Referees/Officials 2017/18 performances

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MillionMilesAway said:
Cheers. Interesting, but I think we're looking at things differently.

For Pawson, I don't see how he can be blamed for 0-0 away draws (Villa, Leicester in 2015) and drawing at WHU, plus the obligatory defeat at Liverpool. He's not gone mad with cards either.
I also think that his pool of matches is too small to be a statistical pool.

I don't think Pawson is terrible or biassed.
Mason is terrible but not especially biased.

Some of the others look more dodgy, but I don't have time now to think about them further.
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Sorry, but that’s just wrong.

Of course, there is every reason in the world to be cautious about drawing conclusions from a small data base, but it is just incorrect to say any conclusion drawn from a datapool smaller than X is meaningless. If my (heavily insured) wife falls off a hotel balcony, on our honeymoon, that’s very sad. If my second wife perishes in the same way, that’s significant.

Besides, the datapool is not limited to Pawson’s games alone. The datapool consists of every referee in charge of a City game. You would expect a certain margin of appreciation within the sample about various issues (eg cards given) because different referees view incidents in different ways, but Pawson’s track record is distinctly anomalous when it comes to refereeing City games, as is Taylor’s. Statistics alone cannot prove anything. Statistics can not prove that smoking causes cancer but the statistical link between smoking and cancer is plain for all to see. What statistics can do is point out trends and anomalies that merit further investigation.

That is precisely the territory we are in with Taylor and Pawson.

Mason by the way is an odd one. I did a similar analysis in our first title winning game of Mason’s performances in City games, just before we played Wolves away. The results were distinctly worrying, though in the end I needn’t have worried as he was pulled from the game at the last minute. Since then, his performances in City games seem to have been a lot better.
 
TBooksbluearmy said:
Every time Taylor or Pawson have to set foot in the Etithad stadium to take charge of the match. We the fans should start with your not fit to referee your not fit to referee. We could also come out with you don't know what your doing, you don't know what your doing. This from the moment either of them blow the whistle to start the game.

This should be done in the final the moment Pawson fails to book an Arsenal player who deservers a booking especially if he has booked a City player for a similar offence. who is with me on this. Perhaps if we continually do this the FA might just might get the message and keep them away from the City team as a whole.
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Not too sure of the exact words he used, owing to the fact that I was at the game, rather than listening to his commentary, but didn’t the reason Ian Cheeseman eventually lost the City gig at Radio Manchester (United), supposedly have something to do with him daring to publicly criticise Taylor’s diabolical refereeing display, (on air), following Chelsea’s 3-1 victory at the Etihad in December 2016?

On a side note, (Given that they are “supposedly” a pro Manchester Radio station) their toe curlingly pro Wigan stance, both before, during, & after Monday’s game, was absolutely disgraceful
 
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Chris in London said:
Sorry, but that’s just wrong.

Of course, there is every reason in the world to be cautious about drawing conclusions from a small data base, but it is just incorrect to say any conclusion drawn from a datapool smaller than X is meaningless. If my (heavily insured) wife falls off a hotel balcony, on our honeymoon, that’s very sad. If my second wife perishes in the same way, that’s significant.

Besides, the datapool is not limited to Pawson’s games alone. The datapool consists of every referee in charge of a City game. You would expect a certain margin of appreciation within the sample about various issues (eg cards given) because different referees view incidents in different ways, but Pawson’s track record is distinctly anomalous when it comes to refereeing City games, as is Taylor’s. Statistics alone cannot prove anything. Statistics can not prove that smoking causes cancer but the statistical link between smoking and cancer is plain for all to see. What statistics can do is point out trends and anomalies that merit further investigation.

That is precisely the territory we are in with Taylor and Pawson.

Mason by the way is an odd one. I did a similar analysis in our first title winning game of Mason’s performances in City games, just before we played Wolves away. The results were distinctly worrying, though in the end I needn’t have worried as he was pulled from the game at the last minute. Since then, his performances in City games seem to have been a lot better.
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And I disagree with you! Or at least am talking about something significantly different. Your scenario ignores the many variables that affect a football match - the keeper having a mare/stormer, City being crap/stunning that day, injuries ...

I was talking about Pawson's set of matches not being big enough to extrapolate from, or not without introducing a significant chance of error. Extrapolating up from a set of 5 is far worse than extrapolating up from a set of 15 - any variation is exaggerated when using a set of 5.

The thing is that set can be skewed hugely by including one match in that period, the cup semifinal, either as a draw or a loss. Win %age goes from 80% to 66% in one match. That's just bad statistic interpretation, which is why I wouldn't use them as an argument scaled up a lot. (e.g. from Aug 2016 to date, our PL record is 4-0-1 with Pawson. Nothing wrong with that recent record. 29-30 wins in a season will do nicely yet he's a bad ref for City?)

If I had to pick one thing about Pawson, it's that I think he's a bit green still at the top level. Last year was only his 3rd regular top level season (20+ matches in the PL) and he's given a semifinal. In his 4th, he's got a final. Both seem very fast to me. Strangely, Sunday appears to be his first league cup match this season.

Mason? I just think he's a crap ref. For everyone.
And I ignored Taylor. He's so ludicrous that there is no point.
 
At least pawson has done var before. He can't afford to do the same as the wba Liverpool game again so should be better at it this time
 
MillionMilesAway said:
And I disagree with you! Or at least am talking about something significantly different. Your scenario ignores the many variables that affect a football match - the keeper having a mare/stormer, City being crap/stunning that day, injuries ...

I was talking about Pawson's set of matches not being big enough to extrapolate from, or not without introducing a significant chance of error. Extrapolating up from a set of 5 is far worse than extrapolating up from a set of 15 - any variation is exaggerated when using a set of 5.

The thing is that set can be skewed hugely by including one match in that period, the cup semifinal, either as a draw or a loss. Win %age goes from 80% to 66% in one match. That's just bad statistic interpretation, which is why I wouldn't use them as an argument scaled up a lot. (e.g. from Aug 2016 to date, our PL record is 4-0-1 with Pawson. Nothing wrong with that recent record. 29-30 wins in a season will do nicely yet he's a bad ref for City?)

If I had to pick one thing about Pawson, it's that I think he's a bit green still at the top level. Last year was only his 3rd regular top level season (20+ matches in the PL) and he's given a semifinal. In his 4th, he's got a final. Both seem very fast to me. Strangely, Sunday appears to be his first league cup match this season.

Mason? I just think he's a crap ref. For everyone.
And I ignored Taylor. He's so ludicrous that there is no point.
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When you say you ignored Taylor is it because you think he's ludicrously poor or ludicrously bent?
 
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