Will we win the league this season?

[SpeaksForItself]

We'll probably flat-track-bully our way to third again.

The worrying stat is in the last 2 seasons we've played 15 times against "good" teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Real, PSG and Inter) and not won any of them. That needs to change pretty quickly for my opinion to be revised.

 

[thegoatsthegoat]

They say the league table does not lie but it did for City in 2024/25. After 9 games we were top of the league. Then Rodri got injured, closely followed by Kovacic, and then we won 1 game in 8. In the final half of the season, we never quite recovered title-wining form, but we came close taking 40 points from the last 19 games. We finished on 71 points, 13 points behind Liverpool. Our potential at the season end without Rodri was 80 points, a close 2nd to Liverpool.

In considering 2025/26, we have to ask 2 questions:

1) what improvement is likely from the recovery of Rodri, Stones, Bobb and the signings of Reijnders, Ait-Nouri, Cherki.

2) The potential of Liverpool and Arsenal. Arsenal's potential depends on who they bring in as a striker. One signing could make a big difference for them. I was expecting Liverpool to struggle next season given the age of their 2 most important players (VVD and Salah) but they have since spent £170m (net).

I think the CWC showed that City's attack will be a lot stronger in 2025/26 but that our defensive play without Rodri and Stones is very weak. We cannot get the full benefit of Doku and Cherki if we can't go full bore. 2025/26 is going to be a continuation of the battle between City v Liverpool v Arsenal with City's form dependent on the extent to which Rodri recovers. A fit Stones will be an unlikely bonus.

Here we are again Marvin. Banging that John Stones drum. Pointless coming to you with facts about how unreliable he has been all of his City career, how we won the league the year before with him not really contributing. Why let facts get in the way of a good rant. Why are you on a forum where it is great to discuss and debate, yet when faced with counter arguments with evidence you just put your fingers in your ears.

You also quote we was top of the league and then Rodri got injured after 9 games. Correct. Now I am not stupid enough to claim we don't miss Rodri. We do, he is our best player and we really struggle without him. It is worth noting though that the Arsenal game in which he got injured, was the first game that season he started. We was top of the league after about a quarter of the season without his input.

Rodri staying fit improves us greatly so fingers crossed that happens. If Stones was fit and played he wouldn't solve our shaky defence. He is part of that when he plays. We need Dias to become the leader he once was and a rock at the back and our new coaches to coach us and our shape better than it has been. Get a right back for full balance and go from there. I look forward to your one sentence reply, if any.

 

[Mazzarelli's Swiss Cheese]

We'll probably flat-track-bully our way to third again.

The worrying stat is in the last 2 seasons we've played 15 times against "good" teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Real, PSG and Inter) and not won any of them. That needs to change pretty quickly for my opinion to be revised.

But two seasons ago we won the title?

 

[bobbyowenquiff]

If Pep sorts the counter press out then yes, we’ll win it.

If he doesn’t, and teams have the chance to string 1/2 passes or play an accurate long ball still then no, we won’t.

It’s as simple as that. We excel in every area of the pitch but have a weakness of the counter. In 2017 he introduced tactical fouls (Sterling) and he needs something else new now.

He just needs to be more pragmatic. We will score a huge number of goals. Pep must bite the bullet and play with two holders in midfield against the better teams. I would have Rodri, Gonzalez, and Reijnders in the big games. He must also give Kusanov a chance. We need more pace at the back.

 

[SpeaksForItself]

But two seasons ago we won the title?

We did, by having a fantastic record against the bottom 14.
We beat 2 sides in the top 6 that year - Villa at home when they were missing half their first team and Spurs away, where Postecogolou was about the only person in the stadium who wanted Spurs to win!

 

[alexmcity]

99% don't win the league. (Not strictly true but still)

And?

We should moan that we only have Haaland, Rodri, Foden, Cherki, Tijjani, Ait-Nouri, Doku, Bobb, Gvardiol, Marmoush (not mentioning Ederson and more defenders as some are being scapegoated now) and that we should sign more stars so that the fans are happy?

