The theory is partly correct, it was also helped by the fact we had strangled the IRA in the province and they couldn't move without us knowing exactly what they were doing. They were beaten and they knew it.
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There's a growing tendency to overstate the position of Britain vis-a-vis the Republicans at that time.
It's nonsense for a number of reasons:
1) Irish Republicanism has never been dependent upon British weakness. (Although, some of its defining moments occurred during times of British distraction (eg 1916). The concept of Romantic Idealism is intrinsically entwined with Irish Republicanism and it alone offers a summary dismissal if the notion that the IRA were forced into a corner by the might and expertise of the British military and political system. (This, I say, not to entirely dismiss Britain's role in facilitating the peace process for even a second but to point out that nothing Britain has ever done; no position of strength it has ever had, has ever brought Irish Republicanism to heel).
The following points also back up my argument that the suggestion that Britain had manoeuvred the IRA into a surrender is fatuous at best (and both mendacious and triumphalist at worst).
2)The Endgame in Ireland began at a time when the IRA was at its strongest point, in terms of numbers, education and resources, ever. (The conventional wisdom is that the leadership realised that they could take the armed struggle no further and had nothing to lose by responding to the British governments earlier approaches).
3) It was the UK government which first broached the idea of peace talks. (Albeit courier five years earlier and they were rejected). What prompted the IRA turnaround? See point 2 but also consider the socio-economic upturn in the Republic of Ireland. They wanted some of the Celtic Tiger economy. In other words, greed. (Not that they were the only ones so motivated).
4) Thatcher's incompetent mishandling of the Hunger Strikes, less than a decade earlier and Internment long before that, meant that the IRA had no fear of jails. They saw theas excellent recruitment and training grounds. There's no way that prison (or death and the creation of martyrs) was a motivational factor.
5) The Omagh bomb - carried out by a tiny fraction of dissidents, after McGuiness & Co had negotiated a ceasefire, proves beyond doubt that Britain was not in control of the situation by any stretch.
Apologies (sincerely so) if any of the above sounds like my own Irish triumphalism. That is genuinely not my intention. I'm just discounting a growing myth of British triumphalism.
Frankly, the day is too far away before any of us can start taking credit for the debacle of Northern Ireland and/or pretending that either side "won".