US Tariff War

robbieh said:
As others have mentioned it will take ages for the US to pick up the slack if they stop imports. In such an uncertain situation who the hell will invest in all these new or rejigged industries. The US government? Doubt it as they want tax cuts.

I can see capital flowing out not in.

At which point the US economy tanks and as a last resort their military get involved.
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Even if you got a load of companies willing to invest in American manufacturing, that doesn't happen over night, it's going to take longer than the 4 years trump has in charge to go from planning to producing by which time you have to imagine the next president will instantly get rid of all tariffs he's imposed and then investing in much more costly American manufacturing doesn't make sense again. All comapnies are just going to wait him out and pass on the cost in the meantime.

Even In a world where they could get it all up and running instantly, are the Americans going to work for the peanuts the chinese/Taiwanese are being paid? If not the increase in cost of production is presumably passed down to the consumers and so the price goes up anyway.

The only way his mad plan works in any sense for Americans is if the price of everything rises to the point where it's not costing any more to produce in America so they may aswell and there's no way of spinning that as making America great again.

Meanwhile, the rest of the world after suffering short term leans to be less reliant on Americans, demand for American products worldwide slumps and new global trade deals are forged that are free of tariffs and will keep costs stable.
 
robbieh said:
As others have mentioned it will take ages for the US to pick up the slack if they stop imports. In such an uncertain situation who the hell will invest in all these new or rejigged industries. The US government? Doubt it as they want tax cuts.

I can see capital flowing out not in.

At which point the US economy tanks and as a last resort their military get involved.
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To shoot protesters or to shoot Trump?
 
Gabriel said:
Trump doubling down. Another 50% on China unless it backs down by Wednesday. Can't imagine how Beijing and the markets will respond to that.
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It's bluster and bluff, it's like a game of poker. He's hoping that by threatening this the EU and the UK don't raise tarriffs on US imports. Which is exactly what we should do.

You negotiate from a position of strength, not weakness. If the rumours are true that the UK government are offering to reduce taxes on US Internet companies that crazy. Politicians are great at giving away our money.
 
ninjamonkey said:
Says it all when the whole world is backing China on this.

China doesn't need to announce reciprocal tariffs and probably doesnt really want to, they'll know it will harm them and their people more than anything but I think at this point, it's not about the tariffs, it's somebody hitting back at trump and letting the clown know he doesn't get to rule the world. If China back down now it makes them look subservient. If any other country has the balls to make a stand, now would be the time to hit back, if the whole world reacts like China, trump cannot worm his way out of that.

Hope China double down on this and just carry on hitting them with reciprocal tariffs. Its the best way to cause some serious damage to trump. Its like a game of poker where Trumps ego will force him to keep raising the stakes on a weak hand to try and force China to fold, only he's betting with American citizens money not his own and the more he bets, the more nervous his cultists get. China don't have a strong hand either but have more chips to play with, they are confident he has nothing and are comfortable pushing him for now but they wont want to go all in themselves so it's a question of who folds first.

Americas economy will burn within weeks if he genuinely applies tariffs over 100%, once backstock has gone which will be weeks for the majority of things and the new prices are brought in to reflect the new cost, they'll be riots in every city across America. Most people will not be able to survive when the cost of practically everything has doubled overnight.

Americans need the Chinese trade for everything in their daily lives and they'll simply have to eat the costs on certain things whereas a lot of the US trade going to China is luxury stuff you can do without or find alternatives for and if they've got any sense, them along with the rest of the world will follow Canada's lead and boycott American goods where possible. Any reciprocal tariffs won't even matter if nobody is buying American products in the first place.
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Bingo! China, the EU, Japan, Aus and the UK only need to meet and discuss raising Tarriffs on US goods and Trump and his cronies will cave immediately.
 
response from the Chinese government, translation："If the U.S. side continues down its wrong path, China will have no choice but to fight till the end."
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I think it's hard to call this a "war". If America does not want to import any goods from China, it certainly has the right to do so. While China naturally prefers not to cut trade ties with America, now that America has made its decision, there is nothing China can do except ensure that the America pays a corresponding price. We simply have no choice but to adapt to the new reality. The sun will rise again tomorrow.
 
I dont know enough about tarriffs or the WTO but i wonder if all WTO countries should agree to trade with each other with Jan 2025 tariffs in place for the next 20 years. If the US can't then it is excluded.

Maybe there might be an incentive too to lower existing tarriffs for China with them working longterm to meet certain democratic/human-right standards.

Basically create a nonUS, Israel or Russia economic block that gives China a market for its cheap goods while not undercutting important sectors that could hurt people or jobs in EMEA and elsewhere.

Probably not that easy but I'd like to think that by there could be a partnering between nations that would be good long term. That said is sounds a tad worldwarthreeish.
 
Alvin-blue-qhd said:
I think it's hard to call this a "war". If America does not want to import any goods from China, it certainly has the right to do so. While China naturally prefers not to cut trade ties with America, now that America has made its decision, there is nothing China can do except ensure that the America pays a corresponding price. We simply have no choice but to adapt to the new reality. The sun will rise again tomorrow.
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Confucius says .....

Go China is what I say. At least you know where you are with China. And living in Thailand I would be happier with a much stronger relationship with China than with the US.
 
halfcenturyup said:
I didn't say they were perfect and, having taken up Buddhism (as far as I want to), Tibet is a sore point. Granted :)
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My cousin died too soon through cancer. His mum, anticipating his death asked him what his religion was. He replied that he was a Buddhist, which shocked her as she was a very staunch Christian. He really had no belief in god, so Buddhism was a reasonable answer. It is the only ‘religion’ that I have any time for, as a belief in a deity is not compulsory.
 
Billionaire Elon Musk asked Donald Trump directly to reverse his tariffs over the weekend, according to the Washington Post.

Citing two sources, the news outlet said the exchange marks the highest profile disagreement between the Tesla CEO and US president.

Musk's pleas followed Trump's unveiling of a 10% baseline tariff on all imports to the US and higher duties on dozens of other countries last week.
 
What’s the long term plan here from the USA? There must be some sort of idea behind it for the long run? Surely it’s not just ‘Sun’s Out Guns Out’ stuff?

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