We have a great squad and one of the greatest managers of all time. Those unhappy with the squad or the manager should have a bit of perspective. United are a lesson unfolding in front of our eyes.

We'll probably flat-track-bully our way to third again.

The worrying stat is in the last 2 seasons we've played 15 times against "good" teams (Liverpool, Arsenal, Real, PSG and Inter) and not won any of them. That needs to change pretty quickly for my opinion to be revised.

This is a good way to show that stats can be misused.

In 23/24 we not only won the title but were unbeaten in the CL, including by the future winners (two draws vs Real after being the better team overall). We didn't lose vs Liverpool either. As late as April we were chasing a consecutive Treble...

Last season was a disaster due to many injuries and aging players. Presenting both seasons as being continuous in quality (or as lacking such) is misleading.

 

[flook]

But two seasons ago we won the title?

tbf it was almost by accident, last season was close to happening the season before and should have been a wake-up call to recruit better sooner

 

[Father Paul]

Some may not like the publisher but the content backs you up.

New Man City signing rivals Bolt's record-breaking speed in stunning sprint

Footage of Manchester City’s new signing Abdukodir Khusanov sprinting at blistering speed has emerged on social media. The former Lens defender sprinted at a blistering speed of 37km/h during…

talksport.com

Not sure he is that fast but his goal saving intervention against the dippers indictes he is not far off that kind of pace. It is bewilldering and beyond comprehension that we have not seen more of the guy since those early weeks. Clearly the manager has his reasons, I recall a sudden substitution in one game, but surely the early encouraging signs should not have been strangled at birth. It will be interesting to see what happens next month when the season kicks off.

 

[Marvin.]

Not sure he is that fast but his goal saving intervention against the dippers indictes he is not far off that kind of pace. It is bewilldering and beyond comprehension that we have not seen more of the guy since those early weeks. Clearly the manager has his reasons, I recall a sudden substitution in one game, but surely the early encouraging signs should not have been strangled at birth. It will be interesting to see what happens next month when the season kicks off.

It was immediately obvious that Khusanov's defensive attributes were strong. But what about his possession game? Can you see Khusanov calmly bringing the ball out of defence under a press? He can also play right back, but what is is overlapping like? Can he beat a man and put a cross in?

If we are up against Vinicius Junior, my first choice man marker would be Khusanov but if he is meant to do some attacking, I will change my defender.

I agree that Khusanov is a potentially strong player for us. I think he just needs time

 

[SpeaksForItself]

This is a good way to show that stats can be misused.

In 23/24 we not only won the title but were unbeaten in the CL, including by the future winners (two draws vs Real after being the better team overall). We didn't lose vs Liverpool either. As late as April we were chasing a consecutive Treble...

Last season was a disaster due to many injuries and aging players. Presenting both seasons as being continuous in quality (or as lacking such) is misleading.

But we didn't beat them.

If you look at the underlying stats, we actually were top (and in most cases quite comfortably) in all of Pep's first 7 seasons including the 2 where we didn't win the league. Yes we won the league in 23/24 but in the underlying table Arsenal were 0.5 pts behind so it was basically a 50/50 toss up. (Essentially coming down to the home games against West Ham.)
The underlying trajectory of the last 2 years is only going in one direction. Trajectories are relevant. Sterling's form in the last 18 months with us had - let's be polite - plateaued and he has continued on a downward path ever since.

The success of the 2018-24 period was based on an unlikely-to-be-repeated recruitment hit rate in the summers of 2015-17.

Can we win the league? Yes, because there is what I call the "football paradox" where at the end of the season the good teams will be at the top and the bad teams will be at the bottom, but each individual game is much more of a 50/50 toss up than we would like to admit (even against the bottom teams - see Southampton last season against both us and Liverpool). So it comes down to fine margins. In 2019/20 Liverpool had a run of 10 50/50 games in a row (looking at things like possession/shots on target/xg etc) and they won 9 of them. Average teams would probably end up with 3-4-3, bad teams 1-2-7 and good teams 7-2-1. So Liverpool's return of 9-1-0 outperformed the expectation of good teams and the rest of the league couldn't match that return.

