What percentage chance of going through (both now and when the draw was made)

Early goal for us. They have to come out and attack, leave gaps, we pick them off on the break. See you in Milan!!

Quietly confident.....
 
SWP's back said:
There are three results over ninety minutes in Madrid. Assuming it's not ending nil nil then two of those three results put us through.

I put our chances at 25% when the draw was made. I'd now says its 50:50. I'm buzzing at that result.
Click to expand...

Overall, I'd agree with this.
The longer we can hold them scoreless, over there, the more panicky they'll get.
We'll need to score though because two nil-all draws would be very surprising.
50/50... Assuming the ref plays fair.
 
Their record at home should make them extremely confident, but we have arguably been at our best when we least expected a performance. 60/40 in their favour.
 
Well, got back from the game just after midnight and seeing this post, have been crunching the numbers all night. After running several monte carlo simulations and drinking too much horlicks, I conclude "we have a chance".

Off to bed now :)
 
0-0 is not the worst result, i said before the game it wounld be ok, and i still think we can get the required result there yes with some luck, but i dont think its over, cant wait for the game now, strangley relaxed about it.
 
I think I feel slightly more confident. Really you want to be making the most of your home advantage but the away goals rule really keeps these ties interesting.

It's all about the one game now, which leaves us with one less game than we had before to potentially mess it up. Real will be favourites and have the home advantage but that's slightly negated by the fact that there are more possible outcomes/scorelines that would see us go through.
 
How 0-0's have gone for the home side in the 1st leg:
2015/16 - Last 16 - PSV drew 0-0 but went out on penalties to Atletico. - LOST
2014/15 - Quarter Final - Atletico lost 2nd leg to Real 1-0. - LOST
2014/15 - Last 16 - Shakhtar lost 7-0 in the return leg to Bayern - LOST
2013/14 - Semi Final - Atletico beat Chelsea 3-1. - WON
2012/13 - Quarter Final - Malaga lost 3-2 to Dortmund - LOST
2011/12 - Quarter Final - Milan lost 3-1 to Barcelona - LOST
2010/11 - Last 16 - Marseille lost 2-1 to Man Utd - LOST
2008/09 - Semi Final - Barcelona drawn 1-1 with Chelsea and went through on away goals - WON
2008/09 - Last 16 - Inter lost 2-0 to Man Utd - LOST
2007/08 - Semi Final - Barcelona lost 1-0 to Man Utd - LOST
2007/08 - Last 16 - Arsenal won 2-0 against Milan - WON
2007/08 - Last 16 - Olympiakos lost 3-0 to Chelsea - LOST
2006/07 - Last 16 - Roma won 2-0 against Lyon - WON
2006/07 - Last 16 - Celtic lost 1-0 to Milan after extra time - LOST
2005/06 - Quarter Final - Lyon lost 3-1 to Milan - LOST
2005/06 - Quarter Final - Benfica lost 2-0 to Barcelona - LOST

I only went back 10 years but history doesn't look brilliant for us, particularly recent history, 12 went OUT but 4 went THROUGH, but of course we still have a chance, 25% on those stats. Although the past 3 semi finals where the side at home has drawn 0-0, 2 out of 3 have gone through, so you could say we have a 66.6% chance.
 
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