US Tariff War

Someone I grew up with is in a fairly high position in the economics side of the administration. Not Senate-confirmed, but close. He's always been off the map politically. He's also taken more hallucinogens than anyone I've ever known personally, had random acid flashbacks and was generally just kind of weird.

This was 15+ years ago, he's settled down and I'm no angel either, but the idea that this guy is more sober-minded than his bosses and one of the adults in the room for the largest economy on the planet is truly surreal and says a lot.
 
roubaixtuesday said:
No. There are not.
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@mancity2012_eamo
Trump fucked up every business he entered, including Casinos which are a licence to print money. That’s how useless he is. He is now doing the same to USA. Six bankruptcies.
His cabinet is deliberately made of people he controls.
He is challenging the rule of law by disobeying judges’ orders.
People have to realise what a disaster that is and stop hoping there is a Trump plan. Remember his health plan ? That never arrived because it didn’t exist.
No plan exists now. He has the concept of a plan, he says. Ho Ho.
 
mancity2012_eamo said:
So just go over this one more time Foggy.
So you’re saying he’s a gobshite?
Am I getting this right?
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It’s more than that.

He — and his administration — are stupid.
He — and his administration — are serial liars.
He — and his administration — do not care about the consequences of their actions on anyone other than themselves.
He — and his administration — are fundamentally interested in revenge/payback against those they believe have wronged them or are threats to them.

Just operate with these four provable axioms and it’s far easier to reach conclusions about why they do everything they do.

Do not over-complicate this to make their statements/policies fit into some well-worn preconceived idea about how leadership and government in a peaceable world has acted or should act.

Stop trying. You’re confused because that is not the correct framework.

My framework is the correct framework.

That’s why I’ve been right about him all along (as have many others here), and anyone who has disagreed with me (or us) has been wrong.
 
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FogBlueInSanFran said:
It’s more than that.

He — and his administration — are stupid.
He — and his administration — are serial liars.
He — and his administration — do not care about the consequences of their actions on anyone other than themselves.
He — and his administration — are fundamentally interested in revenge/payback against those they believe have wronged them or are threats to them.

Just operate with these four provable axioms and it’s far easier to reach conclusions about why they do everything they do.

Do not over-complicate this to make their statements/policies fit into some well-worn preconceived idea about how leadership and government in a peaceable world has acted or should act.

Stop trying. You’re confused because that is not the correct framework.

My framework is the correct framework.

That’s why I’ve been right about him all along (as have many others here), and anyone who has disagreed with me (or us) has been wrong.
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In your opinion .....
 
FogBlueInSanFran said:
It’s more than that.

He — and his administration — are stupid.
He — and his administration — are serial liars.
He — and his administration — do not care about the consequences of their actions on anyone other than themselves.
He — and his administration — are fundamentally interested in revenge/payback against those they believe have wronged them or are threats to them.

Just operate with these four provable axioms and it’s far easier to reach conclusions about why they do everything they do.

Do not over-complicate this to make their statements/policies fit into some well-worn preconceived idea about how leadership and government in a peaceable world has acted or should act.

Stop trying. You’re confused because that is not the correct framework.

My framework is the correct framework.

That’s why I’ve been right about him all along (as have many others here), and anyone who has disagreed with me (or us) has been wrong.
Click to expand...
You should have said something.
 
KS55 said:
@mancity2012_eamo
Trump fucked up every business he entered, including Casinos which are a licence to print money. That’s how useless he is. He is now doing the same to USA. Six bankruptcies.
His cabinet is deliberately made of people he controls.
He is challenging the rule of law by disobeying judges’ orders.
People have to realise what a disaster that is and stop hoping there is a Trump plan. Remember his health plan ? That never arrived because it didn’t exist.
No plan exists now. He has the concept of a plan, he says. Ho Ho.
Click to expand...
How about his plan is to use project 25 as a blueprint of how to kill democracy? Declare martial law. No elections so he stays indefinitely in power.
 
Beef in Britain (price to farmers) is up from £5/kilo last year to £7/kilo now (lower UK supply, more UK demand). That might have been a chance for Australian beef to reach our shelves, but that's going to China to make up for US beef not going there! And some of the reduced UK supply may be because the post-Brexit Australia trade deal under the last government was going to allow in Australian imports by weight (so they could just send us the best cuts) leading some farmers to get out of beef.

Oh what a merry web we weave...
 
Well, as there are apparently people on here who have all the answers, what do any of you think the US will look like in 2028? Anyone can analyse retrospectively but it's more difficult to get things right four years in advance.

Does anybody care to lay down some markers so we can see in four years time who is really able to understand what is about to play out?

I'm betting nobody does .....
 
halfcenturyup said:
Well, as there are apparently people on here who have all the answers, what do any of you think the US will look like in 2028? Anyone can analyse retrospectively but it's more difficult to get things right four years in advance.

Does anybody care to lay down some markers so we can see in four years time who is really able to understand what is about to play out?

I'm betting nobody does .....
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The big big question in that period is how does Trump and the GOP deal with the end of his 4 year term.

The first big test will be the 2026 mid terms. A bunch of house and senate seats up for election. In his first term Trump didn’t really show much interest beyond trying to help the maga wing of the party but his help was often detrimental as his popularity was pretty low by that point. This time feels different as Trump will be 100% set on maintaining the office. That and Trump in general will no doubt be the wedge issue.

If Trump continues to drive the economy downwards Dems will win heavily and the prospect of Trump staying on will be gone. However I suspect he will have to start getting his act together and his approval up so I expect him to move on from Tariffs. Claim a big victory and then hope the economic recovery is something he can claim as a success.

Beyond that. Events and the response will dictate how Trump is perceived. He has an office staffed with idiots and psychos. Impossible to say what will go down.
 
55yr old teenager said:
How about his plan is to use project 25 as a blueprint of how to kill democracy? Declare martial law. No elections so he stays indefinitely in power.
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That’s not a plan, it’s an aspiration. A plan has clear progressive steps, a list of actions etc. Trump doesn’t know what his actions will be next week.
 
Gareth Barry Conlon said:
The big big question in that period is how does Trump and the GOP deal with the end of his 4 year term.

The first big test will be the 2026 mid terms. A bunch of house and senate seats up for election. In his first term Trump didn’t really show much interest beyond trying to help the maga wing of the party but his help was often detrimental as his popularity was pretty low by that point. This time feels different as Trump will be 100% set on maintaining the office. That and Trump in general will no doubt be the wedge issue.

If Trump continues to drive the economy downwards Dems will win heavily and the prospect of Trump staying on will be gone. However I suspect he will have to start getting his act together and his approval up so I expect him to move on from Tariffs. Claim a big victory and then hope the economic recovery is something he can claim as a success.

Beyond that. Events and the response will dictate how Trump is perceived. He has an office staffed with idiots and psychos. Impossible to say what will go down.
Click to expand...

Yet people will be telling us how they predicted what will have happened when the mid-terms come along.

My crystal ball tells me Trump will get bored with bad messaging on trade, at some point soon will show how successful his tariffs were, declare a tough victory over China and his base will lap it up. Economy and stock exchanges will recover and everyone will have forgotten about it all. The worst that will happen long-term is that Europe will make itself more independent on security - easily sold as a win. Same on immigration, gangs and dei. And his base will lap those up too.

Basically he will be able to show that he did what he said he would and make some stuff up that his base will believe. So he will still be comparatively strong in 2026 and the Democrats will still a (politically) ineffective shambles. My balls, crystal or otherwise, are having some trouble these days, though .....

But I am more interested in what people are willing to commit themselves to regarding 2028 amongst all the discussions of doom.
 
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