Something like that could happen to us next season.

In reality though, I think our core group of players have reached the summit, and are now traversing down the other side of the mountain.

The positive is though, going into a season without a great deal of expectation, gives the team the chance of over performing which I find (and I suspect I am not alone here) a much more exciting prospect.

 

[Marvin.]

But we didn't beat them.

If you look at the underlying stats, we actually were top (and in most cases quite comfortably) in all of Pep's first 7 seasons including the 2 where we didn't win the league. Yes we won the league in 23/24 but in the underlying table Arsenal were 0.5 pts behind so it was basically a 50/50 toss up. (Essentially coming down to the home games against West Ham.)
The underlying trajectory of the last 2 years is only going in one direction. Trajectories are relevant. Sterling's form in the last 18 months with us had - let's be polite - plateaued and he has continued on a downward path ever since.

The success of the 2018-24 period was based on an unlikely-to-be-repeated recruitment hit rate in the summers of 2015-17.

Can we win the league? Yes, because there is what I call the "football paradox" where at the end of the season the good teams will be at the top and the bad teams will be at the bottom, but each individual game is much more of a 50/50 toss up than we would like to admit (even against the bottom teams - see Southampton last season against both us and Liverpool). So it comes down to fine margins. In 2019/20 Liverpool had a run of 10 50/50 games in a row (looking at things like possession/shots on target/xg etc) and they won 9 of them. Average teams would probably end up with 3-4-3, bad teams 1-2-7 and good teams 7-2-1. So Liverpool's return of 9-1-0 outperformed the expectation of good teams and the rest of the league couldn't match that return.

Something like that could happen to us next season.

In reality though, I think our core group of players have reached the summit, and are now traversing down the other side of the mountain.

The positive is though, going into a season without a great deal of expectation, gives the team the chance of over performing which I find (and I suspect I am not alone here) a much more exciting prospect.

You make a number of unsubstantiated assertions. It would be more interesting if you made one claim and then evidenced it. You say, "our core group of players have reached the summit, and are now traversing down the other side of the mountain." Can you name them?

 

[Manc in London]

Pep doesn't see the issues in his team and is quite happy to play this ridiculous high line with no pace in defence. . Sort that and we'd have a decent chance of winning the league, however the dippers were well in front last year ( forget this top of the league since. Christmas bollox )and are arguably stronger again. It's a No.

Pep will know everything that is wrong with the team. In fact, his list of 'what is wrong' will be at least twice and mush more detailed than yours and mine.

Most of what I see as wrong is based on the decisions made by the players (Nico being caught out of position, Gvardiol's ridiculous square passes to opponents on the edge of our box, Nunes having brain farts etc..). In my eyes, it's not the system. Granted, he chooses the players but if we are being fair, many of those who played a substantial number of games last season would not have been selected on so many occasions had we not had so many injuries. Plus, the physical 'falling of the cliff' from KDB, Gundo and Dias.

Pep is not blame free but to say that he doesn't know what is wrong is simply incorrect.

 

[Le Havre Oswald]

I would imagine not, top 4 and maybe Europa depending on how the CL goes and/or domestic cup.

Mint I like your confidence!

 

[alexmcity]

But we didn't beat them.

If you look at the underlying stats, we actually were top (and in most cases quite comfortably) in all of Pep's first 7 seasons including the 2 where we didn't win the league. Yes we won the league in 23/24 but in the underlying table Arsenal were 0.5 pts behind so it was basically a 50/50 toss up. (Essentially coming down to the home games against West Ham.)
The underlying trajectory of the last 2 years is only going in one direction. Trajectories are relevant. Sterling's form in the last 18 months with us had - let's be polite - plateaued and he has continued on a downward path ever since.

The success of the 2018-24 period was based on an unlikely-to-be-repeated recruitment hit rate in the summers of 2015-17.

