What percentage chance of going through (both now and when the draw was made)

We have a great chance. Something which gets overlooked, because its convenient and because most pundits are too thick and just follow the crowd, is that defensively we have been very solid for a while now, only conceded 5 goals in our last 12 games. Of course you'll still here "I worry about their defence" and "their defence will always give you a chance" crap by people who don't actually watch us a lot. But we're much better than the general consensus, I expect we could easily hold them to just 1 goal, so I'd say our chances are the very least 50/50


Spot on. Must admit, i was in the keep Vinnie out of the game yesterday, buy my, he proved me wrong. Him and Ota had a brilliant performance. Mangler must be thinking, crikey, the bar is high at this club.
 
I've never been Pellegrini's biggest fan, but this was his preferred tactic at both Villarreal and Malaga, often progressing after a goalless home first leg, and then going for the away goal.
Even when Malaga were robbed at Dortmund, the first leg was goalless.

We've got a chance in Madrid, but let's not kid ourselves. We'll need, discipline, concentration, and a lot of luck.
 
Spot on. Must admit, i was in the keep Vinnie out of the game yesterday, buy my, he proved me wrong. Him and Ota had a brilliant performance. Mangler must be thinking, crikey, the bar is high at this club.
35%, historically speaking.


Under current regulations, 712 european ties started with 0-0 on 1st leg. 462 times (65%) went through the one with 2nd leg at home.
Interesting stat that. If form and betting odds aren't used and just maths. It's 65.625 in our favour. Think the way to approach this, is to try and make it an end to end game . I feel confident if we can do that.
 
Interesting stat that. If form and betting odds aren't used and just maths. It's 65.625 in our favour. Think the way to approach this, is to try and make it an end to end game . I feel confident if we can do that.

how do you get that?
 
how do you get that?
They aren't betting odds btw. So a pinch of salt is req lol. There are 4 possible results. Loose, draw 0.0,scoring draw, win. At normal time. If it's 0.0 then extra time will have the same possible results. A 0.0 then will be 50. 50 on pens. So lose (0 percent) 0.0-0 (62.5 percent) score draw (100 percent) win (100 percent) add and devide by 4. 65.625 percent. And yes I've too much time on my hands today lol.
 
I've never been Pellegrini's biggest fan, but this was his preferred tactic at both Villarreal and Malaga, often progressing after a goalless home first leg, and then going for the away goal.
Even when Malaga were robbed at Dortmund, the first leg was goalless.

We've got a chance in Madrid, but let's not kid ourselves. We'll need, discipline, concentration, and a lot of luck.

Where's this "often progressing after a goaless home first leg" home leg coming from? I can't find 1 example for him at both Villareal or Malaga. Sure, he had plenty of 0-0 in group stages and the 4 against United in 5/6 and 8/9 are testimony to that. But the group stages are a different beast.
 
Where's this "often progressing after a goaless home first leg" home leg coming from? I can't find 1 example for him at both Villareal or Malaga. Sure, he had plenty of 0-0 in group stages and the 4 against United in 5/6 and 8/9 are testimony to that. But the group stages are a different beast.

You've answered your own question mate because the Group Stages are decided on head to head if the team's are level.
Like I said, I'm not a Pellegrini apologist, but that's how he set his teams up for the home games.
 

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