US Tariff War

I'm With Stupid said:
Full video isn't out till Sunday (on Youtube), but this looks like it'll be worth a watch.



South Korean economist Ha-Joon Chang. South Korea have a lot of experience using tariffs to build up industries. Safe to say he doesn't think Trump knows what he's doing.
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That's pretty much a given. Had he taken the fortune his father left him and invested in the US Stock market S&P 500, he'd have more money that he has now by simply doing nothing.
 
Bluesince1979 said:
Maybe this view is simplistic, i hold my hands up to being a million miles from any sort of expert..

With these worldwide tariffs that the silly **** is throwing about, wont the consumers ultimately seek alternatives and buy from other countries ?
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Not that easy. Many large American companies have their manufacturing facilities in China and other parts of Asia. Many of these manufacturing facilities are high-tech and to shift manufacturing can take years in the planning. The American public are going to get hit big times with these tariffs.
 
I'm With Stupid said:
Full video isn't out till Sunday (on Youtube), but this looks like it'll be worth a watch.



South Korean economist Ha-Joon Chang. South Korea have a lot of experience using tariffs to build up industries. Safe to say he doesn't think Trump knows what he's doing.
Click to expand...


Chang is wonderful and witty. Thanks for drawing my attention to that. Looking forward to watching the full interview.
 
Some fantastic understatement from DB...

"We worry this risks lowering the policy credibility of the administration on a forward-looking basis,” said George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank. “The market may question the extent to which a sufficiently structured planning process for major economic decisions is taking place.”
 
10% tariffs on McDonald island… only populated by penguins…. Well done with your “algorithm “ Orange buffoon
 

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It seems like maybe this is obvious but worth saying: the real issue here for Americans is that American companies who compete with importers now have free rein to raise THEIR prices as their competition is now far less, errr, competitively-priced. So not only do Americans end up paying more for imported goods, but for domestic goods. And even if a U.S. product provider wanted to simply gain market share by keeping pricing flat, the ultimate goal would be to gain share so that pricing power could ultimately increase long-run and/or domestic manufacturing efficiencies/productivity could be enhanced — which is the only real benefit I see. And that won’t always or even that often happen, and would be years away.
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
It seems like maybe this is obvious but worth saying: the real issue here for Americans is that American companies who compete with importers now have free rein to raise THEIR prices as their competition is now far less, errr, competitively-priced. So not only do Americans end up paying more for imported goods, but for domestic goods. And even if a U.S. product provider wanted to simply gain market share by keeping pricing flat, the ultimate goal would be to gain share so that pricing power could ultimately increase long-run and/or domestic manufacturing efficiencies/productivity could be enhanced — which is the only real benefit I see. And that won’t always or even that often happen, and would be years away.
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The misalignment with how the American financial system works in practice is one of the points Chang makes in that video above.
 
vincent said:
Not that easy. Many large American companies have their manufacturing facilities in China and other parts of Asia. Many of these manufacturing facilities are high-tech and to shift manufacturing can take years in the planning. The American public are going to get hit big times with these tariffs.
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Yeah i thought it was a bit simplistic
 
Its rapidly becoming Brexit - "just trust President Trump to get it right" - the same as "if you want Brexit to succeed you just have to believe in it more"

 
threespires said:
Some fantastic understatement from DB...

"We worry this risks lowering the policy credibility of the administration on a forward-looking basis,” said George Saravelos of Deutsche Bank. “The market may question the extent to which a sufficiently structured planning process for major economic decisions is taking place.”
Click to expand...
Ha ha ha ha ha ha. Wait. Seriously?
 
Why has none of these journalists questioned Trump or any of his clown posse on the next phase of this masterplan yet?

Lets say we are in a world that he's imagining where America suddenly has all this manufacturing power, (ignoring the numerous years it would take to get all that set up) are say a Nike as an example going to employ Americans to work for a similar wage that they currently pay Vietnamese kids to make their clothes? I'm going to presume not so therefore they'll incur substantial increases in wages which will be reflected in the new much higher price they have to pay for the same stuff they currently have. And then if they try and sell it outside of the US, they could potentially see reciprocal tariffs which will raise the price even further to sell anywhere but the US and drive away demand. So who wins in his dream world? Unsurprisingly, there doesn't seem to be any actual goal it's just this line of "other countries have been taking advantage of America for too long" yeah they sure have... vietnam allowing a US company to pay peanuts for child labour exploiting that countries economic status to make cheap clothes to maximize profits for billionaire Americans is really not on those Vietnamese kids need to stop freeloading off America and allow for American child labour to grow.
 
Just had a back & forth with a former USA colleague - his exact words about what Trump is doing “The art of a deal”! He’s a VP of International Sales in a company based in Virginia but moved all manufacturing out to China & Mexico years ago - they supply a large volume of domestic goods via Walmart! He’s a very intelligent guy but they are completely deluded thinking Trump is fighting for USA! It’s like having Del Boy in charge of the economy!
 
Trevor Morley's Tache said:
That's pretty much a given. Had he taken the fortune his father left him and invested in the US Stock market S&P 500, he'd have more money that he has now by simply doing nothing.
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I expect that’s no longer true, or at least it won’t be by the time he’s done.
 
I just wonder, how wise is it to just make huge changes to tariffs coming from all directions when Doge has been cutting government staff among which in ... customs ...

Havnt we seen that before with brexit? you will have to remind me as your brits about the details, i was of the Impression that after Brexit your government started with a large customs deficit which resulted in ports getting stuck and long lines of trucks waiting in line. Afaik as i know it took the Uk years to fix that situation fully, in between which many goods probably passed withought any tariff check or perhaps even any tariff levied. It was a bit of a embarrassment right? And its kinda pointless to have tariffs if you dont have the people to enforce them, no'r to have all the goods stuck in port unable to be sold and perhaps even perishing as time goes on. So how much attention has the trump government given to the logistical side of it?

If my impression is right, it might take but a short time before we see a logistical snafu emerge along ports and various roads and custom stations as they simply cant handle the job they now have to do with the manpower and means they have, either resulting in things getting stuck or having to pass withought check. The US stock market is going to love it if this sort of self inflicted pain is going to be part of it.
 
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