US Presidential Election, Nov 5th 2024

[SebastianBlue]

AP calls Ohio for Trump.

They are generally calling much earlier than most other outlets, using projection models.

I read through their methodology the other day and it generally seemed sound. But some of their calls with the votes still to be counted (especially from the areas to be counted) seem a little rushed to me.

But they have had a fairly good track record in past cycles, so will trust they aren’t breaking from the modelling framework just to be first.

Just called Texas for Trump, as well.

 

[argyle]

Not looking good for Harris right now?

 

[Don Karleone]

Yes then.

 

[MCFC1993]

I think she's going to take Pennsylvannia.

I should be going to bed.

 

[moomba]

Not looking good for Harris right now?

Still up in the air.

 

[bumbleblue]

What the fuck is happening. I keep seeing different numbers. In short does Kamala still have a chance?

 

[MCFC1993]

What the fuck is happening. I keep seeing different numbers. In short does Kamala still have a chance?

No state has changed from 2020 yet, looks like Georgia will but Trump needs more.

 

[supercity88]

What the fuck is happening. I keep seeing different numbers. In short does Kamala still have a chance?

Yes.

Trumps won where he was expected to and whilst some early numbers are in his favour, the sheer scale of the US means the vote share can be significantly different depending where you are in a State.

The big calls are yet to come.

 

[Frank the Yank]

What the fuck is happening. I keep seeing different numbers. In short does Kamala still have a chance?

It’s still neck and neck. No states have been flipped from 2020. You can say Harris is holding serve. Even if Trump breaks by taking GA he still faces an uphill battle.

 

[MCFC1993]

Not looking good for Harris right now?

Nothing surprising yet.