Can we win the league? Yes, because there is what I call the "football paradox" where at the end of the season the good teams will be at the top and the bad teams will be at the bottom, but each individual game is much more of a 50/50 toss up than we would like to admit (even against the bottom teams - see Southampton last season against both us and Liverpool). So it comes down to fine margins. In 2019/20 Liverpool had a run of 10 50/50 games in a row (looking at things like possession/shots on target/xg etc) and they won 9 of them. Average teams would probably end up with 3-4-3, bad teams 1-2-7 and good teams 7-2-1. So Liverpool's return of 9-1-0 outperformed the expectation of good teams and the rest of the league couldn't match that return.

Something like that could happen to us next season.

In reality though, I think our core group of players have reached the summit, and are now traversing down the other side of the mountain.

The positive is though, going into a season without a great deal of expectation, gives the team the chance of over performing which I find (and I suspect I am not alone here) a much more exciting prospect.

Tendencies are important, but injuries are important too. Last season, we were ravaged by injuries, which in combination with several aging players hit us hard.

Some key players are leaving, perhaps other key players are arriving. Gundo aside, the oldish players are not too old: e.g., they are younger than Salah and VVD. The attacking players are U25 bar Marmoush who's entering his prime.

If Pep doesn't trust Gonzales, then we need another young midfielder, and a RB too. That's it, injuries permitting.

We won 40 pts from the last 19 games wihout Rodri and the new signings, plus several defenders and Haaland missed 1-2 months between February and May.

If Rodri is back at 90% and 1-2 of the new signings hit the ground running, then 87-88 pts is a realistic target. We can compete for the title, unless another team wins, say, 95 pts.

Agree with the last part. Personally, my expectations are high though. What we showed vs Juventus will be the rule rather than the exception.

 

[blueparrot]

Pep will know everything that is wrong with the team. In fact, his list of 'what is wrong' will be at least twice and mush more detailed than yours and mine.

Most of what I see as wrong is based on the decisions made by the players (Nico being caught out of position, Gvardiol's ridiculous square passes to opponents on the edge of our box, Nunes having brain farts etc..). In my eyes, it's not the system. Granted, he chooses the players but if we are being fair, many of those who played a substantial number of games last season would not have been selected on so many occasions had we not had so many injuries. Plus, the physical 'falling of the cliff' from KDB, Gundo and Dias.

Pep is not blame free but to say that he doesn't know what is wrong is simply incorrect.

I think Pep knows exactly the issues and how he wants to set up next season. In fact I suspect the CWC was as much about giving the squad a once over with the new coaches and Viana before deciding who stays and who moves on over the next few weeks and whetherand where we need any more strengthening.

 

[Dr Jacoby]

I think we will finish third again.

I fear Pep will rely far too much on the likes of Gundogan, Kovacic and Akanji and our defence will badly be exposed by any team with some pace and quality.

I’d be more confident if we signed a right back and Khusanov & Gonzalez are given more opportunities. Dias should not be an automatic starter.

 

[blueparrot]

I think we will finish third again.

I fear Pep will rely far too much on the likes of Gundogan, Kovacic and Akanji and our defence will badly be exposed by any team with some pace and quality.

I’d be more confident if we signed a right back and Khusanov & Gonzalez are given more opportunities. Dias should not be an automatic starter.

Doubt at least 2 of those 3 will still be with us.

 

[Dr Jacoby]

Doubt at least 2 of those 3 will still be with us.

If you’re referring to Gundogan, Akanji and Kovacic, I hope you’re right.

 

[alexmcity]

If you’re referring to Gundogan, Akanji and Kovacic, I hope you’re right.

Akanji is the enemy of people.

We'll be a much better team if he isn't in the squad.

Who needs available and versatile squad players anyway? Can he stay fit like Ake and Stones? No. Can he run fast like Dias? No. Can he play both at RB and LB like Gvardiol? No. Useless.

 

[Dr Jacoby]

Akanji is the enemy of people.

We'll be a much better team if he isn't in the squad.

Who needs available and versatile squad players anyway? Can he stay fit like Ake and Stones? No. Can he run fast like Dias? No. Can he play both at RB and LB like Gvardiol? No. Useless.

I never said he was a bad player. He’s been a fantastic signing but I don’t think we should be over reliant on him, that’s all.