE are going to reap the whirlwind that is Trump. The Christian Conservatives behind his throne have their road map on the reconstruction of the American way of life in their image. They’ve generally succeeded in the courts and they’re now going to run roughshod through the domestic legislative process to reshape the country. Challenges to their legislative agenda will be met by a SCOTUS that will do their bidding and the job will be done.

The Executive Branch is going to assert authority over the Legislative Branch AND the Judicial Branch, with the separation of powers being concentrated like never before.

This will lead to the quickest sea change in American politics and life we have ever seen and the landscape should look very different in 4 years of unfettered, unconstrained attack on America from the inside…which is why Trump has primed the pump with his “enemies within” labeling! Any resistance has already been identified and he will simply attach the label in yet another “I told you so!” moment.

Trump is going to try to leverage everyone for everything, but he (incorrectly) assumes America can be isolationist. It can’t…if it wants to remain the pre-eminent global power he thinks it is.

The problem with Europe is it has battered wives syndrome and thinks it needs America more than America needs it. It doesn’t. The relationship is symbiotic, and it would be more damaging to Trump, in his last chance at immortality, to lose Europe than it would be for the powers in Europe to lose Trump.

The global fear of Russia marching across Europe feels a smidge overblown, given the machinery and tools of war amassed at the frontlines, and the economic ties that bind.

Europe needs to pull up its big boy pants and meet Trumps bluster with coolness, calmness and strength, while ensuring any tantrums are made public in global media channels he doesn’t control. Trump doesn’t like being on the defensive, as we’ve seen from his scowls when put against the wall. Don’t let the bully dominate, or even have the bully pulpit to himself, and you neuter him.

EVERYONE has seen the playbook before. Simply call him on it and move forward unified…with or without him…knowing that calling his bluff is his Achilles heel!
 
ChicagoBlue said:
Putin is not afraid of Trump and there’s no way he takes one backwards step from where they are today in Ukraine. Zelenskyy is the one with the weak hand, because it’s reaching out to Trump with an open palm…and that comes at great cost to a megalomaniacal tyrant.

Crimea, is, was, and probably never will be anything but Russian. Russia wants the Black Sea coast, at a minimum and a wasteland buffer on its southern and southwestern flank. Ukraine is that…and it is a huge landmass.

Trump will find he cannot get the US out of NATO, and I don’t think the US wants to out…certainly not the military leaders in the US. Repatriating nukes, massive air bases, and the costs associated (including cutting about 1/3 of the military personnel) isn’t going to play in DC.

Trump’s bluster is ALL about trying to get a better deal or else. Whether he gets one or not, he declares victory and moves on. He’s a professional blagger, who is bigger, better, stronger, braver, more “beautiful” than anything else EVER! I mean, for someone to come out in America and say they’re the best President for blacks in America…even better than Lincoln…is not just a sign of senility, but one of unfettered “blaggery”!

Domestically is where WE are going to reap the whirlwind that is Trump. The Christian Conservatives behind his throne have their road map on the reconstruction of the American way of life in their image. They’ve generally succeeded in the courts and they’re now going to run roughshod through the domestic legislative process to reshape the country. Challenges to their legislative agenda will be met by a SCOTUS that will do their bidding and the job will be done.

The Executive Branch is going to assert authority over the Legislative Branch AND the Judicial Branch, with the separation of powers being concentrated like never before.

This will lead to the quickest sea change in American politics and life we have ever seen and the landscape should look very different in 4 years of unfettered, unconstrained attack on America from the inside…which is why Trump has primed the pump with his “enemies within” labeling! Any resistance has already been identified and he will simply attach the label in yet another “I told you so!” moment.

Trump is going to try to leverage everyone for everything, but he (incorrectly) assumes America can be isolationist. It can’t…if it wants to remain the pre-eminent global power he thinks it is.

The problem with Europe is it has battered wives syndrome and thinks it needs America more than America needs it. It doesn’t. The relationship is symbiotic, and it would be more damaging to Trump, in his last chance at immortality, to lose Europe than it would be for the powers in Europe to lose Trump.

The global fear of Russia marching across Europe feels a smidge overblown, given the machinery and tools of war amassed at the frontlines, and the economic ties that bind.

Europe needs to pull up its big boy pants and meet Trumps bluster with coolness, calmness and strength, while ensuring any tantrums are made public in global media channels he doesn’t control. Trump doesn’t like being on the defensive, as we’ve seen from his scowls when put against the wall. Don’t let the bully dominate, or even have the bully pulpit to himself, and you neuter him.

EVERYONE has seen the playbook before. Simply call him on it and move forward unified…with or without him…knowing that calling his bluff is his Achilles heel!
Click to expand...
Really good post.

John Roberts has been the most disappointing Chief Justice in my lifetime. I was relying on him to steer the court to the center as a rational pragmatist, but failing that, to protect the court’s independence. He’s instead proved himself a weak-knee’ed coward whose lack of follow-through on Court ethical issues has shocked me.
 
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